Okay, so here's what I did.
I bought a generic GunCon2 compatible gun and plugged it into a USB port, and to the TV composite in. From the computer I put the s-video into an s-video/composite adapter (I couldn't find an s-video splitter yet). I installed the latest driver, and because it said I didn't have TABCTL32.OCX I downloaded the "full install" control panel and register TABCTL32.OCX with regsvr32.
The TV only registers I'm pointing the gun at it if I hold it like 6 inches away, and then it's wobbly and crazy and off by several inches. I tried calibrating it with the control panel but it didn't make a difference, and who knows if I calibrated it right.
Another possible problem is my cab has smoked plexiglass.
I read through every page of this topic and most of Smog's original release blog, but all the information has filled my head like angry fire ants and in the end I'm still very confused.
What I'm trying to do is figure out if the problem is with the gun, the plexiglass, or the driver/installation of the driver, or some combination of the above. Any insight would be appreciated.