Big win for Sony...

[SavannahLion]

Doesn't the HD DVD addon rely on the 360 for processing?  Surely the thing can't stand alone as its own player . . .   

Apparently, it relies on a computer, it doesn't necessarily mean that the computer used for processing needs to be a 360. I might be wrong, but I believe that's how the HD encryption was broken. Somebody hooked up the HD drive to their PC and used a USB sniffer to collect then analyze the packets.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to imply that the 360 HD-DVD drive is a standalone unit. I was just saying that I've yet to personally see anyone actually use the HD-DVD attached to their 360, instead of attaching it to their PC.

[shmokes]

Ah ha. 

In any case, I doubt they'll release a BluRay drive for the 360.  I'm pretty sure that the only reason MS got into the HD DVD market in the first place was the prospect of pushing HD DVD to a win in the format wars.  If they had succeeded, it would cause Sony billions of dollars, and could very well be a death blow to the PS3.  Sony would suddenly have a videogame machine priced a couple hundred dollars more than it needed to be, solely for a feature that was now entirely useless.  I really doubt that the HD DVD add-on drive generated a significant amount of profit (if any).  MS merely wanted to do what they could to help that format, and in the process hurt their competitor in the videogame business.  A BluRay add-on drive for 360 wouldn't hurt Sony (if anything it would put money into Sony's pockets by encouraging people to buy BluRay hardware and movies). 

[ChadTower]

If Sony owns the BluRay patents, and it would require a Sony license to release a BluRay drive, M$ will not be releasing one.  The market is irrelevant.

[somunny]

If Sony owns the BluRay patents, and it would require a Sony license to release a BluRay drive, M$ will not be releasing one.  The market is irrelevant.

Thank you, Mr. Borg.

[patrickl]

It's funny how noone ever seems to realize that Philips is part owner of the CD, DVD and Blu-ray rights. Somehow only Sony gets mentioned for this.

[shmokes]

Even Sony owned the rights exclusively, they'd be happy to grant MS a license.

[ChadTower]

Even Sony owned the rights exclusively, they'd be happy to grant MS a license.

Not if they were so erect for a Blu-Ray/PS3 win that they were willing to take the type of hit we've already been talking about...

[shmokes]

I think they just would.  They know that MS releasing a BluRay add-on for the Xbox 360 is going to have less of an effect on them as MS's HD DVD add-on -- which is to say it would have less of an effect than virtually no effect at all.  The only effect that the drive would have on Sony is that one of Sony's arch competitors is now endorsing a Sony technology, and some of MS's customers would now be buying BluRay movies.  I just don't see it.

[AtomSmasher]

It looks like Warner Bros. switching to BluRay only has sealed the deal for the end of the HD wars. 

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9856126-1.html?part=rss&tag=feed&subj=Crave

The most damning aspect of these numbers is that they do not include the PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on drive--only standalone players. We previously thought HD DVD's only road to victory was by selling tons of cheap standalone HD DVD players, so the fact that relatively expensive Blu-ray players are starting to sell makes it seem like this format war has been officially declared over--by the consumers.

[shardian]

Of course Sony would grant MS a license for Blu-ray. It would serve to undermine HD-DVD anyways. They'll have to anyways when blu-ray drives become available for pc's.

[RetroACTIVE]

I have a PS3 and have been playing around with Blu-Ray movies...

The biggest problem with any HD format is the original print.... Honestly, with my 1080p TV and 1080p upconverted original DVDs... there is not that much of a difference.  In some cases HD movie is actually worse because the mastering process reveals lots of flaws....  My guess... and I'm not an expert, it would be very costly for motion picture studios to scrub original movies to get them to the wow point.  So its going to take a while for this format to s  l  o  w  l  y... replace DVD.  So for that reason I tend to agree... not really a "replacement" format, its a complement, that may ultimately replace standard DVD but not like what happened with VHS to DVD.

FWIW: when your talking about movies from today forward... thats a different story... those Blu-Ray movies do look fantastic.

[shardian]

I have a PS3 and have been playing around with Blu-Ray movies...

The biggest problem with any HD format is the original print.... Honestly, with my 1080p TV and 1080p upconverted original DVDs... there is not that much of a difference.  In some cases HD movie is actually worse because the mastering process reveals lots of flaws....  My guess... and I'm not an expert, it would be very costly for motion picture studios to scrub original movies to get them to the wow point.  So its going to take a while for this format to s  l  o  w  l  y... replace DVD.  So for that reason I tend to agree... not really a "replacement" format, its a complement, that may ultimately replace standard DVD but not like what happened with VHS to DVD.

FWIW: when your talking about movies from today forward... thats a different story... those Blu-Ray movies do look fantastic.

Something else will come along bigger and better well before Blu-ray can supplant DVD.

[RetroACTIVE]

Something else will come along bigger and better well before Blu-ray can supplant DVD.

You got it...

[shmokes]

I doubt there will ever be a physical format that supplants BluRay.  Digital Distribution is where it's at beyond BluRay, IMO.  Beyond that any physical media transporting your movies will probably be devices you personally put the movie on after downloading it, like an iPod or memory card.

[skim36]

I have a PS3 and have been playing around with Blu-Ray movies...

The biggest problem with any HD format is the original print.... Honestly, with my 1080p TV and 1080p upconverted original DVDs... there is not that much of a difference.  In some cases HD movie is actually worse because the mastering process reveals lots of flaws....  My guess... and I'm not an expert, it would be very costly for motion picture studios to scrub original movies to get them to the wow point.  So its going to take a while for this format to s  l  o  w  l  y... replace DVD.  So for that reason I tend to agree... not really a "replacement" format, its a complement, that may ultimately replace standard DVD but not like what happened with VHS to DVD.

FWIW: when your talking about movies from today forward... thats a different story... those Blu-Ray movies do look fantastic.

Agreed, the new movies look awesome.  But saying the old movies don't?  Depending on who releases it I guess.  I have a blu-ray copy of A Clockwork Orange that looks like it came out yesterday.  Looks absolutely beautiful.

[somunny]

I doubt there will ever be a physical format that supplants BluRay.  Digital Distribution is where it's at beyond BluRay, IMO.  Beyond that any physical media transporting your movies will probably be devices you personally put the movie on after downloading it, like an iPod or memory card.

I couldn't disagree more with your opinion.  IMO, there will always be consumers like myself, who enjoy collecting and building a library of retail releases.

[AtomSmasher]

Looks like Netflix is going to phase out their HD DVD's by the end of the year and will be exclusively BluRay after that.

link

[skim36]

Not only Netflix, Here's a link showing Best Buy is phasing out their HD-DVD line.  There's also a link on the site showing HD-DVD's response.

*Edit... I guess Best Buy is recommending blu ray, they will continue to stock HD-DVD for the customers that want them.

http://www.hardocp.com/news.html?news=MzA2MTksLCxoZW50aHVzaWFzdCwsLDE=

[pointdablame]

the HD DVD camp's latest press releases don't even put the positive spin on this stuff like they've been trying to do.  It's really only a matter of time now.

I'm hoping this means stores will blowout the HD DVD stock for next to nothing so I can get some more   

[odysseyroc]

the HD DVD camp's latest press releases don't even put the positive spin on this stuff like they've been trying to do.  It's really only a matter of time now.

I'm hoping this means stores will blowout the HD DVD stock for next to nothing so I can get some more   

Don't forget the people who are panic selling stuff on ebay. Hopefully we'll be able to get stuff for $10 shipped pretty soon.

[shmokes]

IMO, there will always be consumers like myself, who enjoy collecting and building a library of retail releases.

You'll still have a library.  It'll just be stored digitally.  I'm telling you, when it stops making financial sense to distribute them physically, they will distribute them digitally.  Look where computer technology was 10 years ago when the DVD came out (I really don't know when the DVD came out, but . . .)  Now give BluRay 10 years.  You really think it's going to make sense financially to incur the costs of manufacturing the physical media, of paying for the shelf space in warehouses and retail shops?  We're all going to be sitting on 100Mb/sec connections to the internet -- likely faster.  We'll be able to stream HD movies at the touch of a button, and we'll be able to choose from libraries of 10,000, rather than what is sitting in our personal libraries.  Of course, we'll still have personal libraries, but the average person doesn't want to deal with pulling a disc from the shelf and putting it in, when she could just select the movie from a menu and it starts playing immediately. 

Even if there is the odd consumer here and there that would prefer physical media, that consumer will be forced to adapt when the realities of the market make physical distribution unrealistic.  Those realities are fast approaching.

[ahofle]

That's just silly to even suggest the end of physical media in 10 years.  There are still many people using dialup out there.  Hell there are still people without computers.  Not to mention people that do have computers that are too slow/obsolete to be used to stream or play digital content.  Besides, "Video on Demand" has been around for ages -- and I've never seen it having any impact on DVD sales.  It's unfortunate that we seem to be getting to the point in home audio/video where there is a huge disparity between your below average consumer and above average consumer.  That is why I can't see digital media streaming really replacing the "cheap player + physical media that you own" model.

In addition, I highly doubt that any of the movie production companies will be interested in pursuing streaming content that can be stored easily to make your own library.  They are always pushing for renting over owning.  Look at the pathetic attempts of Divx and more recently those lame DVDs that 'expired' after a few viewings.  Until high speed internet is given out for free and streaming players exist for the cost of a cheap DVD player, I doubt you'll see the end of physical media.  Just my opinion anyway.

[Dartful Dodger]

I thought that way 5 years ago, but now I don't think it's going to happen.

Back then the internet was making huge leaps, and I assumed I wouldn't be programming exes for CDs anymore because 650MB could be downloaded instantly.

Currently we programming on DVDs.  We just bought a Bluray writer because one of our clients has a project that's too big for a DVD.  

I think we'll always have some form of storage for our media.  Media storage devices are getting bigger faster than downloading speeds.

Think of how quickly you could fill up your Tivo, imagine how large of a Tivo you'd need to record every movie you'd ever want to own.

If they had 1,000,000GIG devices, we'd find a way to fill them.

[somunny]

IMO, there will always be consumers like myself, who enjoy collecting and building a library of retail releases.

You'll still have a library.  It'll just be stored digitally.  I'm telling you, when it stops making financial sense to distribute them physically, they will distribute them digitally.  Look where computer technology was 10 years ago when the DVD came out (I really don't know when the DVD came out, but . . .)  Now give BluRay 10 years.  You really think it's going to make sense financially to incur the costs of manufacturing the physical media, of paying for the shelf space in warehouses and retail shops?  We're all going to be sitting on 100Mb/sec connections to the internet -- likely faster.  We'll be able to stream HD movies at the touch of a button, and we'll be able to choose from libraries of 10,000, rather than what is sitting in our personal libraries.  Of course, we'll still have personal libraries, but the average person doesn't want to deal with pulling a disc from the shelf and putting it in, when she could just select the movie from a menu and it starts playing immediately. 

Even if there is the odd consumer here and there that would prefer physical media, that consumer will be forced to adapt when the realities of the market make physical distribution unrealistic.  Those realities are fast approaching.

It's a good theory but I think the main problem with it is that you are minimizing the collectors' role in all of it.  People buy dozens, even hundreds of movies and keep them on a shelf somewhere.  Maybe they display them.  These are "average" people, not videophiles.  How many people do you know who have more than 50 dvd's.  I know a lot.  You don't have to be a movie buff to be a collector.  You just have to like buying ---steaming pile of meadow muffin---.

I think the point I'm really trying to make is that most people - the vast majority - like to get something tangible for thier money.  This is an expectation that's not going to simply evaporate over the course of a few years. 

If they make digital media free, or next to it, well...  that's another story.

If they had 1,000,000GIG devices, we'd find a way to fill them.

When I bought my first PC in 95-96, it had a 1GB drive.  I upgraded from an 850mb.  I thought, "How will I ever fill this up?" 

[shmokes]

That's just silly to even suggest the end of physical media in 10 years. 

I agree.  Thank god that's not what I said.  I said that the successor to BluRay would be digital delivery.  I said that there would not be a physical medium that would supplant BluRay that movies would be sold on.  I did not say that people will have stopped using physical media altogether 10 years from now.  They won't.  Not all of them.  But the ones who are still using physical media will just be using BluRay.  People who switch away from BluRay will switch to digital downloads.  Those will be your options.  The vast majority of the market will be ready.  It won't make financial sense to try to market a new physical format when 90% of the moving to digital downloads and most of the rest are people who are perfectly happy with BluRay and probably scared of new technologies.

[Dartful Dodger]

People who switch away from BluRay will switch to digital downloads.  Those will be your options.

I thought the same thing about DVDs 5 years ago.

It's not just the internet connection and media storage technology that dictates what we need. TVs will have a higher resolution and special features will be a required extra for movies too, all of which will require a larger file size.

Looking at reviews for some of the current games, a common issue critics have is the loading time for some of these games.  If a gamer today isn't going to sit 10 seconds for a game to load, someone who wants to watch a 30 gig movie isn't going to wait minutes for that movie to download.

Even now when people download ripped DVDs, they don't make partitions on their hard drive to store the movie, they burn it to DVD.  People, even technically advance people, want a hard copy.  If the state of the art people of today want hard copies, why would the average Joe of tomorrow want a digital copy?

[shmokes]

Because you can buy a 650 GB hard drive today for just over $100.  Just a couple years ago, that was a good price for a 250 GB drive.  In five years the drives that come with your computer will be 6 TB.  People burn the computer to a DVD to save space, or to make the movie portable, not so they can have something physical that they can touch, with the title of the movie scrawled on the top in felt pen.

[Dartful Dodger]

People burn the computer to a DVD to save space, or to make the movie portable, not so they can have something physical that they can touch, with the title of the movie scrawled on the top in felt pen.

Exactly.  I don't think they want to have all these DVDs, they have to have all these DVDs.

5 years ago it took a lot of work to fill a DVD, now any good movie is put on 2 or more DVDs.  The more space available, the more space that will be used.

At the beginning of last year my office bought a 1000gig shared hard drive for the office to use for our current projects.  We use to have a 20gig and it was fine, but every once in a while we'd have to do an emergency backup and delete.

Our TI guy spent yesterday backing up files because there wasn't enough room to copy 50 megs of audio onto it.

It took a year for us to fill 1000gigs, when we were use to working with 20gigs.  When it’s there the space will be used.

Another thing is it’s easier to store a folder full of disposable DVDs on the book shelf than it is to store a device that could be rendered useless if it’s not locked up somewhere.  If your kid gets a hold of the folder at most half of your DVDs are destroyed, if your kid gets a hold of your storage device, they are all destroyed.

I’m not saying that a new format for DVDs is going to replace the Blueray.  But they will need to be contained on something.  I use to get audio books from my public library the books on CD would play in my car stereo, but the newer audio books are on self contained mp3 type players.  I can’t drive with them because they require head phones.  Maybe that’ll be the new media, easier to store than DVDs and right now you can buy a 1 gig flash card for 16 bucks, like you said the prices are just going to keep on dropping.

[shardian]

People burn the computer to a DVD to save space, or to make the movie portable, not so they can have something physical that they can touch, with the title of the movie scrawled on the top in felt pen.

I prefer to have physical discs to browse than just a HD full of stuff. It is what we grew up on, so it is more natural. Same thing with console games, music CD's, etc. Seeing the physical cases/media always brought me a rush. Seeing a screenshot of a movie/game/cd is just not the same, experience wise. Now the next generation won't have that as much since they grew up on iPods.

[SavannahLion]

For a lot of people, I think the whole buy-a-bigger-hard-drive-fill-it-up-buy-a-bigger-hard-drive lemniscate fulfills a deep seated pack-rat nature present in a lot of people. Seriously, given a full hard drive, just how much of that data do people actually access on a regular basis? monthly? yearly? ever?

People burn the computer to a DVD to save space, or to make the movie portable, not so they can have something physical that they can touch, with the title of the movie scrawled on the top in felt pen.

I prefer to have physical discs to browse than just a HD full of stuff. It is what we grew up on, so it is more natural. Same thing with console games, music CD's, etc. Seeing the physical cases/media always brought me a rush. Seeing a screenshot of a movie/game/cd is just not the same, experience wise. Now the next generation won't have that as much since they grew up on iPods.

Same here. The WiiStore is a neat concept and a great way to introduce a new generation to older games, but I still like the feeling of browsing through a nice big collection of older game titles on a physical medium.

[shardian]

I'd say this battle is over. Walmart has officially sided with Blu-Ray and will phase out HD-DVD by June.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/15/technology/wal-mart_blu-ray/index.htm?cnn=yes

[ChadTower]

I've never understood why one has to die.  What the eff does it matter if there are two formats?  Some people will buy one, others the other. 

[shardian]

I've never understood why one has to die.  What the eff does it matter if there are two formats?  Some people will buy one, others the other. 

Retailers don't want to purchase and stock two different formats of the same product.

[ChadTower]

Retailers don't want to purchase and stock two different formats of the same product.

I can buy multiple brands of underpants in several styles and shapes.  I have both Hot Wheels and Matchboxes.  My wife has 658 different brand bottles of shampoo.  Go to Walmart and there are 25 TVs of nearly identical function from 15 different brand names in every size.

Two formats of DVD are supposed to be any different?

[shardian]

Two formats of DVD are supposed to be any different?

Yep.

[ChadTower]

I just thought of something.  Can you even watch a Bluray disc on a regular TV?  Does the standard Bluray player downconvert the signal if necessary?  Or will it point at you, laugh, and call you Magoo?

[Daniel B.]

Most bluray players will downscale (sometimes...to 480p!) if you aren't using a hdcp token compliant hdmi cable.

[ChadTower]

Most bluray players will downscale (sometimes...to 480p!) if you aren't using a hdcp token compliant hdmi cable.

So does that mean they have component outputs?  I haven't seen many SD TVs with HDMI inputs.

[Dartful Dodger]

I have both Hot Wheels and Matchboxes.

There are other miniature replica car brands, but those brands don't have the rights to replicate any of the models of the big car companies.  I guess that's why you don't own any of those brands.  I guess that's why the stores you shop at don't carry any of those brands.

Walmart sells those brands of cars.  I guess Walmart thinks people are willing to pay 20 cents for a Forb or a Chavy toy car, but not willing to pay 20 bucks for a Transmorphers HD-DVD.

[ChadTower]

Walmart sells those brands of cars.  I guess Walmart thinks people are willing to pay 20 cents for a Forb or a Chavy toy car, but not willing to pay 20 bucks for a Transmorphers HD-DVD.

The people who make DVDs don't own the movies either.  They license the titles.  the license could easily be sold to anyone who wants to make a DVD.  The only reason it is not is that everyone wants to force market exclusivity.  Meanwhile, we have to put up with a holy war over whether the disc is blue or grey and has this logo or that logo.  I personally don't give a crap either way.  Put them both in the store, I say.