So it'll be a bit longer than a few years.... probably 10-20 unless some massive public works project comes along up upgrade the US tele-comm infrastructure.
I had to comment on this.. I tried to leave it alone, lol, but I couldn't resist.. I don't disagree that 4k is a ways off, but I do disagree that the same things that held back HDTV are holding 4k back.
Actually, there is more than enough bandwidth, the overhaul has been going on for nearly 2 decades and is closer than you think. There hasn't been much fiber optic laid in the last 8 years, but that is because every major telecom company spent BILLIONS dropping fiber everywhere, right up until about a year before the recession hit hard, much of which is in the ground and not even being used yet. At one point in about 2008 it was estimated that 75% of the fiber optic in the ground was "unlit" and laying dormant. Cable and phone companies have been going under left and right and billions of dollars was lost in bankruptcies as these companies tried to stay afloat and eventually sold off for pennies on the dollar after getting protection from the debts in bankruptcy court. Now you have a handful of larger cable and phone companies holding the ball and they are starting to utilize it. Most major metro areas have 50Mbps of bandwidth available through cable for around $50 per month. Even here in the middle of nowhere, we get 30 Mbps for what I used to pay for 5Mbps. And on the business front where you have QoS and 10 mbps is 10 mbps guaranteed (and usually a little more), the prices have dropped even further (in comparison) and the larger pipes have become super affordable comparitively. I can get 20-30 Mbps (up AND down simultaneously) with full QoS and bursts up to twice that for the price I paid for 4Mbps 10 years ago.
So what is holding it back? Well, for starters, right now, there isn't a 4k standard format. It is just like the beginning of HD where the owners of the media want major copyright protections built in, there are a lot of players trying to push their own version of what they think the format should be, and as a result, there is virtually no media available. Furthermore, unlike bluray and HD-dvd, there isn't a portable storage format already on the market. They are relying on hard drive or solid state storage, and while it is getting cheaper, it is severely limiting the flexibility of the format. Only enthusiasts keep large media storage at home, and there isn't any mass produced retail set top boxes available to store your content. Even with the bandwidth infrastructure available outside the home, too many people don't have adequate infrastructure inside the home to support streaming it to their TV. And even if content and infrastructure in the home WAS ready and available, the companies set up to deliver media through streaming are not yet capable doing 4k, which will take 4 times the bandwidth as 1080p, which takes twice the bandwidth that most "HD" streams take (which are mostly 1080i or 720p upscaled), which takes 4 times the bandwidth that a normal resolution (480 line) "dvd quality" stream (ie what Netflix does now) takes.. Until these things are all worked out, the content will not be available or easily accessible. It is something of a catch 22, but despite these issues, I believe something is coming that will break this loose...
I would put money on it that within 5 years, a 1080p lcd tv will be "entry level", and 4k will be the standard resolution. In the next couple years you won't see but a handful of titles come out for 4k specifically, and it will be at least 4 years before "4k" starts to become a desirable format for media companies to embrace. But people won't even care that when they spend all the money to get a 4k tv and a receiver capable of 4k, and cables capable of 4k that they still won't see any improvement in quality. They will be "future proofed" for another decade, and that will be worth the price they paid to "upgrade" their tv, simply because they got burned on VHS, they got burned on DVD, and they know they will be burned on BluRay when the format shifts again, and this time they want to be prepared. By the time the format is "standard" though, titles will be flooding the shelves (or the virtual storage spaces), and everyone with a VHS, DVD, and BluRay of their favorite movies will once again be paying $30 to get it in the latest format. The irony is that unless they have over a 60" screen, they won't even notice the difference even once they HAVE a true "4k" source.
So while I do indeed believe it is going to be 10 years or maybe a little more before your BluRay collection is looked at the same way a VHS collection is looked at now, I defer back to my earlier post - it is only "a few years" away. You will wake up tomorrow and it will be 2018 and you will turn on your 32" 4k tv to watch a 480p broadcast of the morning news...