So are we headed into bluray or hd dvd or both ?

[rlemmon]

I have done a little digging into it. It seems bluray will come out ahead but who knows what do you guys think ?

[abrannan]

I don't think either will really gain enough market traction before the studios, cable companies, and network providers work out reliable on demand network delivery of movies.  From there, formats can change (and High-def can get higher) without requiring a whole new player.  There are at least a dozen new startups trying to find the right model for online movie delivery, and one of them is bound to hit on the right combinations to make both the consumer and studio happy. 

BluRay will probably succeed most as a data format, where there will still need to be physical media (i.e. this generation of consoles), but it will also go away by next-gen, IMO.

[shmokes]

HD-DVD seems to be doing better so far, but if PS3 has a great deal of success that could change.  Frankly, I agree with abrannan.  DVDs already look pretty good on an HD TV.  DVDs were light years ahead of the VCR.  Not just the picture was better, but navigating the movie was so much nicer.  BluRay/HD-DVD just don't offer that much.  The picture looks better, but it's nothing like the jump between VCR and DVD.  And DVD was so incredibly successful that people have built up enormous libraries that they're not going to be too keen on replacing so soon.

So, like abrannan, I think the next big shift in media format will be no media at all.  I'm not entirely sold on BluRay's success over HD-DVD yet.  I think it depends mostly on the PS3.

[clanggedin]

It all comes down to cost. VHS beat Beta even though the quality wasn't as good, but was much cheaper. It really depends on which format releases players under $200 first.

I don't even have a HDTV yet so I dont care who wins, as long as there is a clear winner when I get around to buying an HDTV.

[ChadTower]

The big things that changed with DVDs:

- Size
- Digital sound, 5.1, etc
- Near random access seek times
- No more VCRs eating tapes
- No more degradation of the media due to regular use
- Eventually, hella cheap DVD players that are pretty much disposable

These were all gigantic improvements over VHS.  Those will mostly stay consistent in the next wave of DVD technology so I think the transition will be much slower.

[Ed_McCarron]

Anyone else predicting that BluRay will be the next Beta?

[ChadTower]

Personally, I don't care.  I have no plans to buy anything HD DVD or Blu Ray capable for quite some time.

[shardian]

Although I have no personal experience with them, there are upconverting dvd players available that work wonders with dvd's. HD-DVD is only a small percentage better than this IMO. Only videophiles will upgrade to hd-dvd for the next 2 years or so.

The ONLY reason I want an HD tv is so I can get over the air signals to come in clear. My bunny ear reception sucks butt.

[ChadTower]

I got one because I wanted a new TV and it's basically foolish to buy one that's not HD capable going forward.  Not because I planned to move to HD any time soon.  Though I am starting to explore HD gaming a bit.

[shmokes]

The one place where I see a HUGE need for HDTV is sports.  It is just so much better.  Specifically I watch a lot of tennis (or would if I had more time, but I watch as much as I can) and the difference is night and day.  You don't really realize how hard the ball is to track sometimes until you've watched a match in HDTV. 

Anyway, I'd guess the same would hold true for most sports.  I haven't watched much in HDTV cos I don't have access to any over the air in my area, and am not willing to pay for it from a cable or satellite provider, but it will be nice when it's just the defacto standard.

[MYX]

I think that eventually there will be players that support both. I mean they have DVD players that will play just about anything now. It may require 2 sets of optics, but some genius will do it. Doesn't mater much because there are all sorts of new technologies that are coming up fast and if these two don't work it out soon, they will both loose and get passed by. There is an article in this months Home Theater mag that was talking about some folks with much better ideas than even the BR or HD folks could offer.

[RayB]

In theory, BOTH new formats could survive. Ricoh has come up with technology that can read both discs.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,203718,00.html

The only problem with this is that I can't envision Sony granting a license for a player that supports both formats. They're way too arrogant and self-obsessed to want to share the playfield like that (until it's past obvious they're losing out).

[boykster]

In theory, BOTH new formats could survive. Ricoh has come up with technology that can read both discs.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,203718,00.html

The only problem with this is that I can't envision Sony granting a license for a player that supports both formats. They're way too arrogant and self-obsessed to want to share the playfield like that (until it's past obvious they're losing out).

Bingo!  Dual optic readers are just a technology problem, but solving the licensing problem will be a major PITA.  I dunno who's going to "win", but I'm not investing in either until the dust settles and the costs come down -> and I have 3 plasmas, 2 LCD tvs, and a projector.

There IS quite a bit of difference between a well mastered HD-DVD/Bluray title and a good DVD, but I agree with sharidan that it will mostly be videophiles that are the early adopters, just like with Laserdisc and DVD.  Oh, and upconverting dvd players and HTPC's do look better than run of the mill dvd players, but there's only so much they can do....the best upconverted DVD can't touch the quality of a native HD-DVD title....

[RayB]

true. I saw a BluRay on demo on a proper HD tv and it's definitely a noticeable improvement. But only people with 1080p HDTVs will care.

It's like Chad said. There's not enough of an incentive to upgrade.

[koz319]

There IS quite a bit of difference between a well mastered HD-DVD/Bluray title and a good DVD.  Oh, and upconverting dvd players and HTPC's do look better than run of the mill dvd players, ....the best upconverted DVD can't touch the quality of a native HD-DVD title....

I couldn't agree more - If you think there isn't much difference between hd-dvd/blu-ray and standard dvds, consider this: Most DVDs (NTSC) are encoded at  720*480 =  345,600 pixels per frame. 1080p  encoded HD-DVD = 1920*1080 = 2,073,600 pixels per frame. 2,073,600/345,600 = 6

There are 6 TIMES more pixels per frame of 1080p HD than standard DVD.   The difference is HUGE, * IF * you have a display that can take advantage of the resolution.  If you are sitting 10' from a 32" HDTV,  the difference will probably not be very apparent. But 12' from a 110" HD projected image, the difference is jaw-dropping.  It's not subtle, and I would say it's *easily* as big or bigger an improvement as the jump from vhs to dvd was.

As far as upscaling DVD players go, an HD-TV (fixed resolution display, LCD or Plasma or DLP) is already upscaling your video to hi-def resolution.  Otherwise, the video would only fill a small portion of the screen.   So you are wagering that the scaler in the DVD player is better than the scaler in the set,  which  may or may not be true.   Either way, there's still a BIG difference between upscaled DVD and  true hi-def.

HD-DVD seems to have a bit of a lead right now, but I kinda hope Blu-Ray takes off.  Sony has botched the Blu-Ray launch, it's way too expensive and there have been some low quality transfers.  In the end, I'm  guessing the potential for more storage on Blu-Ray will probably tip the scales that direction. I dont like Blu-Rays DRM though. (Serioulsy thinking about picking up the HD-DVD add-on for the 360 for Xmas though - cheapest way to go at the moment).

Both formats are useless to anyone without an HDTV.

And yeah, sports in HD is pretty spectacular!

Koz

[jbox]

Ummm.....  cinemaphile /= pleb

The statement was made that the difference between VHS -> DVD was massively more significant than the difference between DVD -> HD, and I guess I personally added "for 99.9% of the population" to that sentence when I nodded wholeheartedly. Maybe you have a 110" image, but anything over 40" is not what I would consider "the mass market". Yes, there are lots of people who now have big screens compared to many years ago, but in terms of the MGM generation, that clause "*IF* you have a display that can take advantage of the resolution" will probably kick in 99% of the time.

A quad-core PC with 8GB of TDR-RAM, 2TB RAID, 30" Apple Lustopanel and Duetchekompanie Speakerz will be staggeringly better than the "junk" on your desk right now. But for 99.9% of the population what they have right now is good enough.  Even if that does make them Philistines.