I've noticed another thing that might be a detriment to HD-DVD as a format. Everywhere I look, I see these "HD DVD" players, but what they really mean is they're just upconverting standard DVD players that ouput in 720p or 1080i. That right there can cause a lot of confusion. It's just a plain old-fashioned DVD disc. Even retailers seem to get the two confused sometimes.
When people say "Blu-Ray" you know exactly what they mean. You don't have to ask yourself, "Ok now which one is this?"
People said Blu-Ray would have trouble with name recognition, but it sure beats the HD-DVD name confusion. Learning a new name isn't hard, anyways. People had to learn DVD back in the day when they were used to VHS, but it seemed to take off just fine. Now it's the standard.
I've heard stories of Microsoft not signing drivers for Blu-Ray optical drives, but that's going to make more enemies than friends if Blu-Ray does succeed. Eventually they'll just have to conceed. In the meantime, Blu-Ray has Apple support (as minor as that may seem).
Besides, MS has been getting chewed out lately for all their new DRM - not something you want associated with your brand spanking new optical format. Of Blu-Ray has similar copy protection, but it doesn't make the headlines like MS does.