Bye-bye Blu-Ray...we hardly knew ye

[leapinlew]

Also -

I'm not ready for HD in any format. I'm fine with DVD's. I'm ready for one of the formats to go away and all future titles to be released on a disc that contains both HD and SD. I think thats the only way for one of these formats to gain hold. I might be in the minority here - but I don't see a real upgrade from SD to HD.

You should get your eyes checked then.  The difference is there, and it's very noticable.  make sure you watch HD content on an HD set though, not on that 25" CRT....

 

Obviously the difference isn't that noticeable. I just said I didn't notice it. If you have to convince me it's there - it's not. I do have my eyes examined - and I need glasses. Even with them on, I don't see all the hype. If the picture is sharper - it isn't THAT much sharper. Not enough to justify the expense of replacing my catalog and equipment.

Going from tape to digital makes sense. Lots of advantages. Going from digital to better digital just doesn't do it for me. If you see the difference as worth it, good for you, but it doesn't mean everyone else does.

[pointdablame]

Responding to responses. 

#1.  Yes the blueray players can be combo drives, that is a given, but hddvd players don't need two lasers to play dvds as it is an expasion of the format.  In other words, when you buy a blueray combo drive, you pay not only for the expensive blue laser, but the traditional red one as well.  On top of that combo drives are expensive to begin with.  So I'll repeat what I said in more clearer terms.... stand alone hddvd players are backwards compatable, while blueray players are not. 

Just a note.  HD-DVD uses a 405 nanometer blue laser. HD-DVD uses a similar blue laser like BluRay, despite it's name.  That was the crux of my statement, and the reason you are wrong.  Prices are falling though anyway, so it's not really a huge deal.

#2.  Sony did not make cd or dvd formats, nor did they "help" to make them.  I'm not talking about what they USED, I'm talking about what they MADE.  Any format that sony designs is doomed to failure.  I don't know why, maybe they are cursed, but they've never made a successful, universal format.  Yes schmokes as crazy as it sounds, the fact that sony made it could doom the format.  It has nothing to do with my dislike of sony though, they just tend to produce bad technology, or technology that isn't cost-effective ect....  At least when it comes to storage formats, they make great televisions. 

I guess you can play semantics about "made" and standardized or what have you.. but the fact is that Sony and Philips standardized the Compact Disc format.  Go read up on it.  It's not like I'm just pulling it from thin air.  They were also in the DVD consortium, which is a far different situation from creating the format, but they still had a critical role in the adoption and creation of the format as we know it.

But yeah, they really are pretty horrible at going it alone when it comes to media formats.

#4. ...And no I didn't come out acting like I know which one is going to win, I said right in my post that a curve ball could come around and change the tide, BUT as is it's all hddvd.

This just lead me to believe you had some insight to it no one else did....

hd dvd is going to win, for the following reasons....

All I was saying is IF there is to be a winner it'll be hddvd.

Seems like a bit of clairvoyance to me.

Some good points though, and I agree with all about the indifference.

[Barry Barcrest]

Total Hi-Def discs.... Nuff Said.

[Harry Potter]

I can't believe this but I'm on the same opinion of HD as Chad.

Couldn't really care less until the stuff gets way cheaper and bug have been hammered out of it. As far as DVDs were concerned, I got my first player 18 months ago. Sure it wasn't the cheapest (one of the first with DVI outputs) but the quality of the DVI output was worth it.

I'm gonna wait to see who the last man (disc ) standing in this one before going ahead with any purchase.

And I can't give a crap about HD broadcasts myself. Not because I'm blind, but because I have about 100 channels on Cable TV in SD with good content as opposed to commercial HD-TV with 5 channels of bull-crap.

[AlanS17]

I guess I fall into the early adopter camp, but I still haven't bought a hi-def player for myself yet. I'm waiting to find out which format will win. If a clear winner is decided (or at least it becomes apparent that there won't be a winner) then I won't feel bad about dropping $500 for a quality player. I use Netflix anyways, so the cost of discs doesn't bother me. Chances are, though, that I would just buy a PS3 and go BluRay if it comes out as a tie.

I've got an HDTV and a DirecTV HD Tivo. There's no turning back for me. Anything in SD just looks blurry to me now. I just ought a new Onkyo A/V receiver with dual HDMI input and analog-to-digital upconversion with HDMI output so I'm really jumping in head first. I say "bring on the HD"!

[boykster]

With every new technology, there will be early adopters and those that follow behind.  With the new HD disc formats, I'm NOT an early adopter, but I am interested in the battle as it is, and in due time will accept whatever the new standard is.

I don't see broadband at this time as a real competitor to true full bandwidth 1080p HD distribution of movies on physical media.  Until we all have fibre to the house, its just not a feasible solution.  Even downloading full resolution DVD's isn't real-time. 

As far as the quality difference, sure that's subjective.  If you don't see any advantage, then that's fine for you.  I have a 720p native projector and several other HD compatible displays (3 plasmas and pair of LCD tv's).  A well mastered DVD looks good on these sets, but there is a distinct difference between a true HD source and a well mastered dvd.  I have a very nice dvd player (panasonic RP-82), have experimented with several upconverting dvd players, and use a HTPC for most movie playback.  I use ffdshow for processing and upconversion on my HTPC and output pixel perfect resolutions for my projector. 

I've done blind A-B tests with DVD vs HD content (same programming) and the HD content always wins by a landslide.

I frankly don't care which tech wins.  I personally find blu-ray technically superior, but would prefer sony to lose mostly due to the fact that they shut down lik-sang.  Long live HD-DVD!!!!!

[shmokes]

I will not trust your judgment until you've conducted some double-blind tests.

[crashwg]

How does one conduct a blind test of video quality anyways?

[ChadTower]

I can't believe this but I'm on the same opinion of <anything> as Chad.

I hear that a lot, like I'm a child molestor or Rush Limbaugh.

And I can't give a crap about HD broadcasts myself. Not because I'm blind, but because I have about 100 channels on Cable TV in SD with good content as opposed to commercial HD-TV with 5 channels of bull-crap.

Other than the NFL and 24, nothing I watch is broadcast in HD, and even then it's only some of the NFL available in HD (most of Sunday Ticket is not).  And I'm not willing to pay the heavy price of upgrading dish, receivers, Tivos, and televisions to get a bit more resolution. 

Chances are, though, that I would just buy a PS3 and go BluRay if it comes out as a tie.

Gotta be careful there.  A LOT of people wore out their PS2s early using it as a movie player because of the crappy laser they put in there.  The PS3 may not be built well enough to stand up to long term game and movie use.  Hell, early reports are that it's not good enough to stand up to either long term.  Just like its predecessor.

[Harry Potter]

I resent that quote mangle.   


Wait.... blue and white background.... hmmm..... did Stingray redecorate?

[ChadTower]

I resent that quote mangle.   

What quote mangle?  I made it more generic, I didn't mangle anything.

[boykster]

I will not trust your judgment until you've conducted some double-blind tests.

How does one conduct a blind test of video quality anyways?

with 2 identical htpc's I simultaneous played the WMV HD and standard DVD version of T2: Extreme Edition.  Both HTPC used the same software player and interface, both output pixel-perfect 720p (calibrated to my projector) and the standard DVD one was setup with my standard ffdshow upconverting settings.  I had my wife set the initial source (while I was out of the room) and then switch sources for comparison.

Not a pure scientific approach, but I was unaware of what source was what and had to rely on my perception of the picture.

 

I'm not trying to convince you to by an HD set and get HD programming, that's your call.  I enjoy HD programming and what little network programming I DO watch, there is only one show that I watch on a somewhat regular basis that's not in HD -> scrubs.  Pretty much all primetime stuff is in HD, the NFL that I watch is also HD (all the locals this year were in HD).  NFL in HD however is absolutely spectacular.  I have a hard time watching it in SD now.

In my area, to update from std cable to HD cable is only an increase of $5.95 a month, but unlike any of the dish providers you don't have to buy equpment.  I can totally understand being invested in hardware and not wanting to have to toss all of that and upgrade, that's a ---smurfette---.

[ChadTower]

I can totally understand being invested in hardware and not wanting to have to toss all of that and upgrade, that's a ---smurf---.

Yep, if the HD DirecTV DVR weren't so damned expensive, and if they actually HAD Tivo (which I like), then I'd consider it. 

But I consider Tivo > HD content. 

[AtomSmasher]

Yep, if the HD DirecTV DVR weren't so damned expensive, and if they actually HAD Tivo (which I like), then I'd consider it. 

But I consider Tivo > HD content. 

Heh, I'm the same exact situation.  I have a directv tivo and one of the newer directv dvr's (not tivo brand) and the tivo is so much nicer.  If tivo actually came out with an HD directv box, then I would definately upgrade.

[boykster]

I'm actually really looking forward to the new HD Tivo cable boxes (comcast) but I'm not holding my breath yet.....

[AlanS17]

Yep, if the HD DirecTV DVR weren't so damned expensive, and if they actually HAD Tivo (which I like), then I'd consider it. 

But I consider Tivo > HD content. 

Heh, I'm the same exact situation.  I have a directv tivo and one of the newer directv dvr's (not tivo brand) and the tivo is so much nicer.  If tivo actually came out with an HD directv box, then I would definately upgrade.

I have an HD DirecTV Tivo box. It's genuine HD Tivo in a DirecTV box. I paid $400 or so back over a year ago for it. They retired it in favor of the new generic DVR. That box is the main reason I still even use DirecTV. Way better price than the new $800 standalone HD Tivo plus it has a built-in DirecTV receiver. Very hard to beat.

[AtomSmasher]

Yep, if the HD DirecTV DVR weren't so damned expensive, and if they actually HAD Tivo (which I like), then I'd consider it. 

But I consider Tivo > HD content. 

Heh, I'm the same exact situation.  I have a directv tivo and one of the newer directv dvr's (not tivo brand) and the tivo is so much nicer.  If tivo actually came out with an HD directv box, then I would definately upgrade.

I have an HD DirecTV Tivo box. It's genuine HD Tivo in a DirecTV box. I paid $400 or so back over a year ago for it. They retired it in favor of the new generic DVR. That box is the main reason I still even use DirecTV. Way better price than the new $800 standalone HD Tivo plus it has a built-in DirecTV receiver. Very hard to beat.

Hmm, I may have to start searching ebay for that.

[AlanS17]

From the front, it pretty much looks exactly like the SD DirecTV Tivo. PM me if you're interested in the model number. I'll look it up for you if you want me to.

[ChadTower]

The problem with that is that there is no clear info on how long DirecTV will continue to offer Tivo.  Some reports say indefinitely, others say a year.  Others say they will not activate any more Tivo boxes, period, and still more say that it's all fine get one and go.

$400 is too much for me to upgrade to HD Tivo anyway, so for me, still waiting.  I'd have to do my Tivo customizations all over again and sacrifice having hundreds of hours of capacity... bleh.

[sirwoogie]

The issue with older DirecTV HD Tivo's is that they'll stop working at some point. In fact, all HD receivers that are more than  a year old will stop working. The reason: MPEG-4 transmition. At some point this year or early next, they'll start the transition of everything to MPEG-4, which none of the older boxes support.

Now, they may give more time in the conversion (e.g. do both) to those users as they ramp up their new sats, or they may have some sort of trade in program. But, anything not current is going to be a doorstop (at least for HD content). Don't sink money into a $400 Series 2 HD Tivo, when another couple hundred will future proof you by getting the Series 3.

Both IMO are way to expensive, but that's a whole other story.

[ChadTower]

Okay, make me understand that.  Everything you just described is done in software.  Is it not possible that they will send updates to at least some of those models?  I have no idea what the actual plans are but I can't see how saying "anything not current will be a doorstop" is useful.

[sirwoogie]

Okay, make me understand that.  Everything you just described is done in software.  Is it not possible that they will send updates to at least some of those models?

Certainly.

Everything in the Tivo is done in hardware, not software. A majority of ebedded equipment uses specialized chips and circuitry to do what software does in a more common PC. But, even a PC needs specialized hardware to perform certain functions. Let me give a few examples:

• The original DirecTivo could simultaneously record two MPEG2 streams while displaying a third recorded stream on the TV. It has a IBM PPC CPU running at 60Mhz. You're not going to get that level of performance with the main CPU horsepower alone. You need specialized chips for encoding, decoding, and storage I/O functions.
• You could put the latest core2duo processor in a PC. But if you put some dink 8MB PCI video card in it, those latest FPS aren't going to run to well. Again, the graphics cards have specialized hardware to perform the tasks a normal CPU just can't do well in software.

You can't exactly just flash those specialized chips and reprogram them for another purpose. Granted, the technology exists to have chips with this kind of flashing, but they're far and away more expensive than a vendor would use in a commodity piece of hardware such as a DVR.

Make sense?

[ChadTower]

I wasn't aware of how much hardware decoding/encoding the DirecTivos were doing, but now that I think about it, the CPU/RAM specs are pretty damn low.  Makes sense.

[AlanS17]

Well then I just hope I get a good upgrade discount when that day comes. I've already paid a lot for this DirecTivo box and don't plan on getting another any time soon.

The new Series 3 standalone HD Tivos are a whopping $800 if that's any indication of what the next generation of DVR's is going to cost. Forget that! They even increased the monthly charge and cancelled the whole lifetime subscription program.

[ChadTower]

They even increased the monthly charge and cancelled the whole lifetime subscription program.

They did that a long time ago, though.  The lifetime sub was too easy to fake.

[AlanS17]

They even increased the monthly charge and cancelled the whole lifetime subscription program.

They did that a long time ago, though.  The lifetime sub was too easy to fake.

You can still find older Tivo boxes on Ebay with lifetime subscriptions that are supposedly transferable.

In about 6 months I'll be getting my own place. I'll have to decide at that time what I'll do. If they dont' offer satellite service (and some apartments don't), I choke at the thought of buying a Series 3 Tivo with cablecard.

*shrug*

Back on topic, though... I won't need expensive HD movie packages (regardless of cable or satellite) because I'll likely get a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD player and Netflix. Heck, that along with over-the-air HD might be good enough for me.

[ChadTower]

You can still find older Tivo boxes on Ebay with lifetime subscriptions that are supposedly transferable.

That's because they still exist and have lifetime subscriptions.  They stopped selling new lifetime subs a long time ago but obviously they still have to honor the remaining subs of those lifetime boxes that still function.  The lifetime sub was for the life of the unit, not the user.

[AlanS17]

You can still find older Tivo boxes on Ebay with lifetime subscriptions that are supposedly transferable.

That's because they still exist and have lifetime subscriptions.  They stopped selling new lifetime subs a long time ago but obviously they still have to honor the remaining subs of those lifetime boxes that still function.  The lifetime sub was for the life of the unit, not the user.

Not everyone is out to argue with you, CT. Quit trying to start arguments that just aren't there. It wasn't a statement of contention. It was a statement of fact. One of those, "all is not lost" sort of things. I'm quite aware they're not sold anymore. Did you even read my post where I originally addressed the issue of lifetime subscriptions by specifically mentioning the fact that they now longer offer that deal

I'm fully aware of the whole Tivo situation. I don't need someone talking down to me. No wonder people lose their patience with you. Even your conversational tone appears to be contentious.

And by the way... for a fee, those lifetime subscriptions are certainly transferable to new units. Of course, the window on that deal is about to close forever.

[shmokes]

I will not trust your judgment until you've conducted some double-blind tests.

Sorry.  That was totally tongue in cheek.   I guess I didn't pull it off.

[skim36]

Ok, HD is on the way.  Like it or not.  Everyone is comparing this to the VHS-Betamax war.  Well, Sony was a young company back then.  I think everyone would agree Sony is a major player in the market now.  Last year, Universal was really backing HD-DVD.  The format war was heating up...with no clear winner.  This year Universal seems to have done a 180.  Annoucing nothing as far as HD-DVD goes.  The blu-ray movie releases just about doubled the HD-DVD releases at the last CES.  The only companies that seem to back HD-DVD now are Microsoft and Toshiba.  Microsoft is a major player, no doubt, but look what they did with the 360.  Released an aftermarket player just for movies.  They plan on releasing no games for it.  Not to sound like a Sony Fanboy, but at least they're utilizing their format.  Add-on's to consoles have never panned out.  And Howard, your comment on the blu-ray having to use two lasers and is therefore, not truly backward compatible, makes me laugh.  You know what else has two lasers?  All CD/DVD burners on the market.  One for CD's, one for DVD's.  This is nothing new people.  Blu-ray players are more expensive, I'll give you that.   
But DVD players were a thousand bucks when they first come out.  Time will tell, as with all things, but don't count Sony out yet.  Okay, somebody, debate me......

[ChadTower]

Sony has been around since the 1950s.

[Edgedamage]

#2.  Sony did not make cd or dvd formats, nor did they "help" to make them.  I'm not talking about what they USED, I'm talking about what they MADE.  Any format that sony designs is doomed to failure.  I don't know why, maybe they are cursed, but they've never made a successful, universal format.  Yes schmokes as crazy as it sounds, the fact that sony made it could doom the format.  It has nothing to do with my dislike of sony though, they just tend to produce bad technology, or technology that isn't cost-effective ect....  At least when it comes to storage formats, they make great televisions. 

Not a sony fanboy but I gotta say this. If you think sony formats are such a failure why are 99.9% of all shows on broadcast television are being played back from a SONY CREATED FORMAT!! Sony created the Betacam SP VTR and tape stock. Then they moved on to Digital betacam VTR's and tape stock. Then they moved onto HDcam 60i/720p/1080i/1080p. Their next machine is the HDcam SR which covers all the HD standards plus more robust up and down conversions. Bad technology?? Why does every postproduction company/edit house/broadcaster use sony Trinitron monitors for display and color timing?? Like watching the super bowl in HI DEF?? Well you can thank sony for that as CBS will be using only sony high def cameras. It's starting to smell like poo here Howard please stop talking outta your ass.

[skim36]

Sony has been around since the 1950s.

Thank you Chad, you are absolutely right.  Those of you that have trouble sleeping will appreciate this link, the history of Sony:

http://www.sony.net/Fun/SH/index.html

[somunny]

This from The Digital Bits yesterday.


"The first official retail tracking data from Nielsen VideoScan seems to show Blu-ray Disc outselling HD-DVD in unit software sales by a more than 2 to 1 margin, and the gap is widening. According to data reported in Home Media Retailing (you'll find it on page one of the digital edition available on their website) for the week ending 1/7/07, Year-to-Date tracking indicated that for every 47.14 HD-DVDs sold there were 100 Blu-ray Disc titles sold. Just a week later, ending 1/14/07, the same YTD tracking indicated just 38.36 HD-DVDs sold for every 100 Blu-ray Discs sold. What's more, tracking by Nielsen VideoScan since the inception of both formats appears to indicate that Blu-ray Disc is quickly erasing the sales lead HD-DVD enjoyed as a result of launching months earlier in 2006. On 1/7, HD-DVD's lead was 100 discs for every 85.05 Blu-ray Discs sold, while just a week later on 1/14, that lead had been reduced to 100 HD-DVDs for every 92.40 Blu-ray Discs sold.

Specific unit volume numbers are not available, but one would guess they're still fairly low. No doubt much of the sales surge has to do with the arrival of Sony's PS3 game system in November. We'll have to watch closely over the next few months to see if these trends are affected by specific new software/title releases on both formats from week to week. Still, this data seems to bear out claims made by the BDA at CES, to the effect that their format was outselling HD-DVD as of December 2006 and that the margin could grow to as much as 3 to 1 in early 2007. It'll be interesting to see how continuing sales of the PS3 (and new dedicated players for both formats) impact these numbers as well."

[ChadTower]

Intuition tells me that more attention should be paid to hardware than software.  One guy buying 45 discs is far less significant than 5 guys buying two players each.

[boykster]

Intuition tells me that more attention should be paid to hardware than software.  One guy buying 45 discs is far less significant than 5 guys buying two players each.

I agree with you on principle, but unit sales of titles will always be the gold standard.  Studios only care about unit sales on the titles, and will be unwilling to back either horse fully (if they are on the fence) based solely on player sales, if their titles aren't selling.  I wonder if those sales figures include sales to rental outlets and/or are normalized for number of titles available per technology or not, or are raw numbers.

Just as print media makes its money by advertising, but guages success by readership, digital video technology will rely on player sales, but will guage success by title sales.

[ChadTower]

I agree with you on principle, but unit sales of titles will always be the gold standard.  Studios only care about unit sales on the titles, and will be unwilling to back either horse fully (if they are on the fence) based solely on player sales, if their titles aren't selling.  I wonder if those sales figures include sales to rental outlets and/or are normalized for number of titles available per technology or not, or are raw numbers.

We're not discussing success of the studios, we're discussing success of the format.  All any individual publisher is ever going to worry about is their own title sales and that has a lot more to do with what the titles are than what format they are released in.  The success of any format is heavily dependent on how many people actually have the necessary hardware.  Maybe in the moment the VHS/Beta companies were judging by titles but it wasn't long before they were using player sales instead.  Installed user base is everything!   

[shmokes]

I think boykster is probably hinting at a complimentary relationship, though, between the success of the studios and the success of the hardware.  If studios find that their titles sell better on BluRay, they have more incentive to make more titles available for that format.  The more this happens, the more the BluRay section at BestBuy begins to dominate the HD-DVD section.  If I'm just an average, know-nothing consumer, looking for a next-gen media player and I see that there are twice as many titles available for BluRay as HD-DVD I'm going to say to myself, "Hmm . . . that's a pretty big selling point.  It looks like it's much more likely that any given title I want will be available on the BluRay format, so I think that's the technology I'm going to go with."  This, in turn, gives studios even more incentive to release movies on the BluRay format, because the install base of BluRay players is increasing, which, in turn, gives consumers even more reason to choose BluRay, which in turn, etc., etc.

It's very similar, principle, to the console videogame market.  Playstation and Playstation 2 blew their competition out of the water.  In both cases their competitors had superior hardware.  But the third party publishers (the equivalent of movie studios) gave more support to Sony's systems, creating more software.  The larger library of software encouraged consumers to buy that system, which encouraged even more third-party support, which encouraged even more purchases, etc.

[ChadTower]

Right, but in most cases, I figure they'll make any given title available for both formats.  It's not a like a game you have to port for a different console... you just encode the movie for that format, send it to be pressed on that disc, and blam you're good for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.  Only the companies with a specific vested interest in one over the other will try and go with a single format release (and it will hurt them every time).

[shmokes]

Yeah, I don't know.  I don't know enough to speak with confidence, but my gut tells me that with a lot of movies the studios would only release them on the dominant platform, because when you press a disc I guess you'd want to do it in huge runs so that you would have enough to last you a long time (or forever) so you would not need to spend money retooling the machines to repress that disc in case you run out.  So if you release discs that are unlikely to sell you end up spending money you didn't need to spend, as well as having the ongoing cost of storing the unsold inventory.

I don't know.  Maybe the costs of tooling up for a run of discs is minimal and irrelevant.  But, at the very least, there must be some reason that there are quite a few studios (besides Sony) that have chosen sides.  If nothing else, maybe it's simply that having two formats is expensive for the studios so they want one format to win as soon as possible.