Sweet. I'll try both of those things. Andy, I'll email you tonight.
This is an early 2003 IPAC model (right before the chips changed). I don't remember seeing an LED on it and would have likely noticed a lit one. I'll look again. There's a not-so-great picture of it
here.
Two other things that may or may not be relevant:
1) The pause button has fairly consistently sent an ESC when in a game. Testing shows that it maps to "P", and that a "P" keypress on the pass-thru keyboard will pause MAME. Despite that, a "P" sent from the CP results in an ESC. It's possible that my "P" wire is touching my "ESC" wire? Casual troubleshooting never turned up the problem so I stopped pausing and kept gaming.

2) Sometimes when I leave Mamewah and go to a Windows desktop, I can't double-click things. Hitting ESC a few times clears the problem. Could be a short or stuck keypress gumming up the works?
Thanks
-pmc