Peak oil

[Dermbrian]

RollingStone.Com Article

www.peakoil.com


In the mid 1960's, I used to love watching a TV show called "The 21st Century" as a kid.  It was hosted by Walter Cronkite and sponsored by Union Carbide.  It painted a rosy picture of the world of the future.  Air cars.  Giant computers.  The end of illnesses.

I can't form a strong opinion about most environmental issues, because I don't have the science background.  If you believe industry, the environmentalists are wacko.  If you believe enivronmentalists, industries are.  Unfortunately our representative goverment doesn't seem capable of doing the unbiased science to let us know the truth.  But again, that's all just opinion.

Now, if the world is about to, or has already, have demand exceed production of fossil fuels as those same fields begin to go in decline, I think I can form an opinion.  My opinion is that this is a huge problem that will affect us all.  Especially my wonderful kids.

I used to envision only two futures:  Bladerunner (most likely....unchecked capitalism) or Star Trek (most desireable...world of plenty with new discoveries to keep life interesting).

After just giving this a little thought, I suddenly think I've been totally blind to the real likely future of an overpopulated planet running out of the energy that allowed the population to explode in the first place. 

Please help me get back to "don't worry, be happy....it's just a bunch of wackos that are talking trash" or let me know that humanity will find a way to get through this.

Brian

[Bones]

There are clean free energy sources all around us. The oil companies and their trillion dollar business monopolise the development of free energy due to greed.

I don't think the Earths future will be like Bladerunner or Star Trek. I think it will be a barren desolate world free of humans and with little natural resources for the food chain to recover for a very long time.

I reckon this will be the state of the Earth in as little as 500-1000 years and I also believe we are past the point of no return.

Maybe in another 100 million years some species will do it all again.

[Grasshopper]

I'm inclined to agree with you. It's difficult to be anything but pessimistic about the environment.

[SirPeale]

There was an article on Slashdot not long ago regarding a new process for making gasoline and other petroleum products from organic waste.  It was a relatively simple process, relying on heat and pressure, and it did it fairly cheaply.  The caveat was, pretty much, that since there were only a few of these places, it wouldn't make a dent in the needs of the country.

[RayB]

While I too used to love the idea of the "Star Trek" utopian ideals, they are unattainable.

In the Star Trek universe (and I assume we're talking The Next Generation here right?) the idea is that there's no need for money, and people can pursue the careers they dream of, for the sake of personal satisfaction rather than money. (And replicators make it easy to acquire anything a person might want, which wipes out capitalism).

The thing is, what happens to the lazy people? Who cleans the hallways of the Enterprise? (Why is it we never see janitorial staff on those shows?) If people are free to follow careers for personal satisfaction, who will do the menial jobs?

And with replication technology, those replicators won't be free. And they'll need "matter" to construct stuff with, so capitalism won't go away. And people will be needed to design the stuff replicators make.

Sorry if I'm a little off topic here.... 

[Crazy Cooter]

Oil production will (if nothing changes) top out between 2006 & 2008.

[cholin]

Well if all works well, we may soon have fuel-cell cars.  If you dont know how these work:

Hydrogen will be used for "fuel".  Hydrogen is an element of water (H2O).  If you put in pure hydrogen, the only possible leftovers will be water.  If you put in water, you will be left with air.  Theres a few models and stuff that you can buy (I believe theres one on Jameco) that already use fuel cells.  Theres one where you just add water and a model car runs.  The problem is getting pure hydrogen transported.  If we can't use pure hydrogen through pipes, we will need to make it.  Theres a reformer that makes *unpure* hydrogen, leaving behind more than water, polluting the air.  Long complicated process.  WE WILL BE EFFECTIVE EVENTALLY   Until then, we build arcades.

[Dermbrian]

While I too used to love the idea of the "Star Trek" utopian ideals, they are unattainable.

In the Star Trek universe (and I assume we're talking The Next Generation here right?) the idea is that there's no need for money, and people can pursue the careers they dream of, for the sake of personal satisfaction rather than money. (And replicators make it easy to acquire anything a person might want, which wipes out capitalism).

The thing is, what happens to the lazy people? Who cleans the hallways of the Enterprise? (Why is it we never see janitorial staff on those shows?) If people are free to follow careers for personal satisfaction, who will do the menial jobs?

The question of what happens to the  "lazy people" is a valid one.   Our current economy wants them to find a job...any job...regardless of whether the job is a good thing or not.  So we all keep working producing goods and services in order to keep putting food on our family's plates.  And all that productivity uses resources, some of which should probably be conserved.   

If the economy gets destabilized by a decline in the availability of reasonably priced fossil fuel, I'm not sure what that will do to capitalism, but I think our elected representative goverment will be called on to tweak things to a great degree.

Brian

[DrewKaree]

Please help me get back to "don't worry, be happy....it's just a bunch of wackos that are talking trash" or let me know that humanity will find a way to get through this.

Brian

Your Star Trek world will happen, because men are always searching for a new conquest, and as long as the promise of mating with green women like Kirk exists, we'll be damned if we're gonna lose sight of THAT goal! 

[DrewKaree]

There are clean free energy sources all around us.

Such as................... ________________?

You can't say something like that and not give us at least a handful you are referring to.  "All around us" sounds like you have 2 or 3 dozen methods you are thinking of, and he clearly asked for a "don't worry, be happy" solution.

I myself would opt for something with rum

[DrewKaree]

Oil production will (if nothing changes) top out between 2006 & 2008.  At that time the world will be burning it as fast as we can get it out of the ground.

Dude, how can you post stuff like that without even THINKING to give us a link to where you come up with such nonsensical-sounding stuff?  (please notice the emphasis Cooter)

[Bones]

There are clean free energy sources all around us.

Such as................... ________________?

You can't say something like that and not give us at least a handful you are referring to.

[DrewKaree]

I don't pretend to know all the answers

But you play a guy like that on TV, at least, right?

[DrewKaree]

I heard Ducati is working on an atom-smasher for their new bikes, the only problem is, you've gotta be bowlegged to a ridiculous degree to get your legs around it (think Russian gymnast ), and if something goes wrong with it, you'll WISH you had the luck to have pins and screws in various parts of your body 

[paigeoliver]

Well, which one is it? Are we going to destroy the environment with fossil fuels or run out of them? We can't really do both now can we?

Anyway, the auto manufacturers obviously don't actually care about fuel ecomony, we had a 52 mpg GAS car back in 1985 and it only cost $5000 (the Chevy Sprint, later redisgned with worse fuel economy as the Geo Metro). Now all of a sudden they need a $30,000 hybrid that gets WORSE gas mileage?

Now true, the Sprint was only good for about 120K or so before it was worn out, but 120,000 miles divided by 52 is 2307 spent on gas in on the vehicle (at the 80s-Bush rate of $1 per gallon). A NORMAL 20 MPG car would have spent $6000 on gas in the same time period. The car just about paid for itself in fuel savings alone.

They could still make that same little econobox today. Even if they made it $12,000 at tommorrows $3 gas prices it would spend $6900 in gas in it's lifetime, while the ever so popular Cadillac Escalade will spend $21,000 in gas to drive those same miles (replace Escalade with almost anything, I just used the 17 MPG highway figure that it is rated at). The Sprint would pay for itself 100 percent in fuel savings alone.

Not to mention the fact that the big cars/trucks tend to dip down to around 9-11 MPG once they get older.

[Bones]

I think the emphasis should be on the long term solution and not delaying the inevitable with low fuel consumption vehicles. Sure it's great in the short term but eventually you end up at the same point. ie- no more gas and the earths air polluted with what used to be conveniently trapped underground.

[Crazy Cooter]

Oil production will (if nothing changes) top out between 2006 & 2008.

[GGKoul]

So much has advanced in 100 years but the good old filthy combustion engine has remained largely unchanged (in principal at least). Sure today's motors produce more power, use less fuel and last longer but there is still that filth being pumped out of every exhaust pipe.

I've always wondered about that... Why is a 1900's technology still be used today?

[ChadTower]

Well, which one is it? Are we going to destroy the environment with fossil fuels or run out of them? We can't really do both now can we?

Why not?  We destroy it while we are in the process of consuming the fuel.

They could still make that same little econobox today. Even if they made it $12,000 at tommorrows $3 gas prices it would spend $6900 in gas in it's lifetime, while the ever so popular Cadillac Escalade will spend $21,000 in gas to drive those same miles (replace Escalade with almost anything, I just used the 17 MPG highway figure that it is rated at). The Sprint would pay for itself 100 percent in fuel savings alone.

For those among us with a family about which they care:  What happens when that little econobox collides with that Escalade?

[GGKoul]

Just one thing, the automotive companies are doing what then can to reduce emissions.  But what's really hurting the environment is all the small engines.  (Lawn Mower, Gas trimmer)  as those have no smog filter on them.

[DrewKaree]

Just one thing, the automotive companies are doing what then can to reduce emissions.  But what's really hurting the environment is all the small engines.  (Lawn Mower, Gas trimmer)  as those have no smog filter on them.

Then you haven't been paying attention.  The fuel economy on those things not only is increasing, they're also doing the four-stroke dance too, same way they are working on cars.  Also, to say that's what's really hurting the environment isn't understanding the vast differential between the amount of 2-cycle engines in the world vs. the methane champions of the world.

Methinks if you had uttered those words, GG, you could be guilty of harming the ozone yourself with that hot air

[GGKoul]

Just one thing, the automotive companies are doing what then can to reduce emissions.

[Crazy Cooter]

Just one thing, the automotive companies are doing what then can to reduce emissions.

Huh??
The auto companies are the biggest lobbyists against emmision stuff.  They spend a PILE of money to avoid cleaning cars up.  It's all profit margin stuff.  Not only are they not "doing what they can", they try to keep the requirements lower.  Search for mpg requirements and look at that whole battle.  Clean air isn't profitable for them.

[Crazy Cooter]

Nuts.  I forgot my Exxon/OPEC link from this morning.  here you go Drew (it's a long but interesting read):
http://www2.exxonmobil.com/corporate/Citizenship/Corp_citizenship_energy_outlook.asp

[fredster]

Hey, let's not be bad mouthing Star Trek, okay?

Until somebody finds the dilithium Crystals, we are kinda stuck with oil.  I wish that France or Germany or even the UK find a good power source we can all use to fuel factories and cars.

I think I like the I-Robot cars. That's the kinda car I think we'll come up with.

The auto companies are the biggest lobbyists against emission stuff.  They spend a PILE of money to avoid cleaning cars up.  It's all profit margin stuff.  Not only are they not "doing what they can", they try to keep the requirements lower.  Search for mpg requirements and look at that whole battle.  Clean air isn't profitable for them.

I can't agree with that simplistic view. When gas burns it makes those gases. There are limits to technology.  We have come to a point where we will not be able to improve on the internal combustion engine any more. 

Ask yourself if you really believe that we can actually have clean air if we use gasoline and oil to run our cars? Is it really possible?

[menace]

Hey, let's not be bad mouthing Star Trek, okay? Sad

I totally agree with fredster (on this one)

Until cars become like the Eliica:
 (http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/previews/51690/eliica_eightwheeler.html)

I guess we are stuck with either good power--bad for the environment or no power but good for the environment

[Crazy Cooter]

That's my point.

[ChadTower]

people want SUV's not tiny cars with pizza cutter wheels.

People want SUVs because if you collide with an SUV, and you are driving a small car, you and your family die.  There are issues that are as important as fuel economy.  Safety is one of them.

[shmokes]

Your Star Trek world will happen, because men are always searching for a new conquest, and as long as the promise of mating with green women like Kirk exists, we'll be damned if we're gonna lose sight of THAT goal! 

Man (and probably man-made objects) will never leave our solar system.  People who think we will have a highly romanticized idea of what the universe is like.  Consider this: the fastest spacecraft we have ever built is the Cassini spacecraft that recently took all those lovely pictures of Saturn.  I believe it travels at about 35,000 MPH.  The spacecraft that will soon be launched at Pluto is slightly faster than that and will be launched at the most ideal time to give it the shortest trip to that planet.  It will still take the spacecraft 10 years to reach Pluto.  Now here's where it gets crazy.  For that same spacecraft to continue on, at the same speed, just to the end of our solar system -- not to the next solar system,  mind you, just to get to the end of ours -- it would take another 10,000 years.

Even if we could travel at the speed of light you would have to stay onboard a spaceship for four years at that speed just to reach the nearest star.  And there's nothing to even see there.   It's not like we'll find an Alien race there.  IIRC the nearest star that could conceivably have a planet supporting life is like 50 lightyears away or something.  Who's going to be willing to stay on a spaceship for 50 years?  Or even 5 years.  And how the hell do you pack enough food on the spaceship to last for that long?  And if we ever are able to travel at anything like the speed of light, which is unlikely, it's going to be 1000 years down the road.

It's why I think alien abduction stories are so funny.  You supposedly have these Alien creatures that have the technology to travel distances that woudl take hundreds -- thousands of years even at the speed of light, that come here to kidnap us and jam primitive medical instruments up our rectums.  Apparently they're capable of travelling faster than the speed of light (or are incredibly patient beings), but have yet to develop the virtual colonoscopy or the xray machine.

Or maybe they just travelled all this way to scare us with practical jokes (crop circles).

Anyway, yeah.  No Star Trek.

[Dartful Dodger]

I don't think the Earths future will be like Bladerunner or Star Trek. I think it will be a barren desolate world free of humans and with little natural resources for the food chain to recover for a very long time.

What would we need to do to get a Futurama future?

I wouldn't mind a Madd Maxx future either, my Dart would look great wrapped in barbed wire.

[Zero_Hour]

Man (and probably man-made objects) will never leave our solar system.  People who think we will have a highly romanticized idea of what the universe is like.

In much the same way as some guys in the 13-1400's had a romanticized idea of circumnavigating the world. 

To think that we have tapped out the potential of human knowledge is at once depressing, and arrogant. Read up on Quantum Physics - much of it largely theoretical, but you have to start somewhere. We continue to push the bounds of human imagination and achievment.

To think that we have done anything more than scratch the surface of "The Nature of the Universe" would be similar to me assesing world population growth by looking out my back window. Our dataset is miniscule.

Mind you, I don't think that intergalactic travel is ever gonna be an option on my vacation itinerary, but to dismiss it as impossible is as silly as thinking we'll have it solved next week.

[shmokes]

And if we ever are able to travel at anything like the speed of light, which is unlikely, it's going to be 1000 years down the road.

Hey...I left the possibility open a little bit...

[Zero_Hour]

Ah indeed you did, must be an optimist at heart. 

[jbox]

Well, which one is it? Are we going to destroy the environment with fossil fuels or run out of them? We can't really do both now can we?

Irony aside, just to be clear about this - peak oil is not, will not, nor has ever been about the oil running out per se. It is about the fact that getting oil out of the ground is non-trivial, so the supply of oil can only increase at a slow rate regardless of demand.

For normal commodities we don't care, because we'll just buy something else. But we live in the industrial age still (until we can research science VII and build fusion reactors). Thus demand cannot be reduced easily, which means the market price of oil will sky-rocket and cause another depression.

My personal suspicion is that everyone seems to be playing the anti-IP game at the moment. No one wants to foot the bill for researching the tech needed to move from oil, but will be the first to jump up and down screaming at the government that the technology needs to be de-patented for them or society will collapse.

[Bones]

And if we ever are able to travel at anything like the speed of light, which is unlikely, it's going to be 1000 years down the road.

Hey...I left the possibility open a little bit...

You need to think outside the circle grasshopper.

Going from "a" to "b" in a straight line may be the shortest distance between 2 points and therefore at first glance be the quickest, but if you can make the line shorter between the two points then speed, fuel and duration of travel is no longer of relevance.

Any alien race commuting between galaxies or solar systems would therefore have mastered the ability to distort the fabric of space surrounding their spaceship.

It's just common sense really.....

[DrewKaree]

The search for green women to find and "me love you long time" with is a romanticalized^TM notion I refuse to believe man cannot accomplish.  The crop circles, anal probes, and sightings are simply the green women's version of flirting or playing coy....giving us hope while not letting you milk a cow or something

besides, you didn't even take into account warp speed. 

[Arcadiac]

An interesting excerpt from JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER's "The Long Emergency"
Linked here:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?rnd=1112116496265&has-player=true&version=6.0.8.1024

EDIT: I linked the same article as above, seems I have no shortage of brain-fart gas 

Have a read, looks like hard times is on.

[DrewKaree]

Arcadiac, you bring up a point someone else brought up here.  If people paying outrageous prices for gas lived in places that were concerned by this issue, we'd be working on improving our better solutions that would be in widespread use, but no one wants to be the first, they want to be the followers.  As it is, the outrageous prices haven't spurred the advances at the rates environmentalists seemed to think they would.  Whodathunkit?

[RayB]

I thought the Segway was the solution to all this?
 

[Dartful Dodger]

I thought the Segway was the solution to all this?
 

The Segway was the solution for the people who were to lazy to walk and have more dollars than cents.