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Author Topic: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power  (Read 6129 times)

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SamSom

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Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« on: March 22, 2005, 07:33:42 pm »
Who thinks China would become the words biggest super power bigger then US

Crazy Cooter

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2005, 07:50:57 pm »
Who thinks they ARE.
<- Raises hand.

JackTucky

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2005, 08:47:22 pm »
In order to win a conventional war, you need to have the soliders on your side.  I doubt the  Chinese people will put up much of a fight in an offensive war, ie. attacking some country.

If they were attacked, I'm sure they'd fight like hell.

BTW, my kids want to know why everything is made in China.  Perhaps since they make everything, they might indeed be a superpower.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2005, 08:54:54 pm »
China already is. 

Sure they didn't win WWII, but they are winning a far greater war, an economic one against the US.

The Chinese can make anything faster and cheaper then any US or G7 country can.  And easily could assemble a far bigger soldier force then the US could ever imagine. 

The only problem is, the Chinese ground troops would never make it to US shores.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2005, 08:56:51 pm by GGKoul »

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2005, 10:22:28 pm »
Watch Taiwan, there might be some offense there in the next couple years.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2005, 11:04:04 pm by Crazy Cooter »

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2005, 11:24:08 pm »
I guess yaw are not just a bunch of NeoGeo Fanatics In here but what makes you think that they can not reach the US shoreswith so many troops at their disposal

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2005, 11:33:33 pm »
Answer=Yes.

The sun has set on America's empire.
mrC

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2005, 11:49:19 pm »
I guess yaw are not just a bunch of NeoGeo Fanatics In here but what makes you think that they can not reach the US shoreswith so many troops at their disposal

Because the US has a much larger navy then the Chinese.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2005, 12:16:58 am »
China has quite a ways to go as far as being the next hegemony.  It might happen in our lifetimes, but I doubt it.  We have our hands in too many pots to just fade away as the dominate power.  They are about as much the dominating world power as the USSR was in the 20th century.  They do produce a hell of a lot, and they have a few dozen more peasants, but they have major issues to address if they are to be world dominate.  The word "nuclear" kind of changed the scope of things as far as the traditional path to dominance is concerned.  Almost all of the major power changes in the past two centuries relied tremendously upon the industrial revolutions.  We are still near the top of many developing topics and again, I don't see us just getting passed by in the breeze.  I believe they have made strides and have stepped onto the scene in a major way, but I don't plan on hunkering down anytime soon.  If I was Taiwanese, that would be a different story................

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2005, 01:18:32 am »
Quote
Because the US has a much larger navy then the Chinese.
Irrelevant. The US will never be successfully invaded while the ruling administration is willing to participate in 'stalemate' scorched earth tactics. Your raw tonnage ratings, while staggering high, are no longer the deciding factor in the final outcome of any modern war. Even during WW2 it became clear that the future of warfare all came down to espionage and missile technology... 8)
Done. SLATFATF.

APFelon

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2005, 07:08:14 am »
 
Quote
Watch Taiwan, there might be some offense there in the next couple years.  As far as reaching US soil, all they have to do is fly to Mexico and walk right over.  How many thousands of people come across each day?

Oh, brother. I honestly hope you don't think the invasion and occupation of a neighboring nation state would result in no immediate military action by the United States and the impending invasion of the US would be left to be handled by the border patrol. Just damn.

Yes, we all know that global warfare works exactly like the boardgame RISK. Occupation of Mexico is simply a matter of flying troops over. The invasion of the United States is merely the order to invade an adjascent territory. The United States only has two territories (Eastern United States and Western United States) with maybe a stack of ten armies on them each. A few lucky rolls of the dice, and we are all doomed.  ::)

Quote
China already is.

Sure they didn't win WWII, but they are winning a far greater war, an economic one against the US.

The Chinese can make anything faster and cheaper then any US or G7 country can.

I heard this about Japan in the early 1980s. This isn't a new song, it's simply "second verse, same as the first". The difference is that Japan and China have two different political and economic methods. Japan's is beneficial to business and manufacturing operations. Just recently, the Chinese government didn't like the recent (post Hong Kong reunification) non-state controlled businesses and cracked down on them, and even more recently, have been putting economic and political pressure on Hong Kong itself.

On top of that, I speculate that a government controlled industrial base would not be a resilliant as a non-government controlled industrial base. Think hydra versus snake. Chop off the head of a hydra, a few more grow back. Slice off the head of a snake, and it's a goner. Focused industrial strikes with conventional or nuclear weapons against China would be very, very effective against aggressive expansion.

Aside from that, I'm not quite sure what you meant by "China didn't win World War II". China was a defensive participant in that war and had some serious internal issues at that point. They were in no position to "win" anything. You know that the US wasn't at war with China, right? And you know that the US  actually helped the Chinese repulse the Japanese invasion force with military aid, right?

Look, China does not have a worldwide military presence like the UK and the US does. Any rapid military expansion would most likely run in to severe supply and transport issues, especially of they conducted cross-ocean operations. The US, on the other hand, have well supplied military complexes in Japan, South Korea and the Philipines, military bases on numerous Pacific islands including Hawaii, not to mention our other allies in Oceania..

Quote
Answer=Yes.

The sun has set on America's empire.

And if it isn't dead yet, we need to hit it with a shovel a few times. I hope you aren't a coroner. If you are, I hope that you advise the surviving family to bury their "deceased" with a walkie-talkie so that they can call for help and be dug up.

I keep reading threads like this. Is realistic optomism out of fad this week? Seriously guys, bone up a little on history, modern warfare and geopolitical relations before you post some of this wacky stuff. I'd say 90% of threads like these are littered with "facts" pulled from thin air.

APf

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2005, 07:55:13 am »
They already are, and economically they're the biggest. It's good to be in the Euro zone having China as a major trading partner  :)

Crazy Cooter

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2005, 08:56:45 am »
Oh, brother. I honestly hope you don't think..

It was meant as a joke. ;)
But I really think they could beat us around the globe, and then come here.  Or just beat us around the globe and leave us alone at home.  That would still bring them (and communism) to the top of the the charts.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2005, 09:00:10 am »
China is a huge technological force now.  They are getting progressively more sophisticated.  I don't know if they are the biggest Trading partner to the US, but they have to be in the top 3.

It used to be people laughed at China's products. Not anymore, they are getting very good at making high tech. 

And they have a huge military force.

We aren't going to screw with China. China does what it wants.  So far it has followed a pretty isolationist policy, but that may change very soon. 

My bet is that if China does take action against Tawian, we aren't going to do a single thing.
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2005, 01:00:28 pm »
I really hope we stay out of it.  it's like if Texas decided they wanted to be communist and China backed them.  If the US went in to slap around Texas, would China really want to get involved?  No, we're *right there* and can swat China out.

Now taiwan is *right there* for China.  They want to go democratic.  If we step in, will we "win" or will we be "swatted out"?  We'd take the beating unlike any other in history.  It would be like marching off a cliff.  I don't see any way for the US to "defend" taiwan without going into a full-scale war with China.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2005, 01:11:54 pm »
I don't think we would, at least not us Directly.

We could hold them off.  Apparently you weren't in the Army or any Forces Cooter.  Simple war stratagey really.

The way to win would be to go for the land mass itself. Hold it and pull the Navy in to blockade it.  With our technology we could do it if we could build the force up big enough quickly enough.

I'm sure we could hold it if the nuclear option wasn't used.

I'm sure we could hold the Continental US too.  It's the nuclear thing that makes it Tricky.  Hopefully Reagan actually made some of those weather satillites into something really cool.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2005, 01:44:21 pm »
The only problem is, the Chinese ground troops would never make it to US shores.

Sure they could.  They'd put on sombreros and come through the Mexican border.  They could be in the US and working for two years before anyone noticed.

We all seem to agree that China can manufacture anything faster and cheaper... but not weapons, I suppose?
« Last Edit: March 23, 2005, 01:49:10 pm by ChadTower »

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2005, 02:34:10 pm »
Chinese SKS's.  Go for about $100 here.  (what is that, $6000 canadian?)
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2005, 02:37:17 pm »
I don't think it's likely that China will invade Taiwan in the near future despite the sabre rattling. Why should they? They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker. They can afford to play the long game and bide their time.

But if they did invade Taiwan then we'd probably end up with a Cuban missile crisis situation i.e. a long period of brinkmanship followed by an uneasy compromise.

There would be a lot of posturing but I don't think either side would risk a direct military confrontation because it would almost certainly escalate and end up with WMDs being used.

The days when major industrialised countries went to war are gone. The stakes are just too high these days.

"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel." - Samuel Johnson

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2005, 02:42:29 pm »
Quote
They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker.

How so?

Quote
The days when major industrialised countries went to war are gone. The stakes are just too high these days.

Don't bet on that.  Things change.  20 years ago we were facing the USSR down and expecting war.  Who would have thought we'd be fighting at this in the Mid East on 9/10/01?

All it would take would be a huge economic meltdown to change things around.  Oil could do that.  A misplaced Nuke could do that.

Russia isn't what it used to be, but it's still a superpower.  England went to war in the '80's over land. 
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2005, 02:48:46 pm »

Quote
They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker.


Uh, yeah.  Good work, math wiz.  If they're getting stronger, relatively speaking, we are getting weaker.  Reflexivity works that way.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2005, 02:53:42 pm »
China is getting stronger in economic terms. It will eventually get stronger in military terms as well.

With regards to your second point, my mistake. I meant to say the days when major industrialised countries went to war WITH EACH OTHER are gone.

Iraq is not a major industrialised country and neither is Argentina.

I'm not saying wars won't happen but they'll tend to be proxy wars fought in the third world.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2005, 02:57:25 pm by Grasshopper »
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Grasshopper

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2005, 02:56:35 pm »

Quote
They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker.


Uh, yeah.  Good work, math wiz.  If they're getting stronger, relatively speaking, we are getting weaker.  Reflexivity works that way.

Not true. The economies of most western countries are expanding but not at China's pace. We're also getting stronger militarily as well thanks to new technology. But China will overtake us in that area as well eventually.
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2005, 03:04:39 pm »
Not true. The economies of most western countries are expanding but not at China's pace. We're also getting stronger militarily as well thanks to new technology. But China will overtake us in that area as well eventually.

Yes, it IS true.  The key word in his equation is RELATIVELY.  If they are gaining on us, we are getting weaker relative to them.  It's a very simple piece of grammar.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2005, 03:10:10 pm »
I don't forsee any major confrontations anytime soon.  I thought the question was wether or not China was the next biggest super power.  Economically, they are a force to be reconned with.  They probably will be the next hegemony due to the fact they have the size and the resources, and most importantly, a drive to be the leader.  Look what they did to the steal industry last year.  I think we are more like the Roman empire.  We are almost to the point of watching us kill each other for entertainment (reality t.v. anyone?).  It's hard to get to the top, but impossible to stay there.  I'm more worried about the people who lead our country than China.  Why would anybody in Congress care about a woman in Florida enough to grab all the headlines?  What about Social Security?  That's why we are going into decline.  We wouldn't need the oil if money didn't make the world go 'round.  Taiwan and South Korea are going to cause us problems in the future, but I jst can't see us taking action to the next level.  Nobody wants that.  The Iraq war was about as far is it will get without a major incident (like 9/11).  As far as the conspiracy theorists, the Chinese have about as much a chance to invade the mainland, as the terrorists have had in causing terror strikes.  We're not some walk in the park.  If we get motivated, the world will know.  When you have WWII on your resume, it's pretty hard to prove the statement wrong. 

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2005, 03:11:16 pm »
Not true. The economies of most western countries are expanding but not at China's pace. We're also getting stronger militarily as well thanks to new technology. But China will overtake us in that area as well eventually.

Yes, it IS true.  The key word in his equation is RELATIVELY.  If they are gaining on us, we are getting weaker relative to them.  It's a very simple piece of grammar.

Sigh, I really don't want to get into a semantic nit picking game with you.
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2005, 03:18:35 pm »
Forgot to answer the original question.

The answer is clearly yes.
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2005, 10:21:24 pm »
I don't forsee any major confrontations anytime soon.  I thought the question was wether or not China was the next biggest super power.  Economically, they are a force to be reconned with.  They probably will be the next hegemony due to the fact they have the size and the resources, and most importantly, a drive to be the leader.  Look what they did to the steal industry last year.  I think we are more like the Roman empire.  We are almost to the point of watching us kill each other for entertainment (reality t.v. anyone?).  It's hard to get to the top, but impossible to stay there.  I'm more worried about the people who lead our country than China.  Why would anybody in Congress care about a woman in Florida enough to grab all the headlines?  What about Social Security?  That's why we are going into decline.  We wouldn't need the oil if money didn't make the world go 'round.  Taiwan and South Korea are going to cause us problems in the future, but I jst can't see us taking action to the next level.  Nobody wants that.  The Iraq war was about as far is it will get without a major incident (like 9/11).  As far as the conspiracy theorists, the Chinese have about as much a chance to invade the mainland, as the terrorists have had in causing terror strikes.  We're not some walk in the park.  If we get motivated, the world will know.  When you have WWII on your resume, it's pretty hard to prove the statement wrong. 

Two words.  Carriage.  Return.

Simplified, hit that "enter" button a few times in there.  It reads as if you require deep heaving breaths when finished, and is brutal on the eyes, unlike my posts which are brutal on the eyes for SO many more reasons ;D
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #28 on: March 24, 2005, 10:09:50 pm »
So the current superpower can't even figure out how to get basic necessitites to its people?  Nice standards you work under ::)

360 million Chinese without safe drinking water, chronic urban shortages

Hey, seeing as how they're the current superpower, how about you start focusing your efforts on questioning why the world's superpower has such a problem with environmental issues in their country and how it affects other countries. 
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in ways that you later wish you hadn’t

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #29 on: March 24, 2005, 10:14:06 pm »
So the current superpower can't even figure out how to get basic necessitites to its people?

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #30 on: March 24, 2005, 10:24:21 pm »
They can get drinking water.

OH...I forgot to add on there - discuss:   ;)
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #31 on: March 24, 2005, 10:38:53 pm »
They can get drinking water.

but how safe is the drinking water ???

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #32 on: March 24, 2005, 10:59:32 pm »
They can get drinking water.

but how safe is the drinking water ???

Where do you think a homeless person is going to choose to get his water from - the dirty puddle in the gutter, or head into a McDonald's bathroom and find the sink?

I'll go with homeless people being smart enough to stay alive, therefore, they'll choose the local bathroom of some place near them to find water.

I'll go a step further and say the water coming out of the sink in a bathroom is billions of times cleaner than Chinese puddle water.
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #33 on: March 25, 2005, 06:29:57 am »
Good gravy. Are all of you so young as to not remember that these EXACT SAME THINGS were said about Japan in the late '70s early '80s?

They can manufacture things cheaper and faster blah blah blah they will dominate the Pacific Rim blah blah they will soon demand to remilitarize yadda yadda yadda.

Yeah... Well, so how's that coming along?

AND... this exact same stuff was said about China in the early '90s, except in that scenario, the Chinese were supposed to dominate the Olympics by the year 2008. Anyone want to place some early wagers on their prospects?

China may someday become the world's next superpower, but it isn't going to be today and it won't be tomorrow. The deck is incredibly stacked against them.

No offshore military bases.

Inefficient centralized government.

Incredibly poor infastructure.

Stifled religious and human rights issues.

Encirclement in the Pacific by the US and allies of the US.

Focused on protectionism and isolationism.

Insignificant domestic oil production.

... and this is just the SHORT LIST of issues China needs to overcome before they can have a seat at the "superpower" buffet.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #34 on: March 25, 2005, 07:17:35 am »
Not yet, but they ARE creating huge waves in international commodities markets simply by the volume of their demand.  Here in MA the price of lumber is skyrocketing... why?  All vendors say the same thing:  their suppliers are selling it all to China.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #35 on: March 25, 2005, 11:08:45 am »
look at our homeless population
I think Wendy's found a solution to that problem.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #36 on: March 25, 2005, 01:28:47 pm »
*Does a superpower need to have military stationed all over the world?
*Right now China has a greater influence on the world economy than any other country.  They are on par with the entire EU.
*They have nuclear energy and weapons.
*They have like 20%? of the worlds population.
*They're working on a deal to score technologically advanced weapons that can compete with the US.
*They may be encircled with US allies, but nobody is willing to touch them.
*Sure their govmnt is stifling, but Germany came a looong way with the facist govmt they had ("superpower" wise, "morally" = a whole different topic).
*There are a bunch of "superpower" countries that don't have significant oil production.

I'd be willing to bet money that China will hook up with Iran for some oil (if they don't already get it from there).

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #37 on: March 25, 2005, 02:18:27 pm »
Oh, I get it now!

No one wants to define what a "Super Power" is!

In keeping with my callous pro-American beliefs, I'm defining a super power as what America is, and everyone else sucks ;)

Go on, rain down the boos (or whistle - whoever thought THAT crap up ::) ) I can take all your abuse...after all....I'm American....I expect it  ;D
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #38 on: March 25, 2005, 02:53:05 pm »
We should just turn China into a parking lot.
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #39 on: March 25, 2005, 07:51:41 pm »
 
Quote
*Does a superpower need  to have military stationed all over the world?

In order to qualify as a "superpower", yes. A superpower should be able to project force anywhere in the world within a short manner of time. China does not have this ability, nor the allies.

Quote
*Right now China has a greater influence on the world economy than any other country.  They are on par with the entire EU.
What numbers are you using? GNP, GDP, simple consumption by the population, exports, imports, what? If the economy collapses in China, would this cause a worldwide collapse? Is the world economy based on the Chinese Yen? (let me give you a hint: The answer is no.)

Quote
*They have nuclear energy and weapons.

So does Pakistan and North Korea.

Quote
*They have like 20%? of the worlds population.

Which is an untapped resourse. Look at my earlier Olympic anecdote.

Quote
*They're working on a deal to score technologically advanced weapons that can compete with the US.

...and this is looking less and less likely to happen. The EU is starting to wise up. This is from the Sydney Morning Herald:

Quote
The "Anti-Secession Law" passed by the rubber-stamp Chinese parliament this month, designed to quelch moves towards formal independence in Taiwan, has boomeranged on Beijing.

On Saturday afternoon in Taipei, President Chen Shui-bian will orchestrate a massive protest against the law and its threat of "non-peaceful means" should Taiwan's politicians step beyond the law's ill-defined markers.

International opinion, especially in the democratic countries where Beijing needs to improve support for its Taiwan policies, has been generally critical of the law, with Dr Rice calling it "unhelpful".

Most embarrassing of all, the anti-secession law has slowed and possibly derailed the push by Germany and France to lift the European Union's arms embargo on China, imposed after the 1989 massacre around Tiananmen Square in Beijing.

The law was cited by the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, as a new obstacle. Britain had been supporting the lifting of the ban, but this week signalled that it wanted to postpone a decision because of US concerns.

Several other European states are also opposed - including Italy, Sweden and Belgium.

Whoopsie daisy.

Quote
*They may be encircled with US allies, but nobody is willing to touch them.

And why not? If China becomes belligerant, you think no one will do anything about it? That explains your "invade Mexico and march north" theory.  :-\

Quote
*Sure their govmnt is stifling, but Germany came a looong way with the facist govmt they had ("superpower" wise, "morally" = a whole different topic).

I would like you to make the case that the Nazi economy is similar to the Chinese economy. When the Nazis took power, Germany was in a horrible depression and nationalizing the formerly privately-owned industries simply stripped the reigns from the owners... the businesses were already set up and running before Hitler and co. took over. It would take some time before the centralization of industry would be noticable under that system. China hasn't had private business in their nation for over 60 years. It is so rigid that it's brittle.

Quote
*There are a bunch of "superpower" countries that don't have significant oil production.

Which superpower nation would that be? Go ahead and say the UK, but BP have their hands in foreign refineries all around the globe... and besides, it would hard to define the UK as a "superpower" anymore since they granted independence to most of their former colonies and commonwealths. What other country could still be considered a superpower? I'm not sure that you quite know what superpower means.

Quote
I'd be willing to bet money that China will hook up with Iran for some oil (if they don't already get it from there).

They already have an oil commitment from that whackjob that runs Venezuela. The world oil market is open to everyone, even China. My argument is that they cannot sustain a motorized workforce or army during a time of difficult economic times or international war. Not that they have somehow been frozen out of the world markets.

APf

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #40 on: March 25, 2005, 08:34:24 pm »
China could very well become the next superpower.. its the most likely to do it out of any other country in the world.

The US has been on top for a very long time. But if past proves anything... no one stays in power forever.

Its naive to think the US will be the top positional power forever..... they have one thing that no other has in history. techonology. everything will be unpredictable.
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #41 on: March 26, 2005, 01:18:42 pm »
MILITARY:
I don't think China needs forces based internationally to be considered a superpower.  France, Germany, GB, USSR (in its day) were never spread out like the US is.  In fact I think we have spread ourselves too thin.  If something happened tomorrow, what would we do?  Pull out of Iraq?  I think China is more than capable of handling things around it's region.  They don't have a big navy, but I don't see being able to act offensively as a superpower "qualifier".  You only need to protect yourself and your interests.  Each of their allies are quite capable of this.  China has an estimated military of 2.5 million, of which ~1.8 million are ground troops.  That number doesn't include their "reserves".  They have the "Dong Feng-5" inter-continental missle which is capable of reaching most of the US and all of Asia/Europe and guestimates of 400+ nukes (mostly short range).  Under their "Modernizing and Restructuring" plan, they are shifting some of these troops to reserve status to enable funds to be diverted into buying technological weapons (hence the EU discussions).

---
ECONOMY:
The US economy is crappy and we're not collapsing the world economy.  The Chinese economy is booming (with it's own problems, but booming nontheless).  China is driving prices up around the globe on all raw materials.  Steel, lumber, cement, etc.  Just wait and see what they do to oil prices in 2-3 years.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P107661.asp
"The U.S. economy grew at somewhere between 3% and 4% in the last quarter of 2004 (depending on how a statistical snafu in Canada works out). Most economists think the sustainable rate of growth in the U.S. economy is somewhere around 3% a year. That's great -- for what's often called the developed world. Europe is growing at around 2% at best, and some of its key economies are growing at rates close to zero. Japan is in roughly that same boat.

But U.S. economic growth is anemic by the standards of what's still called the developing world. India and China both topped 8% in 2004 and seem able to keep matching or beating that rate in 2005 and well beyond. Even countries we aren't accustomed to putting in the "growth" category are outgaining the United States. The Philippines is looking at growth of 5% to 6% in 2005. Even Mexico, with all the structural problems that its economy has, is likely to outgrow the United States over the next decade.

 
Combine that with the fact that the U.S. trade deficit hit a record $666 billion in 2004, and the euro is up 47% against the dollar since May 2002... China clearly has a stronger economy.  Btw, Japan uses "yen", china uses "yuan renminbi".

---
NUKES:
Name one superpower without nukes.  I think that in everyones definition of "superpower", nukes are pretty much required (and that's why everyone want that technology).

---
MANPOWER:
China has almost 21% of the worlds population (I checked, it's like 20.7).  Compare that to 4.5% for the US.  Can 5 Chinese people compete with 1 American?  You bet.  As these "untapped" people come "online", watch out.  They'll want cars, computers, etc.  Combine China with India's almost 18% of the worlds population, and they make up nearly 40% of the people on the face of the earth.  That's a lot of people.  Each country can can accomplish a lot.  Together (and their relations have been improving drastically), they can accomplish anything.  If these two are given reason to join together, the world will take notice.  That's why I don't understand why US foreign policy is so bad towards them.  Piss them off and 40% of the world dispises you.  China clearly has an advantage in manpower.

---
TECH:
India is making technological leaps and bounds, China is doing the same.  Russia is right next to them and they can, and have, drawn on the technology from there.  These guys aren't armed with stones and spears.  They're coming up to speed fast.  Even if the EU doesn't supply them with stuff, it's only a short time before they figure it out themselves.  technoligically, China is behind the US but is closing in.

---
NEIGHBORS:
Burma, Bhutan, Mongolia, Russia, N. Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Nepal, India, and a handful of thisstan/thatstan (geography isn't my strongpoint).  The encirclement of US allies isn't as tight as you think.  These guys all depend on goods from China and pretty much *have* to trade with them to survive.
Some of these guys can't trade with others because of embargos.  China has neighbors and allies to back it up.

---
WAR:
Indonesia would side with China because they have stronger ties to them than the US.  My friend went home to Malaysia for a couple weeks and he's going to get a concensus of what's going on over there.  But he thinks that, in a balls-out war, China would have some serious real estate to work with.  Combine that with a 5-fold manpower advantage, and possibly the backing of India.  That's an incredible advantage.  The US can slap around Afganistan, but China is a completely different animal.

---
Nazi parallelism: was for govmnt, not economy.  A stifling govmnt does not mean a country can't be a superpower.  Nazi germany was an incredible war machine and most definately a superpower for its time.  If anything, I'd say a stifling govmnt breeds a superpower because of the control they have.  If they need something for the military, they just send it to the military.  Obviously the people pay the price...

def: (unlike Drew ;)) "Superpower: A powerful and influential nation, especially a nuclear power that dominates its allies or client states in an international power bloc." [from dictionary.com]  I think China fits that description very well.

Oil:
Reserves:
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph-T/ene_oil_res&int=50
China 24 billion barrels (1/1/02E) 
United States 22.4 billion barrels (1/1/03E)

Consumption:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/ene_oil_con
China 4.9 million barrels per day (2001E)
United States 19.7 million barrels per day (2002E)

Production:
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph-T/ene_oil_pro&int=50
China 3,387 thousand barrels / day
United States 7,698 thousand barrels / day

Who would have the more difficult time?  It's not as clear-cut as you would think.  Look at the maps and think about transport lines etc.  I'd say China is on par with the US.

---
Invade Mexico and march north... was meant as a jab towards the lack of security on that border.  I would *hope* the Border Patrol would find it odd that a stream of armed Chinese soldiers were crawling under/over the fence.  Of course if they wore WalMart vests, who knows.  WalMart is opening up in China right now... ;)

In summary,
China has all the ingredients that define a superpower (IMO), and the power and resources to back them up.  People are putting money into China, not taking it out.  Their foreign relations are improving and they have a strong military.  They dominate their region, and have allies that can (and will) help them.  No, they can't invade "Mexico" tomorrow, but why would they want to?  Why should they?  War isn't profitable like it used to be.  They protect their own interests, that's it.  They don't care about "Setting people free" and they sure aren't going to sport the bill for it.

This may just be my longest post.  Quick Drew, how does one recover from such a post? ;)

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #42 on: March 26, 2005, 03:39:04 pm »
That's easy.  Post something like this.  Then ice your hands to keep the swelling down. ;D
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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #43 on: March 27, 2005, 12:17:24 am »
Ahh.  Better.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #44 on: March 28, 2005, 09:09:11 pm »
Who thinks China would become the words biggest super power bigger then US

yes


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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #45 on: March 28, 2005, 09:18:08 pm »
Who thinks China would become the words biggest super power bigger then US

yes

Are you speaking for the band, or did you misread the question?

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #46 on: March 29, 2005, 09:41:52 pm »
Who thinks China would become the words biggest super power bigger then US

yes

Are you speaking for the band, or did you misread the question?

oops, sorry. since leaving the band i haven't really spoken on their behalf for some time. i meant to say :

yes, i think China would become the words biggest super power bigger then US (sic)


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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #47 on: March 30, 2005, 08:28:20 am »
I think China Already is the biggest superpower.  I don't think there is a question on thier size and power is there? What's the population of China? 1.2 BILLION people.  They are easily 5X the size of the US.  They have economic power over most of the free world. 

It then becomes a question of what a "superpower" is.  What do you guys consider a superpower? One that has both economic and military might or just military power?

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #48 on: March 30, 2005, 09:52:08 am »
They are not a superpower until they have a Dunkin Donuts every 500 yards.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #49 on: March 30, 2005, 12:57:21 pm »
They're getting WalMarts.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #50 on: March 30, 2005, 01:21:55 pm »
Just pulled from an article about Walmart's expansion:

Code: [Select]
Over the last decade, it has acquired over 700 stores outside the US, expanding into Mexico in 1991, Puerto Rico in 1992, Canada in 1994, Argentina and Brazil in 1995, and China and Indonesia in 1996.
So, are Mexico, Puerto Rico, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, and Indonesia all superpowers?


Source:  http://www.andyrowell.com/articles/suckers_walmart.html


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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #51 on: March 30, 2005, 01:37:30 pm »
Just pulled from an article about Walmart's expansion:
...
So, are Mexico, Puerto Rico, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, and Indonesia all superpowers?

Walmart is a superpower.

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #52 on: March 30, 2005, 02:26:39 pm »
All HAIL Walmart!

ALL HAIL Walmart!

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #53 on: March 30, 2005, 08:37:04 pm »
U-S-A!

U-S-A!

U-S....ERRRRRRM

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Re: Is China The Next Biggest Super Power
« Reply #54 on: March 31, 2005, 09:41:41 pm »
It then becomes a question of what a "superpower" is.


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