Is China The Next Biggest Super Power

[SamSom]

Who thinks China would become the words biggest super power bigger then US

[Crazy Cooter]

Who thinks they ARE.
<- Raises hand.

[JackTucky]

In order to win a conventional war, you need to have the soliders on your side.  I doubt the  Chinese people will put up much of a fight in an offensive war, ie. attacking some country.

If they were attacked, I'm sure they'd fight like hell.

BTW, my kids want to know why everything is made in China.  Perhaps since they make everything, they might indeed be a superpower.

Art

[GGKoul]

China already is. 

Sure they didn't win WWII, but they are winning a far greater war, an economic one against the US.

The Chinese can make anything faster and cheaper then any US or G7 country can.  And easily could assemble a far bigger soldier force then the US could ever imagine. 

The only problem is, the Chinese ground troops would never make it to US shores.

[Crazy Cooter]

Watch Taiwan, there might be some offense there in the next couple years.

[SamSom]

I guess yaw are not just a bunch of NeoGeo Fanatics In here but what makes you think that they can not reach the US shoreswith so many troops at their disposal

[mr.Curmudgeon]

Answer=Yes.

The sun has set on America's empire.
mrC

[GGKoul]

I guess yaw are not just a bunch of NeoGeo Fanatics In here but what makes you think that they can not reach the US shoreswith so many troops at their disposal

Because the US has a much larger navy then the Chinese.

[mccoy178]

China has quite a ways to go as far as being the next hegemony.  It might happen in our lifetimes, but I doubt it.  We have our hands in too many pots to just fade away as the dominate power.  They are about as much the dominating world power as the USSR was in the 20th century.  They do produce a hell of a lot, and they have a few dozen more peasants, but they have major issues to address if they are to be world dominate.  The word "nuclear" kind of changed the scope of things as far as the traditional path to dominance is concerned.  Almost all of the major power changes in the past two centuries relied tremendously upon the industrial revolutions.  We are still near the top of many developing topics and again, I don't see us just getting passed by in the breeze.  I believe they have made strides and have stepped onto the scene in a major way, but I don't plan on hunkering down anytime soon.  If I was Taiwanese, that would be a different story................

[jbox]

Because the US has a much larger navy then the Chinese.

Irrelevant. The US will never be successfully invaded while the ruling administration is willing to participate in 'stalemate' scorched earth tactics. Your raw tonnage ratings, while staggering high, are no longer the deciding factor in the final outcome of any modern war. Even during WW2 it became clear that the future of warfare all came down to espionage and missile technology...

[APFelon]

 

Watch Taiwan, there might be some offense there in the next couple years.  As far as reaching US soil, all they have to do is fly to Mexico and walk right over.  How many thousands of people come across each day?

Oh, brother. I honestly hope you don't think the invasion and occupation of a neighboring nation state would result in no immediate military action by the United States and the impending invasion of the US would be left to be handled by the border patrol. Just damn.

Yes, we all know that global warfare works exactly like the boardgame RISK. Occupation of Mexico is simply a matter of flying troops over. The invasion of the United States is merely the order to invade an adjascent territory. The United States only has two territories (Eastern United States and Western United States) with maybe a stack of ten armies on them each. A few lucky rolls of the dice, and we are all doomed. 

China already is.

Sure they didn't win WWII, but they are winning a far greater war, an economic one against the US.

The Chinese can make anything faster and cheaper then any US or G7 country can.

I heard this about Japan in the early 1980s. This isn't a new song, it's simply "second verse, same as the first". The difference is that Japan and China have two different political and economic methods. Japan's is beneficial to business and manufacturing operations. Just recently, the Chinese government didn't like the recent (post Hong Kong reunification) non-state controlled businesses and cracked down on them, and even more recently, have been putting economic and political pressure on Hong Kong itself.

On top of that, I speculate that a government controlled industrial base would not be a resilliant as a non-government controlled industrial base. Think hydra versus snake. Chop off the head of a hydra, a few more grow back. Slice off the head of a snake, and it's a goner. Focused industrial strikes with conventional or nuclear weapons against China would be very, very effective against aggressive expansion.

Aside from that, I'm not quite sure what you meant by "China didn't win World War II". China was a defensive participant in that war and had some serious internal issues at that point. They were in no position to "win" anything. You know that the US wasn't at war with China, right? And you know that the US  actually helped the Chinese repulse the Japanese invasion force with military aid, right?

Look, China does not have a worldwide military presence like the UK and the US does. Any rapid military expansion would most likely run in to severe supply and transport issues, especially of they conducted cross-ocean operations. The US, on the other hand, have well supplied military complexes in Japan, South Korea and the Philipines, military bases on numerous Pacific islands including Hawaii, not to mention our other allies in Oceania..

Answer=Yes.

The sun has set on America's empire.

And if it isn't dead yet, we need to hit it with a shovel a few times. I hope you aren't a coroner. If you are, I hope that you advise the surviving family to bury their "deceased" with a walkie-talkie so that they can call for help and be dug up.

I keep reading threads like this. Is realistic optomism out of fad this week? Seriously guys, bone up a little on history, modern warfare and geopolitical relations before you post some of this wacky stuff. I'd say 90% of threads like these are littered with "facts" pulled from thin air.

APf

[Dexter]

They already are, and economically they're the biggest. It's good to be in the Euro zone having China as a major trading partner 

[Crazy Cooter]

Oh, brother. I honestly hope you don't think..

It was meant as a joke.
But I really think they could beat us around the globe, and then come here.  Or just beat us around the globe and leave us alone at home.  That would still bring them (and communism) to the top of the the charts.

[fredster]

China is a huge technological force now.  They are getting progressively more sophisticated.  I don't know if they are the biggest Trading partner to the US, but they have to be in the top 3.

It used to be people laughed at China's products. Not anymore, they are getting very good at making high tech. 

And they have a huge military force.

We aren't going to screw with China. China does what it wants.  So far it has followed a pretty isolationist policy, but that may change very soon. 

My bet is that if China does take action against Tawian, we aren't going to do a single thing.

[Crazy Cooter]

I really hope we stay out of it.  it's like if Texas decided they wanted to be communist and China backed them.  If the US went in to slap around Texas, would China really want to get involved?  No, we're *right there* and can swat China out.

Now taiwan is *right there* for China.  They want to go democratic.  If we step in, will we "win" or will we be "swatted out"?  We'd take the beating unlike any other in history.  It would be like marching off a cliff.  I don't see any way for the US to "defend" taiwan without going into a full-scale war with China.

[fredster]

I don't think we would, at least not us Directly.

We could hold them off.  Apparently you weren't in the Army or any Forces Cooter.  Simple war stratagey really.

The way to win would be to go for the land mass itself. Hold it and pull the Navy in to blockade it.  With our technology we could do it if we could build the force up big enough quickly enough.

I'm sure we could hold it if the nuclear option wasn't used.

I'm sure we could hold the Continental US too.  It's the nuclear thing that makes it Tricky.  Hopefully Reagan actually made some of those weather satillites into something really cool.

[ChadTower]

The only problem is, the Chinese ground troops would never make it to US shores.

Sure they could.  They'd put on sombreros and come through the Mexican border.  They could be in the US and working for two years before anyone noticed.

We all seem to agree that China can manufacture anything faster and cheaper... but not weapons, I suppose?

[fredster]

Chinese SKS's.  Go for about $100 here.  (what is that, $6000 canadian?)

[Grasshopper]

I don't think it's likely that China will invade Taiwan in the near future despite the sabre rattling. Why should they? They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker. They can afford to play the long game and bide their time.

But if they did invade Taiwan then we'd probably end up with a Cuban missile crisis situation i.e. a long period of brinkmanship followed by an uneasy compromise.

There would be a lot of posturing but I don't think either side would risk a direct military confrontation because it would almost certainly escalate and end up with WMDs being used.

The days when major industrialised countries went to war are gone. The stakes are just too high these days.

[fredster]

They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker.

How so?

The days when major industrialised countries went to war are gone. The stakes are just too high these days.

Don't bet on that.  Things change.  20 years ago we were facing the USSR down and expecting war.  Who would have thought we'd be fighting at this in the Mid East on 9/10/01?

All it would take would be a huge economic meltdown to change things around.  Oil could do that.  A misplaced Nuke could do that.

Russia isn't what it used to be, but it's still a superpower.  England went to war in the '80's over land. 

[ChadTower]

They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker.

Uh, yeah.  Good work, math wiz.  If they're getting stronger, relatively speaking, we are getting weaker.  Reflexivity works that way.

[Grasshopper]

China is getting stronger in economic terms. It will eventually get stronger in military terms as well.

With regards to your second point, my mistake. I meant to say the days when major industrialised countries went to war WITH EACH OTHER are gone.

Iraq is not a major industrialised country and neither is Argentina.

I'm not saying wars won't happen but they'll tend to be proxy wars fought in the third world.

[Grasshopper]

They're getting stronger whilst the west, at least in relative terms, is getting weaker.

Uh, yeah.  Good work, math wiz.  If they're getting stronger, relatively speaking, we are getting weaker.  Reflexivity works that way.

Not true. The economies of most western countries are expanding but not at China's pace. We're also getting stronger militarily as well thanks to new technology. But China will overtake us in that area as well eventually.

[ChadTower]

Not true. The economies of most western countries are expanding but not at China's pace. We're also getting stronger militarily as well thanks to new technology. But China will overtake us in that area as well eventually.

Yes, it IS true.  The key word in his equation is RELATIVELY.  If they are gaining on us, we are getting weaker relative to them.  It's a very simple piece of grammar.

[mccoy178]

I don't forsee any major confrontations anytime soon.  I thought the question was wether or not China was the next biggest super power.  Economically, they are a force to be reconned with.  They probably will be the next hegemony due to the fact they have the size and the resources, and most importantly, a drive to be the leader.  Look what they did to the steal industry last year.  I think we are more like the Roman empire.  We are almost to the point of watching us kill each other for entertainment (reality t.v. anyone?).  It's hard to get to the top, but impossible to stay there.  I'm more worried about the people who lead our country than China.  Why would anybody in Congress care about a woman in Florida enough to grab all the headlines?  What about Social Security?  That's why we are going into decline.  We wouldn't need the oil if money didn't make the world go 'round.  Taiwan and South Korea are going to cause us problems in the future, but I jst can't see us taking action to the next level.  Nobody wants that.  The Iraq war was about as far is it will get without a major incident (like 9/11).  As far as the conspiracy theorists, the Chinese have about as much a chance to invade the mainland, as the terrorists have had in causing terror strikes.  We're not some walk in the park.  If we get motivated, the world will know.  When you have WWII on your resume, it's pretty hard to prove the statement wrong. 

[Grasshopper]

Not true. The economies of most western countries are expanding but not at China's pace. We're also getting stronger militarily as well thanks to new technology. But China will overtake us in that area as well eventually.

Yes, it IS true.  The key word in his equation is RELATIVELY.  If they are gaining on us, we are getting weaker relative to them.  It's a very simple piece of grammar.

Sigh, I really don't want to get into a semantic nit picking game with you.

[Grasshopper]

Forgot to answer the original question.

The answer is clearly yes.

[DrewKaree]

I don't forsee any major confrontations anytime soon.  I thought the question was wether or not China was the next biggest super power.  Economically, they are a force to be reconned with.  They probably will be the next hegemony due to the fact they have the size and the resources, and most importantly, a drive to be the leader.  Look what they did to the steal industry last year.  I think we are more like the Roman empire.  We are almost to the point of watching us kill each other for entertainment (reality t.v. anyone?).  It's hard to get to the top, but impossible to stay there.  I'm more worried about the people who lead our country than China.  Why would anybody in Congress care about a woman in Florida enough to grab all the headlines?  What about Social Security?  That's why we are going into decline.  We wouldn't need the oil if money didn't make the world go 'round.  Taiwan and South Korea are going to cause us problems in the future, but I jst can't see us taking action to the next level.  Nobody wants that.  The Iraq war was about as far is it will get without a major incident (like 9/11).  As far as the conspiracy theorists, the Chinese have about as much a chance to invade the mainland, as the terrorists have had in causing terror strikes.  We're not some walk in the park.  If we get motivated, the world will know.  When you have WWII on your resume, it's pretty hard to prove the statement wrong. 

Two words.  Carriage.  Return.

Simplified, hit that "enter" button a few times in there.  It reads as if you require deep heaving breaths when finished, and is brutal on the eyes, unlike my posts which are brutal on the eyes for SO many more reasons

[DrewKaree]

So the current superpower can't even figure out how to get basic necessitites to its people?  Nice standards you work under

360 million Chinese without safe drinking water, chronic urban shortages

Hey, seeing as how they're the current superpower, how about you start focusing your efforts on questioning why the world's superpower has such a problem with environmental issues in their country and how it affects other countries. 

[missioncontrol]

So the current superpower can't even figure out how to get basic necessitites to its people?

[DrewKaree]

They can get drinking water.

OH...I forgot to add on there - discuss:   

[missioncontrol]

They can get drinking water.

but how safe is the drinking water

[DrewKaree]

They can get drinking water.

but how safe is the drinking water

Where do you think a homeless person is going to choose to get his water from - the dirty puddle in the gutter, or head into a McDonald's bathroom and find the sink?

I'll go with homeless people being smart enough to stay alive, therefore, they'll choose the local bathroom of some place near them to find water.

I'll go a step further and say the water coming out of the sink in a bathroom is billions of times cleaner than Chinese puddle water.

[APFelon]

Good gravy. Are all of you so young as to not remember that these EXACT SAME THINGS were said about Japan in the late '70s early '80s?

They can manufacture things cheaper and faster blah blah blah they will dominate the Pacific Rim blah blah they will soon demand to remilitarize yadda yadda yadda.

Yeah... Well, so how's that coming along?

AND... this exact same stuff was said about China in the early '90s, except in that scenario, the Chinese were supposed to dominate the Olympics by the year 2008. Anyone want to place some early wagers on their prospects?

China may someday become the world's next superpower, but it isn't going to be today and it won't be tomorrow. The deck is incredibly stacked against them.

No offshore military bases.

Inefficient centralized government.

Incredibly poor infastructure.

Stifled religious and human rights issues.

Encirclement in the Pacific by the US and allies of the US.

Focused on protectionism and isolationism.

Insignificant domestic oil production.

... and this is just the SHORT LIST of issues China needs to overcome before they can have a seat at the "superpower" buffet.

APf

[ChadTower]

Not yet, but they ARE creating huge waves in international commodities markets simply by the volume of their demand.  Here in MA the price of lumber is skyrocketing... why?  All vendors say the same thing:  their suppliers are selling it all to China.

[Dartful Dodger]

look at our homeless population

I think Wendy's found a solution to that problem.

[Crazy Cooter]

*Does a superpower need to have military stationed all over the world?
*Right now China has a greater influence on the world economy than any other country.  They are on par with the entire EU.
*They have nuclear energy and weapons.
*They have like 20%? of the worlds population.
*They're working on a deal to score technologically advanced weapons that can compete with the US.
*They may be encircled with US allies, but nobody is willing to touch them.
*Sure their govmnt is stifling, but Germany came a looong way with the facist govmt they had ("superpower" wise, "morally" = a whole different topic).
*There are a bunch of "superpower" countries that don't have significant oil production.

I'd be willing to bet money that China will hook up with Iran for some oil (if they don't already get it from there).

[DrewKaree]

Oh, I get it now!

No one wants to define what a "Super Power" is!

In keeping with my callous pro-American beliefs, I'm defining a super power as what America is, and everyone else sucks

Go on, rain down the boos (or whistle - whoever thought THAT crap up ) I can take all your abuse...after all....I'm American....I expect it 

[shmokes]

We should just turn China into a parking lot.

[APFelon]

 

*Does a superpower need  to have military stationed all over the world?

In order to qualify as a "superpower", yes. A superpower should be able to project force anywhere in the world within a short manner of time. China does not have this ability, nor the allies.

*Right now China has a greater influence on the world economy than any other country.  They are on par with the entire EU.

What numbers are you using? GNP, GDP, simple consumption by the population, exports, imports, what? If the economy collapses in China, would this cause a worldwide collapse? Is the world economy based on the Chinese Yen? (let me give you a hint: The answer is no.)

*They have nuclear energy and weapons.

So does Pakistan and North Korea.

*They have like 20%? of the worlds population.

Which is an untapped resourse. Look at my earlier Olympic anecdote.

*They're working on a deal to score technologically advanced weapons that can compete with the US.

...and this is looking less and less likely to happen. The EU is starting to wise up. This is from the Sydney Morning Herald:

The "Anti-Secession Law" passed by the rubber-stamp Chinese parliament this month, designed to quelch moves towards formal independence in Taiwan, has boomeranged on Beijing.

On Saturday afternoon in Taipei, President Chen Shui-bian will orchestrate a massive protest against the law and its threat of "non-peaceful means" should Taiwan's politicians step beyond the law's ill-defined markers.

International opinion, especially in the democratic countries where Beijing needs to improve support for its Taiwan policies, has been generally critical of the law, with Dr Rice calling it "unhelpful".

Most embarrassing of all, the anti-secession law has slowed and possibly derailed the push by Germany and France to lift the European Union's arms embargo on China, imposed after the 1989 massacre around Tiananmen Square in Beijing.

The law was cited by the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, as a new obstacle. Britain had been supporting the lifting of the ban, but this week signalled that it wanted to postpone a decision because of US concerns.

Several other European states are also opposed - including Italy, Sweden and Belgium.

Whoopsie daisy.

*They may be encircled with US allies, but nobody is willing to touch them.

And why not? If China becomes belligerant, you think no one will do anything about it? That explains your "invade Mexico and march north" theory. 

*Sure their govmnt is stifling, but Germany came a looong way with the facist govmt they had ("superpower" wise, "morally" = a whole different topic).

I would like you to make the case that the Nazi economy is similar to the Chinese economy. When the Nazis took power, Germany was in a horrible depression and nationalizing the formerly privately-owned industries simply stripped the reigns from the owners... the businesses were already set up and running before Hitler and co. took over. It would take some time before the centralization of industry would be noticable under that system. China hasn't had private business in their nation for over 60 years. It is so rigid that it's brittle.

*There are a bunch of "superpower" countries that don't have significant oil production.

Which superpower nation would that be? Go ahead and say the UK, but BP have their hands in foreign refineries all around the globe... and besides, it would hard to define the UK as a "superpower" anymore since they granted independence to most of their former colonies and commonwealths. What other country could still be considered a superpower? I'm not sure that you quite know what superpower means.

I'd be willing to bet money that China will hook up with Iran for some oil (if they don't already get it from there).

They already have an oil commitment from that whackjob that runs Venezuela. The world oil market is open to everyone, even China. My argument is that they cannot sustain a motorized workforce or army during a time of difficult economic times or international war. Not that they have somehow been frozen out of the world markets.

APf