UFC 81

[CCM]

Anyone else planning on watching the PPV this Saturday?   Should be a good one.  We'll finally get to see what Lesnar can do against a quality opponent.

[ChadTower]

I will watch it.

[chopps]

I'll be watching.   First UFC ive ordered since Hughes vs Gracie.  Looking forward to see how Brock will do.

[ChadTower]

IMO, it all depends on which Frank Mir shows up.  There's the world class Frank Mir and the lazy where's my check Frank Mir.  The real fighter might be able to deal with Lesnar on the ground - the lazy one doesn't stand a chance in hell.

[odysseyroc]

This is one of those fights that isn't going to tell us a whole lot about either guy. If Mir wins, it's nothing more than a win over a guy with 1 fight under his belt. If Lesnar wins, it's a win against a guy who has been in decline since his motorcycle accident. I'm interested in this fight, but I'm even more interested in Sylvia vs Nog.

[ChadTower]

If Lesnar wins it will at least prove he has the tools to hang with a top submission artist.  Even when Lazy Mir shows up he can submit all but the top guys at any moment.

I just don't see a whole ton of guys in Lesnar's size range that have any name value right now that would be reasonable matchups for him.  The UFC isn't exactly stacked with high quality 260lb guys.  They don't have much of a heavyweight ladder.  Other than Mir, they'd have to start him with an actual contender, and that just isn't realistic if they want to keep Lesnar as a valuable property.

[odysseyroc]

They didn't need to have him fight a name fighter. This is set up to be a showcase fight for Lesnar. They are hoping the same Mir that was TKO'ed by Pe De Pano shows up. Also, other than Sylvia, Mir hasn't really submitted anybody worth mentioning. I think that Mir's reputation was enhanced by fighting in one of the weakest HW divisions ever.

Lesnar really shouldn't be headlining an MMA event yet. He should be fighting somebody like Heath Herring or Eddie Sanchez on the undercard and getting some experience/wins. If he's headlining cards now, who does he fight if he beats Mir? They are risking having to push him without letting him develop.

The whole card looks pretty good for UFC 81, so I can't wait till saturday.

[ChadTower]

They didn't need to have him fight a name fighter.

They did if they want to use him to get PPV buys.  They need buzz in the heavyweight division ASAP - Couture's departure hurts them badly.  This is what they had up their sleeve.  It may not be best for Lesnar's development but it is what the UFC had to do short term.  Lesnar really can't lose - if he gets submitted, he's just not ready yet.  No one will call him a flop for getting submitted by Frank Mir.

Lesnar really shouldn't be headlining an MMA event yet.

I can't see him headlining a card that has Sylvia-Nogueira and Jeremy Horn on it.  They're pushing Lesnar hard on Spike to attract the pro wrestling audience but I haven't see a ton of Lesnar in the other usual media the UFC uses.  No more than the other fighters, anyway.

FWIW, I mostly agree with you - they're trying to walk the line between using his name value and not headlining him.  It seems more confusing than anything else.

[Chemixtry]

I can't see him headlining a card that has Sylvia-Nogueira and Jeremy Horn on it.

Jeremy Horn - that dude used to be so good but he has been lackluster lately. I saw him fight live at Art of War 3 in Dallas he put on a disappointing show. If Brock wins I would like to see him go up against a quality striker like Cheik Kongo or Arlovski.

[ChadTower]

Kongo has gone to decision his last 3 fights - and lost one of them.  He would probably get destroyed by a grappler with the size and accomplishments of Lesnar.

That said, he may just be a good next opponent whether Lesnar wins or loses, if they are determined to build Lesnar as the top name property he has the potential to be.

Lesnar isn't anywhere near ready for Arlovski.  Arlovski has some losses now but look who they're to... Sylvia, Rizzo, Rico Rodriguez...

[Chemixtry]

I also think Lesnar versus Josh Barnett would be interesting if they could get him into the UFC again

[odysseyroc]

Kongo has gone to decision his last 3 fights - and lost one of them.  He would probably get destroyed by a grappler with the size and accomplishments of Lesnar.

That said, he may just be a good next opponent whether Lesnar wins or loses, if they are determined to build Lesnar as the top name property he has the potential to be.

Lesnar isn't anywhere near ready for Arlovski.  Arlovski has some losses now but look who they're to... Sylvia, Rizzo, Rico Rodriguez...

Arlovski is most likely gone from the UFC after he fights O'Brien. I think they sort of buried him, because he got boring after Sylvia KO'ed him.

[ChadTower]

Heh.  I have no idea why they keep Sylvia around.  Crowds boo him.  His fights are as boring as MMA gets.  He doesn't even try to do damage anymore - all he does is stand on the outside and jab.  Sure, he wins, but he can't sell PPV buys.  They had to stick Brock Lesnar on this one to make up for Sylvia being the main event.

[havic626]

Ill wait till the next day and d/l off bt 

[Jouster]

I had never even heard of Lesnar prior to the last PPV when they promo'd this one.  And I still couldn't give a crap about some roided up actor...excuse me, wrestler. 

Jouster

[ChadTower]

So placing second in NCAA Div 1 in 1999 and winning it in 2000 don't do anything for you?

In a funny bit of info... the guy who beat Lesnar in 1999 for that championship?  Stephen Neal, starting guard, New England Patriots.   

[odysseyroc]

I think Lesnar is going to win on saturday and I think he's got the tools to become really good. Most MMA fans are mad that he gets to go to the front of the line with no real MMA experience. Chad is correct about him having  legit wrestling credentials.

[CCM]

I had never even heard of Lesnar prior to the last PPV when they promo'd this one.  And I still couldn't give a crap about some roided up actor...excuse me, wrestler. 

Jouster

I'm sure he's roided plenty in his day, but you can't deny his legit wrestling skill.  His biggest problem will be defending Mir's submissions.   I think Mir is a great test to see if Lesnar is for real or not.

[CCM]

Good article about Mir:

http://www.mmaweekly.com/absolutenm/templates/dailynews.asp?articleid=5579&zoneid=2

He is confident about his chances facing Lesnar, but he’s also realistic as to what he needs to do to pull off a win in this pivotal heavyweight match-up.

“Definitely a finish cause that’s the only way I’m going to win,” said Mir. “I’m not going to out-wrestle Lesnar for 15 minutes and put him on his back and hold him down. So for me to win I either have to take his arm or neck, or knock him upside his head.”

[odysseyroc]

I'm sure he's roided plenty in his day, but you can't deny his legit wrestling skill.  His biggest problem will be defending Mir's submissions.   I think Mir is a great test to see if Lesnar is for real or not.

a good wrestler who's been seriously training in avoiding submission is really hard to submit. That's why Mark Kerr was Abu Dhabi champ back in the days. He'd just take guys down and kill their movement. If you can't move your hips, you ain't submitting anybody.

Depending on how good Lesnar's boxing is, this fight might never even hit the ground.

[ChadTower]

a good wrestler who's been seriously training in avoiding submission is really hard to submit. That's why Mark Kerr was Abu Dhabi champ back in the days. He'd just take guys down and kill their movement. If you can't move your hips, you ain't submitting anybody.

It's also damn near impossible to submit someone with the strength of a pissed off bear.  You have to get it quickly and perfectly or they just rip the limb out.

[CCM]

a good wrestler who's been seriously training in avoiding submission is really hard to submit. That's why Mark Kerr was Abu Dhabi champ back in the days. He'd just take guys down and kill their movement. If you can't move your hips, you ain't submitting anybody.

It's also damn near impossible to submit someone with the strength of a pissed off bear.  You have to get it quickly and perfectly or they just rip the limb out.

I wouldn't say it's damn near impossible, there's plenty of strong mma fighters that have been submitted.  Kevin Randlmen, Mark Kerr, Bob Sapp, Jeff Monson have all been submitted.  The strength of 'a pissed off bear' isn't gonna be enough to avoid submissions.

Alot of people believe that pound for pound Matt Hughes is one of the strongest fighters in mma and he's been submitted.

You can be the strongest guy in the world and if you can't defend submissions, you're in trouble.

Now, I'm not saying that Lesnar doesn't have good submission defense (I don't think any of us know that based on his one fight), I'm just saying that brute strength alone won't save you.

[ChadTower]

He doesn't have brute strength alone.  Combine the strength with the wrestling ability and that is a very different story.

Did you really put Bob Sapp into this?    

[shardian]

You can be the strongest guy in the world and if you can't defend submissions, you're in trouble.

Example: UFC IV - Dan Severn Vs. Joyce Gracie. Severn was an excellent wrestler, was big, and strong as a bear. He lost because he wasn't a good striker, and he didn't know how to defend submissions. However, he learned that stuff and went on to be very sucessful in MMA.

When I think of Brock Lesnar in MMA, I compare him most closely to Dan Severn.

[ChadTower]

You can't compare the guys from that era with the guys from today.  The sport has evolved too far.  That was proven pretty conclusively when Royce Gracie got his ass handed to him by Matt Hughes - that fight wasn't even close.

There is just no way Lesnar is going to come in without having learned decent submission defense.  He's been working over a year for this and has world class trainers teaching him.  If that were to happen they should all leave MMA and never return.

[CCM]

Did you really put Bob Sapp into this?    

   he may have been a reach...


 

[ChadTower]

So Lesnar got caught... it was pretty much win-win for the UFC.  Lesnar does more than enough to prove he is for real.  Mir wins a really tough one decisively and jumps right back into the heavyweight title picture.  Mir is younger than Lesnar.  Now instead of one potential monster they get a potential monster that reasonably needs more work and the return of a former heavyweight champion that is still only 28.

Lesnar needs more work on submission defense and gameplan execution.  He kept leaving his limbs way out there and using power to yank them out of danger.  That may work against 99% of jiu jitsu guys on the planet but it won't work against Frank Mir.  A guy like Nogueria would finish him even faster.

It was good to see both guys classy after the fight.  The boos for Lesnar turned to cheers when he was all class and props for Mir in the post fight interview.

[shardian]

So Lesnar got caught... it was pretty much win-win for the UFC.  Lesnar does more than enough to prove he is for real.  Mir wins a really tough one decisively and jumps right back into the heavyweight title picture.  Mir is younger than Lesnar.  Now instead of one potential monster they get a potential monster that reasonably needs more work and the return of a former heavyweight champion that is still only 28.

Lesnar needs more work on submission defense and gameplan execution.  He kept leaving his limbs way out there and using power to yank them out of danger.  That may work against 99% of jiu jitsu guys on the planet but it won't work against Frank Mir.  A guy like Nogueria would finish him even faster.

It was good to see both guys classy after the fight.  The boos for Lesnar turned to cheers when he was all class and props for Mir in the post fight interview.

I watched that fight this morning. At  a minute thirty, it didn't take much out of my day. That fight served as a clinic as to how absolutley impressive and dominating jiu jitsu can be. The dude knew he didn't have a prayer fighting, so he just went for any submission he could sneak into. That was crazy that Lesnar just shook off that arm bar. He will be scary good once he learns to defend against submissions. And like I said before, it was the EXACT same outcome as Dan Severn's fight with Gracie 9not technically, but the situation was the same). Lesnar was dominant, but the submission expert took a beating and latched on at the first opening.

Lesnar will come back and do much better next time.

[ChadTower]

I was surprised at how out of control Lesnar was... that has to be inexperience.  He would get on top and instead of gaining a solid body control, which would be easy with his bulk, he'd just press Mir down and start dropping hammer fists.  Only once did he spin for a better position - and he did it with startling ease.  It really looked like adrenaline got the best of Lesnar and he didn't execute his gameplan very well.  I think that lack of control is what cost him the fight more than anything else.

[shardian]

I was surprised at how out of control Lesnar was... that has to be inexperience.  He would get on top and instead of gaining a solid body control, which would be easy with his bulk, he'd just press Mir down and start dropping hammer fists.  Only once did he spin for a better position - and he did it with startling ease.  It really looked like adrenaline got the best of Lesnar and he didn't execute his gameplan very well.  I think that lack of control is what cost him the fight more than anything else.

The pull off and penalty probably did more to upset his concentration. When exactly did UFC outlaw head punches anyway?? That has been a staple defense attack since forever. Even recently, remember Tito Ortiz turning Ken Shamrocks head in a likeness of the Toxic Avenger? It appeared to me Mir was taking advantage of that rule to break things up.

[ChadTower]

The pull off and penalty probably did more to upset his concentration. When exactly did UFC outlaw head punches anyway??

Back of the head has been illegal for a long time.  That isn't necessarily a UFC rule - it is an athletic commission rule in most places.  I believe it is illegal in boxing too.  Lesnar hit Mir right in the back of the head - but Mir was turning away at the time.  The ref took the point with zero warnings given.  I've never seen that before except in obviously intentional situations.  It was a terrible call that should have been a verbal warning and not a stoppage at all.

That has been a staple defense attack since forever. Even recently, remember Tito Ortiz turning Ken Shamrocks head in a likeness of the Toxic Avenger? It appeared to me Mir was taking advantage of that rule to break things up.

When that happens in other fights the guy on top will usually stop punching or start throwing punches to the temple/ear with more care.  Lesnar didn't have the personal control to do that.  Of course, if you stay rolled up and don't defend yourself, the ref starts yelling "do something, get out of this" until it happens or the ref stops the fight.  That stoppage may have saved Mir but I don't think he was hurt enough to say it did.

[CCM]

I was surprised at how out of control Lesnar was... that has to be inexperience.  He would get on top and instead of gaining a solid body control, which would be easy with his bulk, he'd just press Mir down and start dropping hammer fists.  Only once did he spin for a better position - and he did it with startling ease.  It really looked like adrenaline got the best of Lesnar and he didn't execute his gameplan very well.  I think that lack of control is what cost him the fight more than anything else.

Yea, I think Lesnar's lack of experience and adrenaline definitely got the best of him.  He had no control whatsoever.   With his size and power he can be great, but he's got some serious work ahead of him.  I hope he learns from this fight that his strength alone won't win him every fight.  If he wants to be a ground and pound fighter, he needs to go watch some Couture tapes and see how it's supposed to be done.

I wonder where the UFC is going to go from here?  Does Mir get a shot a Nogueria next?  With Sylvia losing, I could see Lesnar possibly fighting him next.  And then there's Kongo, if he wins next month he may be in the mix for a title shot.

[CCM]

The ref took the point with zero warnings given.  I've never seen that before except in obviously intentional situations.  It was a terrible call that should have been a verbal warning and not a stoppage at all.

I wonder if the fact that Lesnar was so out of control contributed to the immediate stoppage and point penalty? 

It definitely looked like Mir turned his head and it was a bit too quick of a stoppage, but I seriously doubt that Lesnar would have even heard a warning in the crazy state he was in. 

[ChadTower]

If he wants to be a ground and pound fighter, he needs to go watch some Couture tapes and see how it's supposed to be done.

Why tapes?  If he wants to be a ground and pounder he should go train with Couture.     How cool would it be for the hot ex girlfriend of the heavyweight division to come back with an unstoppable monster to corner?

The adrenaline problem does surprise me a little bit from a guy who has main evented Wrestlemania.  He has been in front of much larger crowds many times more than almost anyone in MMA.  I know it's not the same but the size of the spectacle alone is enough to intimidate a lot of guys.

I wonder where the UFC is going to go from here?  Does Mir get a shot a Nogueria next?  With Sylvia losing, I could see Lesnar possibly fighting him next.  And then there's Kongo, if he wins next month he may be in the mix for a title shot.

I don't think beating a guy in his second fight gets Mir a title shot.  It puts him probably on the second tier - only that high because the division is thin.  A Mir-Sylvia matchup is highly marketable.  They can show Sylvia's arm breaking every 15 seconds for months.

Lesnar needs to fight a bottom tier UFC heavyweight, I think.  He just lost convincingly.  Giving him Sylvia now just doesn't make sense from a ladder perspective. 

It definitely looked like Mir turned his head and it was a bit too quick of a stoppage, but I seriously doubt that Lesnar would have even heard a warning in the crazy state he was in.

It's possible Lesnar wouldn't have heard a warning but the ref still has to follow the rules.  It's not like Mir was semiconscious and in mortal danger.  FWIW, Lesnar did hear the ref call for a stoppage and the ref didn't have to jump in.

[CCM]

Why tapes?  If he wants to be a ground and pounder he should go train with Couture.     How cool would it be for the hot ex girlfriend of the heavyweight division to come back with an unstoppable monster to corner?

That would be phenomenal for Lesnar.  Couture would turn him into a beast!


If not Mir, who's next for Nogueria?  The heavyweight division is so weak right now...  Who are the top guys?

Nogueria
Sylvia
Mir
Kongo
Vera?

Couture is gone, Cro Cop and Herring turned out to be busts, Arlovski seems to be done with the UFC, Gonzaga lost his last 2 fights.
 
If Kongo wins next month,  maybe you give him the shot?



***edited for my lack of quote-fu

[ChadTower]

That would be phenomenal for Lesnar.  Couture would turn him into a beast!

If not Mir, who's next for Nogueria? 

Kongo or Werdum are my guesses.  I would have said Gonzaga but Werdum just beat Gonzaga.  Best guess is that it will be a good while before we see another heavyweight title fight.  There just aren't any compelling matchups right now - the division is too thin. 

Couture is gone, Cro Cop and Herring turned out to be busts, Arlovski seems to be done with the UFC, Gonzaga lost his last 2 fights.

Herring may be a great next opponent for Lesnar.  Another strong name that hasn't lived up to expectations in the UFC - they need to get some revenue out of Herring soon.

If Kongo wins next month,  maybe you give him the shot?

Probably.

[shardian]

Well they could steal Kimbo Slice and let him and Lesnar slug it out. I'd pay to see that.

[Samstag]

I watched that fight this morning. At  a minute thirty, it didn't take much out of my day. That fight served as a clinic as to how absolutley impressive and dominating jiu jitsu can be. The dude knew he didn't have a prayer fighting, so he just went for any submission he could sneak into. That was crazy that Lesnar just shook off that arm bar. He will be scary good once he learns to defend against submissions. And like I said before, it was the EXACT same outcome as Dan Severn's fight with Gracie 9not technically, but the situation was the same). Lesnar was dominant, but the submission expert took a beating and latched on at the first opening.

Look around the nets for a video of the Fedor/Hong-man fight this past New Year's Eve.  Fedor's considered to be the best heavyweight in the world, Hong-man is a 7'2.5" 335 pound monster.  It was a very similar fight.  Pound, pound, pound, arm-bar attempt, pound, pound, arm-bar.

The adrenaline problem does surprise me a little bit from a guy who has main evented Wrestlemania.  He has been in front of much larger crowds many times more than almost anyone in MMA.  I know it's not the same but the size of the spectacle alone is enough to intimidate a lot of guys.

When the outcome is predetermined, the only pressure is worrying about screwing up the choreography.

[ChadTower]

Well they could steal Kimbo Slice and let him and Lesnar slug it out. I'd pay to see that.

Heh.  Slice is under contract to Elite XC, I think.  I have to assume that Lesnar would be able to take Slice without a problem so long as he didn't get caught in the first two seconds.  Lesnar would be able to take him down instantly, like Mir, and Slice wouldn't be a monster on his back. 

When the outcome is predetermined, the only pressure is worrying about screwing up the choreography.

So dancers, singers, actors, etc have no right to be nervous about performing in front of 50,000 people?  Better tell them that.  They seem to disagree.

Mike Goldberg put it really well in the prefight.  Something like "don't think of Lesnar as an actor - this guy is a fighter who took some time off to make money acting and has come back to fight again".  Quite a few top MMA names over the years have made some side cash in pro wrestling.

[CCM]

Well they could steal Kimbo Slice and let him and Lesnar slug it out. I'd pay to see that.

Kimbo is fighting Tank Abbot this month in EliteXC.. that is worth watching just for the circus aspect.