I think so too. Frankly, based on the current merits of the systems, I think it's very difficult to make a credible argument for the PS3 over the 360 (at least as a gaming machine).
Still, I think that situation is set to change pretty rapidly. Sony has already passed 360 in worldwide sales, and I think will have done the same in the U.S. by Christmas 09. Beyond that, I think that there are more interesting exclusives on the horizon for Sony (MS has already played most of its exclusive cards, IMO), Sony's got a much better brand, and Sony has BluRay. All of these factors, I think, will make it the system to own down the line.
Probably online, even once Home is released, Sony will only make the gap smaller, but will never outdo 360 in that space. It might force Microsoft to make Live free, though, which would be cool for 360 owners.
Generally speaking, I don't think backward compatibility is an important factor. For me, it is, though, as I "own" an original Xbox and almost every worthwhile game ever released for it. I never had a PS2, though, and there are a few games I missed out on that I'd really like to go back and play. So hopefully, by the time I get a PS3 there will still be at least one model with the partial backward compatibility on the shelves.