Core gamers are a unique demographic insofar that they'll wait in line and buy just about everything. And how much do you want to bank that a good portion of those people you saw waiting in line weren't keeping their consoles?
In core gamers households, multiple consoles fall short as being expected. And you know what, I still stand by my, "niche," comment. You know why? Because it's an entire segment of the market that remained largely untapped for
years. It's everything
outside of the 18-35 male crowd. As far as home consoles are concerned, it's niche and Wii is apparently doing a damn good job of filling it at this point.
Your ideas about competition are simplistic and incomplete at best. In the last generation of game consoles I owned a Gamecube and an Xbox (and a Dreamcast). In the generation before that I owned a Nintendo 64 and a Playstation.
Who cares what you owned in the past? Wanna see my console library? I've got at least two different systems of every generation starting with the 2600. Unlike many people, I kept them all. I don't throw that fact out on the table, but if you want it, it's there.
If I am a PS3 owner who also owns a Wii, and I have money to buy only one game I'm faced with a dilemma.
I'm having a little trouble finding a PS3 owner that only has the money to buy one game.
I'm sure the Wii does impact PS3 sales, but I don't see it being as competitive as you make it out to be. The impact the Wii would have on PS3 game sales is small. Far smaller than a similar impact the 360 would have. It goes right back to the target consumer. You and I both know PS3's are
expensive. What are the chances of a poor PS3 owner who doesn't have the disposable income to buy the games they want, when they want? Last Sunday, my friends boyfriend went out and bought a PS3 with five or six games and a full complement of extra controllers. Here's the kicker, on a whim, he saw and purchased a Wii, four or five games and a full complement of controller sets. IMHO, he blew a shitload of money for nothing, but whatever. Point is, he has disposable income coming out the whazoo. It's not likely he would've purchased 15 PS3 games if he didn't see the Wii there.
I see the current competition somewhat similar to the Neo Geo vs Genesis/SNES era. I don't think there was anybody who really considered the Neo Geo as a competitor to Genesis or SNES. The demographics were just too far apart. There was definately some overlap between the two. I never met an Neo Geo owner who didn't own another console. Would anybody consider the Neo Geo as taking sales away from the other consoles? Sure, I'm sure there were a few "lost" sales like what you're talking about between the current generation. But people who owned a Neo Geo have too much disposable income to really go, "gee! I don't have enough money this month, which game should I get? A $200 Neo Geo cart or a $50 SNES cart?
Core gamers are picking up the Wii because it covers a different range of games. Nintendo is banking the real money on the non-core gamers. Those who aren't very likely to own two current gen consoles.
Shmokes, to put it simply, I agree with you about the end assessment of the Wii market and how ---smurfing--- HUGE it's going to be. I just don't agree with your arrival at that assessment.