I don't own a gamecube, but I don't think I could possibly disagree with this more. Most of that was just your opinions, which I can't argue against, but as for doubting 3rd parties will make games for the Wii....well, that couldn't be more untrue. Theres already around 30 3rd party developers that have plans for games on the Wii, and Nintendo is expecting to have around 20 launch titles with almost two-thirds of the launch titles from third party publishers.
I've never preordered a console system and pretty much always waited at least a year after they come out before buying one, but I plan on preordering the Wii and buying it on or around launch day. I am definately not a nintendo fanatic, in fact I never played much or owned a SNES, N64, or Gamecube, but this is the first real innovation in home gaming in a long time, which is exciting.
The number of 3rd party developers in line BEFORE a console is even launched is hardly a sign of anything. The gamecube started with support also.
Nintendo isn't looking to cater to the same audiences as the other 2 main console developers. I applaud them for that, as they have done some really great stuff with the DS, but the drawback is that they limit their audience.
When a 3rd party developer is looking to make a title, and they want it to be multiconsole, the Wii(tarded) is going to be the one left out, because it is the odd one. It is going to be less powerful, and it is going to have a weird controller. The general idea is to get new and unique ideas flowing from devs, and to get games that are unique to what the console does offer, which will be great, but it will gurantee that the Wii(tarded) is going to secure a smaller audience than the competition.
Smaller audience = less 3rd party support.
If the console doesn't sell big, then the 3rd party support won't hang around, which is pretty much exactly what happened with the Gamecube.
The big N again decided to go with a gimped media, and they had an odd controller. Comparison after comparison was showing that the specialized controller was inferior for many games, and the sound and gfx sometimes suffered due to the smaller storage capabilities of the media. I'm sure a lot of people had purchased a GameCube as a second console, and when the choice for which console to buy that 3rd party game came around, they went with the other option. I am willing to bet the same thing is going to happen this time around.
Nintendo's gamble on the unique style of the Wii(tarded) won't be all that great, because it is their console, their Nintendo style, and that is just the direction they are planning to go, but other developers will be taking a big gamble making unique titles for it, and quite frankly... A lot of those 3rd party developers just don't have the kind of style or creativity that Nintendo has to make such things successful.
I will be buying the console, and I greatly look forward to the unique stuff that does come out for it, but I highly doubt it will ever be anything other than just the next consoles for playing Nintendo games.