MILITARY:
I don't think China needs forces based internationally to be considered a superpower. France, Germany, GB, USSR (in its day) were never spread out like the US is. In fact I think we have spread ourselves
too thin. If something happened tomorrow, what would we do? Pull out of Iraq? I think China is more than capable of handling things around it's region. They don't have a big navy, but I don't see being able to act offensively as a superpower "qualifier". You only need to protect yourself and your interests. Each of their allies are quite capable of this. China has an estimated military of 2.5 million, of which ~1.8 million are ground troops. That number doesn't include their "reserves". They have the "Dong Feng-5" inter-continental missle which is capable of reaching most of the US and all of Asia/Europe and guestimates of 400+ nukes (mostly short range). Under their "Modernizing and Restructuring" plan, they are shifting some of these troops to reserve status to enable funds to be diverted into buying technological weapons (hence the EU discussions).
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ECONOMY:
The US economy is crappy and we're not collapsing the world economy. The Chinese economy is booming (with it's own problems, but booming nontheless). China is driving prices up around the globe on all raw materials. Steel, lumber, cement, etc. Just wait and see what they do to oil prices in 2-3 years.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P107661.asp"The U.S. economy grew at somewhere between 3% and 4% in the last quarter of 2004 (depending on how a statistical snafu in Canada works out). Most economists think the sustainable rate of growth in the U.S. economy is somewhere around 3% a year. That's great -- for what's often called the developed world. Europe is growing at around 2% at best, and some of its key economies are growing at rates close to zero. Japan is in roughly that same boat.
But U.S. economic growth is anemic by the standards of what's still called the developing world. India and China both topped 8% in 2004 and seem able to keep matching or beating that rate in 2005 and well beyond. Even countries we aren't accustomed to putting in the "growth" category are outgaining the United States. The Philippines is looking at growth of 5% to 6% in 2005. Even Mexico, with all the structural problems that its economy has, is likely to outgrow the United States over the next decade. Combine that with the fact that the U.S. trade deficit hit a record $666 billion in 2004, and the euro is up 47% against the dollar since May 2002... China clearly has a stronger economy. Btw, Japan uses "yen", china uses "yuan renminbi".
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NUKES:
Name one superpower without nukes. I think that in everyones definition of "superpower", nukes are pretty much required (and that's why everyone want that technology).
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MANPOWER:
China has almost 21% of the worlds population (I checked, it's like 20.7). Compare that to 4.5% for the US. Can 5 Chinese people compete with 1 American? You bet. As these "untapped" people come "online", watch out. They'll want cars, computers, etc. Combine China with India's almost 18% of the worlds population, and they make up nearly 40% of the people on the face of the earth. That's a lot of people. Each country can can accomplish a lot. Together (and their relations have been improving drastically), they can accomplish anything. If these two are given reason to join together, the world will take notice. That's why I don't understand why US foreign policy is so bad towards them. Piss them off and 40% of the world dispises you. China clearly has an advantage in manpower.
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TECH:
India is making technological leaps and bounds, China is doing the same. Russia is right next to them and they can, and have, drawn on the technology from there. These guys aren't armed with stones and spears. They're coming up to speed
fast. Even if the EU doesn't supply them with stuff, it's only a short time before they figure it out themselves. technoligically, China is behind the US but is closing in.
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NEIGHBORS:
Burma, Bhutan, Mongolia, Russia, N. Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Nepal, India, and a handful of thisstan/thatstan (geography isn't my strongpoint). The encirclement of US allies isn't as tight as you think. These guys all depend on goods from China and pretty much *have* to trade with them to survive.
Some of these guys can't trade with others because of embargos. China has neighbors and allies to back it up.
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WAR:
Indonesia would side with China because they have stronger ties to them than the US. My friend went home to Malaysia for a couple weeks and he's going to get a concensus of what's going on over there. But he thinks that, in a balls-out war, China would have some
serious real estate to work with. Combine that with a 5-fold manpower advantage, and possibly the backing of India. That's an
incredible advantage. The US can slap around Afganistan, but China is a completely different animal.
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Nazi parallelism: was for govmnt, not economy. A stifling govmnt does not mean a country can't be a superpower. Nazi germany was an incredible war machine and most definately a superpower for its time. If anything, I'd say a stifling govmnt breeds a superpower
because of the control they have. If they need something for the military, they just send it to the military. Obviously the people pay the price...
def: (unlike Drew
)
"Superpower: A powerful and influential nation, especially a nuclear power that dominates its allies or client states in an international power bloc." [from dictionary.com] I think China fits that description very well.
Oil:
Reserves:
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph-T/ene_oil_res&int=50China 24 billion barrels (1/1/02E)
United States 22.4 billion barrels (1/1/03E)
Consumption:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/ene_oil_conChina 4.9 million barrels per day (2001E)
United States 19.7 million barrels per day (2002E)
Production:
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph-T/ene_oil_pro&int=50China 3,387 thousand barrels / day
United States 7,698 thousand barrels / day
Who would have the more difficult time? It's not as clear-cut as you would think. Look at the maps and think about transport lines etc. I'd say China is on par with the US.
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Invade Mexico and march north... was meant as a jab towards the lack of security on that border. I would *hope* the Border Patrol would find it odd that a stream of armed Chinese soldiers were crawling under/over the fence. Of course if they wore WalMart vests, who knows. WalMart
is opening up in China right now...
In summary,
China has all the ingredients that define a superpower (IMO), and the power and resources to back them up. People are putting money
into China, not taking it out. Their foreign relations are improving and they have a strong military. They dominate their region, and have allies that can (and will) help them. No, they can't invade "Mexico" tomorrow, but why would they want to? Why should they? War isn't profitable like it used to be. They protect their own interests, that's it. They don't care about "Setting people free" and they sure aren't going to sport the bill for it.
This may just be my longest post. Quick Drew, how does one recover from such a post?
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Topic: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power (Read 6337 times)
