The problem is nothing good has been released on either format yet.
A quick check on Amazon and it looks like there are plenty of good movies on both formats, here's a few that I noticed
Good movies on Blu-Ray:
Blade Runner
The Untouchables
Goodfellas
Unforgiven
Good movies on HD DVD
The Thing
2001
The Shining
Casino
Casablanca
Apollo 13
some that I listed may be on both formats, I was just scanning the lists of movies out on each and picked a few good ones from each list.
Sombody has some .. ahem... unique takes on what a good (read commercially viable) movie is.
Going down your list.
Blade Runner: I'll give you it's a fantasic film, unfortunately it's 25 years old and only considered good by scifi geeks.
The Untouchables: Overrated pos gangster film made popular in recent years by brain dead gangsta rappers.
Goodfellas: See above (although this one is reasonably better)
Unforgiven: Semi obscure western that just like blade runner is a fantastic film, but only appreciated by western geeks.
The Thing: The scifi classic that pop culture has totally forgotten. Again only appreciated by hardcore horror geeks.
2001: For the most part nobody really understands this film. Only film-school students have it in their permenant collection.
The Shining: Nothing wrong with this one, it's actually a good movie that sells well. Unfortunately it's around 30 years old at this point.
Casino: Crap
Casablanca: Do you really think people are going to want a hd version of a grainy black and white film?
Apollo 13: I like it, the academy likes it, unfortunately I'm not so sure anybody else liked it. Not that it didn't do well mind you, but that's about all it did, well.
These are all film-lovers (read early adopters) films.
And these are just my opinions so I don't need somebody jumping all over me defending their favorite film or anything. Actually I like most of these films personally, but as a realist I understand that unless you don't have these dvds already these probably aren't top-shelf films you are willing to buy all over again in hd format.
Crazy popular films Like Star Wars and Lord of the Rings have yet to pick sides. Once they do, it will be films like these, like it or not that will determine the winning format. Sony is the only real un-bending backer of blue-ray and while they do have some blockbusters they aren't deal breakers. Same way with Hd-dvd and Universal. That studio has certainly made some good films over the years, but not epic ones. Keep in mind that sony put a great deal of effort in promoting mini-disc and umd formats using this method of releasing their products only in their fomats and outside of japan they failed miserably in both instances. New Line, Lucasflim and Parmount have yet to lock in on a side and since those are the three companies that make films people actually care to watch again, this isn't over by a long shot.
About the exclusive backers comment. I'm not sure about the other two, but Disney is definately not backing blueray exclusively. They just signed a big deal to deliver all of their films in hd via xbox live. Since m$ is a big hd-dvd backer I would guess they they are still testing the waters at this point.
Also having a hd-tv or even a ps3/360 does NOT make you a potential buyer so I'm not so sure the number of sets out there really matters yet. Ever seen these surverys they periodically do amongst people that
already own said devices? Generally around 40% (this is just an approx figure) of these people either don't know what hd is or that their device can do it. Of the remaining 60% around 20-30% don't or can't use the devices hd capabilities yet. Also the percentage of people that buy a console just to watch hd content is very very low. Of course dedicated players are different, but in closing and trying to wrangle this mess of a thread back on topic....
I don't really think the fact that the ps3 is a blueray player and the 360 isn't has anything to do with the ps3's success or lack there of. Now the fact that the ps3's blueray drive is what makes it so damn expensive probably does, but I'm sure that that's offset by the fact that japan laps up any sony format and will buy a system just to get a cheap player. Then again it's not doing so well in japan either.
So why would someone want a ps3 (right now) again?