More progress, but it's getting stranger.
At one point, it was working perfectly. The image was holding, and Windows displayed on the monitor at 640x480.
I don't remember what I did. I was just switching back and forth from the PC monitor to arcade monitor, trying various resolutions. Once I got it, I wanted to see if I could reproduce it by rebooting. Nope.
Now I am back to black screen at Windows desktop. Furthermore, MAME no longer runs on the arcade monitor like it did before. I keep getting SwitchRes: could not find mode... error. I also saw a Direct 3D error once. Something about it couldn't write to a file.
I've run VMMAKER.EXE several times, rebooted, with same result.