When is Wii going to take off?

[ChadTower]

Nintendo won't die even if the Wii tanks.  Nintendo is the market leader in handheld gaming.  Sega was primarily a console company only.  Even if the Wii doesn't do as well as it is doing now, it won't hurt Nintendo nearly as much as the Dreamcast and Saturn hurt Sega.

[shmokes]

Like Chad said, they're making money hand over fist in the handheld market. It's probably neither here nor there, though, cos Nintendo's gonna be profitable with the Wii, even if they aren't market leader.  Like I said, if their Gamecube business turned a profit (it did) so will their Wii business.  For one thing, the Gamecube was sold early on at a loss, whereas, from day one Nintendo has made a profit on every Wii sold.  I mean, how can they possibly not make money.  They're making money on all the hardware, they still have a shrinking, but sizable fan base that will buy every 1st party game released (and, importantly, their 1st party games continue to be first-rate).  And their system is selling like gangbusters. 

I predict that they will fall behind Sony and MS in this console generation, but at this point I think they are already guaranteed success.  Frankly, I would probably not have nearly so much to complain about if Nintendo hadn't disappointed with its last two consoles.  I think that 3rd party support for the launch was tepid because developers had lost faith in Nintendo -- probably figured they were doomed to follow in Sega's footsteps.  Now that the console has been such a hit publishers/developers are ramping up support and transferring lots of resources into Wii development (EA bought a new studio just to develop for Wii), so we'll start getting more games -- they'll just come later than usual.

Anyway, I still think that the controller has serious fundamental problems -- bad enough that I don't think the Wii can achieve or maintain #1 status in the market.  But the Wii will still be a success, at least financially, and certainly moreso than Gamecube was.

[ChadTower]

In each of the last two generations I prefer the Nintendo entry.     In fact the only generation that Nintendo was part of that I do not prefer the Nintendo entry is 16 bit.

[hulkster]

i didnt read all 5 pages of this thread so if i repeat something, sue me i guess.

sony missed the boat this time around.  its too expensive, and they relied too much on their current fan base.  the ps2 wasnt that expensive and so everybody got one, plus it was the only system with great graphics and tons of games at the time.  now you have the 360 with the same graphics at a cheaper price.  i bought a ps2 when it was priced at $199 because of all the games out for it that i couldnt play on my gamecube.  but now that 90% of the big games are coming to the 360 as well, theres no reason for me to buy a ps3. 

as much as i enjoy the 360, and the wii....i can say that at least the wii doesnt crash on me and give me disc read errors.  the 360 is basically a pc, and sometimes i feel like its a pc with windows ME on it. 

as for the wii's "crappy games".  what games were out for the 360 the first year that were just phenomenal?  i didnt buy one until recently because unless you liked star wars and crappy original titles, it sucked.  the first year for the 360 wasnt all that great, and i dont think the first year for the wii (other than first party titles) will be all that great either.  a lot of the reviews are basically saying "its a good idea, but the controls need work the second time around".  the second time around is when i think the wii games will take off.

[shmokes]

The 360's launch library sucked.  They did get a lot of good games before the next holiday season, though (Dead Rising, Oblivion, Gears of War, a bunch of others . . .).  Wii will get more good games, of course.  The thing that concerns me, is the motion controllers seem to only work for things that require very little precision (like Wii bowling).  When it comes to small, precise movements, the controllers do not appear to be sensitive enough to do the job (like the putting game in Wii Sports Golf, or the entire Wii Sports Boxing game).  These do not strike me as developers just needing to get a handle on programming for the new controller (particularly since we're talking about a 1st party game, here).  It seems like it's a hardware problem that no amount of programming can cure.

We'll see, I guess.  Considering that I own a Wii, and not a PS3 or 360, I obviously hope that I am wrong and the system ends up kicking ass in every  possible way.

[Rachel]

I also failed to read the first 5 pages of this thread so please excuse any rehashing, but...
Wait about 6-12 months for the wii games. Most developers put their money and instinct into the PS3 being a winner out of the gate. But, with 1/10th the cost ($30million PS3, $2-3m highpoint for Wii), 1/3rd the devtime, a massive market share right out of the gate, and EASIER development (Tons more companies are certified as Nintendo developers than PS3) everyone who isn't being paid by sony to develop their games is shifting focus. Add to that all the little guys out there who are able to develop for the wii no problem and the publishers handing them nice big sacks o' cash to do it and you're gunna see some decent titles starting now and shipping by year's end.
PS3? Wait 3 years, then people will figure out how the damned thing even Works. EA says they're only using about 20% of it in their titles and there are very few people qualified to Really push the system. Not many game programmers survive past 5 years experience these days, sadly. In addition, Sony is a notoriously painful platform to develop for ( PS2 = )

As for some of the posts I glanced being concerned with the wiimote? During those devcycles they didn't really HAVE the wiimote in hand as much as they'd like. You'll see a lot more refinement now that the console has shipped and people have seen what works and doesn't.

[shmokes]

I'm with you to some degree.  I really am.  There are some good points there.  But I'm not talking about 3rd party developers, or even 2nd party developers.  I'm talking about EAD.  I'm talking about Nintendo's in-house 1st party development teams.  Play Wii Sports Boxing.  It's ridiculously bad.  It can be kind of fun as a diversion, but the accuracy is flat-out terrible.  Awful.  I can't think of enough adjectives to describe how poorly the motion sensors translate real-world punches into Mii punches.  Same goes for Golf.  The fairway game is decent enough.  But get on the green, where you need very short, small moves and the remote simply fails.  When the ball is just a foot or two from the hole it often takes five or six tries just to get the remote to register that you moved it at all.  These people had access to the remote from day one.  They built this game from the ground up for one purpose and one purpose only -- to show you what the Wii controller was capable of.

[hulkster]

I'm with you to some degree.  I really am.  There are some good points there.  But I'm not talking about 3rd party developers, or even 2nd party developers.  I'm talking about EAD.  I'm talking about Nintendo's in-house 1st party development teams.  Play Wii Sports Boxing.  It's ridiculously bad.  It can be kind of fun as a diversion, but the accuracy is flat-out terrible.  Awful.  I can't think of enough adjectives to describe how poorly the motion sensors translate real-world punches into Mii punches.  Same goes for Golf.  The fairway game is decent enough.  But get on the green, where you need very short, small moves and the remote simply fails.  When the ball is just a foot or two from the hole it often takes five or six tries just to get the remote to register that you moved it at all.  These people had access to the remote from day one.  They built this game from the ground up for one purpose and one purpose only -- to show you what the Wii controller was capable of.

agreed, wii boxing and wii golf werent very accurate at all..especially the putting aspect.  maybe they didnt make it sensitive enough....i think it will get better by the end of the year though.  wii sports 2 anyone?

[shmokes]

If the problem is shoddy programming, yes.  But no amount of programming can make up for shoddy equipment.  If the accelerometers are simply not sensitive enough to detect fine motion, Jesus Christ himself can't program software that will fix the problem.  Jesus Christ was a computer programmer, wasn't he?  I know he had some common profession . . .

So, hopefully, the programming teams were just crunched for time and did not have enough experience working with the kind of data the controllers were giving them.  Hopefully putting in Wii golf doesn't read the swings you're making because of a software glitch.  But frankly, that seams pretty unlikely to me.  I'm hoping, but I ain't holding my breath.

[Rachel]

It's not the controller that is shoddy. Like any console launch, things on the wii were changing very very late in dev cycle and even firstparty developers were having the rug pulled out from under them with design, asset, and hardware changes right before ship.

There's a lot to get used to when playing with an accelerometer driven controller too. It has no idea it's position in worldspace (unless you're using the pointer, which you can't usually rely on). The biggest thing is that you need to use it's strongsuits and avoid the weaknesses. Thrusting motion is a huge problem with it, because the speed at which the average person can thrust compared to swing. In addition, any rotation While thrusting, as people are prone to do, starts distorting it.

I'm not sure wiigolf's algorithms (or any of wii sports)and I haven't spent much time playing it so I haven't figured it out yet. I've been able to get some very accurate downvector readings from the wiimote so far, though, so I doubt they're just doing anglechange comparissons. Instead, it looks like they're trying to keep track if it's orientation in the world through it's motion rather than just checking downvector. This may account for some of the spottier behavior with the wiimote resetting it's downvector (for zeroing out purposes) if you hold it still too long, and sometimes getting confused as to it's position. Again, this is sorta just guessing based on a drunken party memory.

Long story short, you're gunna see a lot better games coming out in the future now that makers are seeing what works (rayman raving rabbids) and what doesn't (anything involving thrusting). Just a matter of figuring out the right tool for the job (you use a hammer to drive in nails, not to make milkshakes).

[igboo]

I've found that, with practice, I can even hit the short putt shots pretty accurately.  The trick is not in how far you swing the Wiimote, it's in the speed of your swing.  I've gotten much better results at putting by taking a larger backswing and then slooowly swinging through the ball.  If I try taking short quick strokes, I either smack the ball off the green or nothing happens at all.

Try taking a smooth, almost full backswing.  Then just slowly swing all the way through the ball.  With some practice I think you'll find your putting improves.

igboo

[shmokes]

I've golfed a five under par (and could do much better with more practice, I think).  It's possible, like you described, to work around the limitations of the controller, but it doesn't make for a very satisfying putting game.  Having to go to strange lengths to make the putts work reasonably well merely illustrates exactly what I'm talking about. 

Nintendo has made a huge issue of appealing to non-gamers and expanding the market with grandparents and women, etc..  When you hand a non-gamer the remote for a game of golf, they end up super frustrated on the green, not understanding why the character on the screen is not doing what they are doing.  I can't tell you how many times I've heard someone, after driving reasonably well to the green say, "Why isn't he hitting it," just before they wack the thing right off the green again, especially if they were only a foot or so away from the hole.  You can explain to them, "Oh, yeah, there's this really nonintuitive way that you can get fairly consistent results on the green.  First, forget everything you know about golf.  Next, wind up like you're going to chip or drive, then very slowly bring the controller down in an arc and follow through the ball. 

It works, but it's bad design, and if its the best that can be done because of controller limitations, it's a REALLY serious problem.  If it's just crappy programming, that's another thing altogether, but that's REALLY uncharacteristic of Nintendo's software development studios.

[Rachel]

Nintendo has made a huge issue of appealing to non-gamers and expanding the market with grandparents and women, etc.. 

As a woman game programmer, ouch.

The wiimote as a piece of hardware is fine. And I'd hesitate to refer to the programming as 'crappy'. Even the firstparty developers don't have the actual Final hardware until around the time the console is shipping. When you're talking about a 6-10 month devcycle, what about everything leading up to beta? Guesswork and nonfinal hardware. The mistake was treating the wiimote closer to a mocap device than something that has accelerometers. Past that, how many people have practice programming for that sort of hardware?

The hardware is already doing great things (raving rabbids and warioware?)

Right now, the Wii has already taken off. Still selling out off the truck and there are tons of great games coming down the pipe. Right now it's not whether people will buy a wii, PS3, or a 360, it's whether they will buy a PS3 or 360 to go with the Wii they're gunna get anyways.

[AtomSmasher]

Just curious, but has anyone tried the new Tiger Woods golf game on the Wii?  I haven't tried it myself, but some of the reviews I've seen say that the controller is actually too precise, making the game feel too much like real golf, which isn't necessarily a good thing since real golf is hard.

I think the lack of precision in Wii sports is just the fault of a rushed development, not the fault of poor hardware.  Of course these debates are pointless right now since no one here really knows for sure, we just have to wait for more games to be released to find out.

[ChadTower]

I've gotten much better results at putting by taking a larger backswing and then slooowly swinging through the ball.  If I try taking short quick strokes, I either smack the ball off the green or nothing happens at all.

Try taking a smooth, almost full backswing.  Then just slowly swing all the way through the ball.  With some practice I think you'll find your putting improves.

igboo

Wait, so you're saying that if you putt with a proper real life motion, you get better results?  The hell you say!  What you're describing, mostly, is a proper putting motion.  There is no short quick stroke in a strong green game.

[shmokes]

Chad has never played golf.

[ChadTower]

I played probably 20 times a few years ago.  It wasn't for me.  I was decent but I just didn't enjoy it enough.

[shmokes]

Well, a proper putt is done with a swing that is something akin to a pendulum swinging, and a good rule of thumb is to start with about 1 inch of backswing for every foot of travel you want the ball to make.  You would never see a golfer use anything like a full (or even quarter) back swing on the green* and someone who knows how to golf would not be slowly and deliberately moving the club in the motion described above.  You pull it back and basically let it swing forward like a pendulum.




*maybe a quarter when there's some crazy steep hill that has to be climbed, but . . .

[Chris G]

Just curious, but has anyone tried the new Tiger Woods golf game on the Wii?  I haven't tried it myself, but some of the reviews I've seen say that the controller is actually too precise, making the game feel too much like real golf, which isn't necessarily a good thing since real golf is hard.

Wow, that's a new one... "this game sucks because it's too realistic".  Golf is fun for me largely BECAUSE it's hard.  Maybe that doesn't translate well to video games for some people.

[igboo]

I'm with Chad.  While my intinct is a short quick stroke during putting, my short game admittedly sucks.  

The best greens players i've ever played with have always done what I describe above.  Almost full backswing,  slow, full follow through.

[ChadTower]

My grandfather was a regional champion for like 8 of ten years when he taught me.  His putting method was a fairly large slow pendulum swing.  There is more than one method for success.  The concept was to swing through the ball as if it's not even there.  Works well with practice.

[shmokes]

Okay, well, I think you people are batshit crazy 

Nevertheless, it still doesn't erase the problem.  And even those players you speak of who wind up like they're going to drive even though they're on the green, would certainly not do this when the ball is sitting on the rim of the cup.  They'd just tap it in.

[ChadTower]

And even those players you speak of who wind up like they're going to drive even though they're on the green, would certainly not do this when the ball is sitting on the rim of the cup.

That's not what he said and not what I said.  I said an even slow pendulum motion.  When does someone drive off the tee with an even slow pendulum motion?

[Chris G]

It sounds like what igboo wrote, though...

Almost full backswing

[ChadTower]

Within context.  A full backswing for a putt is an entirely different thing than a full backswing for a drive. 

[shmokes]

It still doesn't make any sense, even in context (though I really think Igboo was talking about bringing the club up above the shoulder like you would when you drive), to do a full backswing regardless of how far away you are from the cup.  And even if some weird people would golf this way, it doesn't make sense for the game to only work right for people who golf in this bizarro-world way.

I mean, watch how people put, even on very long puts.  It takes very very very little force to get the ball to roll a long way on a green:

[Dervacumen]

I've golfed a five under par.

Thanks for the complex.  I always use my interest in video games as an excuse for my crappy golf skills.
That's awesome.

[ChadTower]

I'm pretty sure he meant in the game.

[shmokes]

If it's any consolation it was during a four-player game that my wife cut out of after the first hole, so I golfed for her.  I golfed par with my character, but five under with hers, so as far as official records go my wife has golfed five under par.  It was cool, though.  Got three eagles in a single round.

In real life I'm terrible at golf.  I only started playing for the first time last September.

[Dervacumen]

I'm pretty sure he meant in the game.

Uh.  Yeah.  I knew that.

In real life I'm terrible at golf.

Thank God I can still use my excuse.

[igboo]

It sounds like what igboo wrote, though...

Almost full backswing

Actually, I was thinking aroung a 45 degree angle or a little less from vertical as opposed to almost 90 deg. for driving.  I can just imagine the verbal abuse from my family winding up to drive my putt.

[ChadTower]

I can just imagine the verbal abuse from my family winding up to drive my putt.

[igboo]

Well, thats what I get for not sleeping after a 12 hour nightshift. 

[KenToad]

Nintendo has made a huge issue of appealing to non-gamers and expanding the market with grandparents and women, etc.. 

As a woman game programmer, ouch.

The wiimote as a piece of hardware is fine. And I'd hesitate to refer to the programming as 'crappy'. Even the firstparty developers don't have the actual Final hardware until around the time the console is shipping. When you're talking about a 6-10 month devcycle, what about everything leading up to beta? Guesswork and nonfinal hardware. The mistake was treating the wiimote closer to a mocap device than something that has accelerometers. Past that, how many people have practice programming for that sort of hardware?

The hardware is already doing great things (raving rabbids and warioware?)

Right now, the Wii has already taken off. Still selling out off the truck and there are tons of great games coming down the pipe. Right now it's not whether people will buy a wii, PS3, or a 360, it's whether they will buy a PS3 or 360 to go with the Wii they're gunna get anyways.

Why ouch?  Older folks and women largely make up the non-gamer population.  Nintendo's strategy has been to tap into largely untapped markets.  And we might even get some more clues as to whether woman have been reluctant to game because the games are not being targeted to them or whether women are just less likely to be gamers, i.e. for some other reason.  I think it probably is a complex issue, related somewhat to the argument surrounding why males are so much less likely to read novels (or just less likely to read).  We shouldn't even get into the phallic nature of the joystick versus the more sensually ambiguous thumbpad.   

As far as the Wii already taken off, everyone knows it has been selling well.  The question is whether it will be able to maintain a stellar library of first and third-party titles in the future.

[ChadTower]

Well, if you want to get semantic, programmers don't make design decisions, so they would have no effect on any of that.  Programmers follow specs handed to them by architects, who follow specs developed by the architects and designers.  A programmer would have creative input into algorithm implementation but overall that doesn't have a ton of flexibility to it in modern software.

[Chris G]

IRL I've never seen anyone take a putter back further than about knee high unless it's the British Open and they're putting from 30 yards off the green.  Maybe I'm not understanding you guys, but it doesn't sound like this controller resembles real golf at all, at least for putting...

[ChadTower]

We're not talking about bringing it back high.  We're talking about bringing it back far, contextually, for a putt.

[Chris G]

I hear what you're saying but this non-contextual description is what's still torquing my trousers...

Actually, I was thinking aroung a 45 degree angle or a little less from vertical as opposed to almost 90 deg. for driving.

[shmokes]

Even knee high is just crazy.  I was thinking about this about two hours ago when I was chipping and putting on a practice green (golf class).  18" behind the ball sends the thing flying, and that's nowhere near knee high.  When you're only five or six feet from the cup you only need a few inches of backswing, and this amount of backswing on the Wii generally results in the system not even registering that you did anything. 

[AtomSmasher]

It's almost comical how your judging the hardware on a game that was finished well before the Wii was even released.  It is possible its a hardware problem, but until more games come out, theres no way to know.

On a side note, Wario Ware seemed to be pretty precise with small movements