Just because I feel I need to say it, I hope everybody gets that I'm just enjoying the discourse in all this-- nothing malicious here. This conversation is keeping me awake at work. I think BC is a wonderful thing, and companies that care about their customers, all of their customers, should implement it.

That said, I think maybe we need a stronger definition of "casual gamer." I don't think of casual gamers as having a particularly large software library (DaveMMR) and certainly not 400+ games, as in Ginzu's case.
I'd throw out there (and this is
purely conjecture) that casual gamers have, say, 10 to 30 games for a system over the course of it's life (except perhaps if they are casual
sports gamers who buy upgrades for their games every year.) And I highly doubt that they keep all the games they buy; I think they trade them in when the "next game" comes along (I'll come back to that.) I don't think casual gamers spend that much money on gaming (how many Wii buyers are STILL playing WiiSports? a lot, I'd guess... my roommate is...) -- which is why I absolutely agree that most casual gamers only have one system hooked up at a time...
...but that's just it, there's always the "next game." This is why I don't think real casual gamers think about BC. I think they sell the "old junk" to GameStop, or post it on eBay or CL, and then they go out and get the "next game/system" once they can afford it or it has the next "must have" game.
So, going back to what I was saying about digital distribution: the big 3 don't really care what you buy, but they do want to control how you buy it, so they continue to make money. How convenient would it be, especially for our "casual" gamer, if entire libraries of NEW and old games were available for download, at their fingertips, without having to go to the store? That's why the Virtual Console is popular. That's why X-Box Live Marketplace is successful, and even the PSNetwork is beginning to bloom. Continuous, but controlled, content. Rock Band DLC is, and will continue to be, a CASH COW for Harmonix (once they've convinced users to put up the buy-in cost.)
With digital distribution (which is actually just another way of saying "subscription model") becoming the norm on the consoles, the squeeze is on, separating you from your money little by little. BC, and control of what you "own," is on it's way to extinction.
</long winded post>
