2004 Exit poll versus results discrepancy examined

[saint]

Summary nutshell: There was a heavier response from Kerry supporters than Bush supporters, skewing the data, and there was not a problem with the vote tabulation. I'm very interested in seeing this studied, as the discrepancy was really bothering me. Not from a "my candidate lost" perspective but from a "I can't trust my elections" perspective. 

Oh, for everyone who refers to it as the "Clinton News Network" -- yes, this article was prominently posted on CNN.com.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/19/exit.polls/index.html

--- saint

[DrewKaree]

I wasn't polled by Zogby but our local news polled me.  I gave false testimony to the reporter. 

Does Zogby et al account for stuff like that, people like me somehow?

No smartassery there, just wondring - as i'm sure theres others like me out there

[RetroJames]

Summary nutshell: There was a heavier response from Kerry supporters than Bush supporters, skewing the data, and there was not a problem with the vote tabulation. I'm very interested in seeing this studied, as the discrepancy was really bothering me. Not from a "my candidate lost" perspective but from a "I can't trust my elections" perspective.

[Dartful Dodger]

Were I inclined to pull out all stops for a candidate, I would probably tell the exit pollers I was voting for the other guy.

I wasn't  involved in an exit poll, but I did recieve a phone poll, and I was inclined.

 

[mr.Curmudgeon]

Don't worry Drew, Dartful...I won't even get into this one.   


mrC

[iwillfearnoevil]

great breakdown by Gerry Daly on http://dalythoughts.com/index.php?p=2674

cnn glosses over the fact that the age of the pollster correlates with the accuracy of their numbers.


This is the only part of the equation which appears to be of significance. They were able, from their data, to determine a correlation between the age of the person conducting the exit poll interviews and the amount of the error (read: overstatement of Democrat support) in the results. Unlike the previous bullet items, this one is controllable. But why would this have happened this time, but not as much in the past?
[i/]
also:
Update 7: Leftist conspiracy theorists will not like page 39.

Some have suggested that the exit poll data could be used as evidence of voter fraud in the 2004 Election by showing error rates were higher in precincts with touch screen and optical scan voting equipment. Our evaluation does not support this hypothesis. In our exit poll sample overall, precincts with touch screens and optical scan voting have essentially the same error rates as those using punch card systems. In the larger urban areas these systems had lower WPEs than punch card precincts.


In other words, when comparing larger urban areas that used touch screens and optical scans to larger urban areas where punch cards were used, the actual vote differed from the exit poll measurement more when punch cards were used.

[lucindrea]

personaly i think the voting should be on a national system ...

here is an idea , registered voiting amercians ALL have social security numbers , how about we make a system ( it's going computer eventully anyway ) where the voter puts their ss# in , they vote for who they want , the system shows them a screen of who they picked and asks for a yes no ( inportant so you can "go back" and fix a mistake before commiting ) , then that system connects to a state computer that records your vote ( state computers contact natational system every 15 mins or so ) and it PRINTS the results on a recpt like system use in cash registers that can be pulled later if needed. ( the recpts go from one roll to another and the used roll are stored for 4 years etc ) .... at least 2 agencies check the systems for errors before they go live. ( to this day i dont belive one of the corner stones of this goverment (voting ) is left to the devices of some private compainies , mainly the ones making the touch screen programs )

this gives you a few options
1. anyone can vote anywhere nd because your # is linked to your district , the screen will present you with canadites that are only for your dist .. lots of absanties ellimated this way.
2. real time data , every 15 mins or so .
3. any system down time or discreptines , any you pull the printed reciptes and count.
4. 90% of this is allready in place , you can file taxes electronicly , i.e. your name and ss# are allready in a centreal database , it should be used for more than just taxes.

[lucindrea]

great breakdown by Gerry Daly on http://dalythoughts.com/index.php?p=2674


In other words, when comparing larger urban areas that used touch screens and optical scans to larger urban areas where punch cards were used, the actual vote differed from the exit poll measurement more when punch cards were used.

the only thing that concerns me is the fact that some places showed numbers like ( making up numbers but you get the point )   10,000 votes in districts that only 7,000 voters are registered .... if that happens in only 1 instance , then their is a MAJROR problem in the system and it NEEDS to be looked into , it's probly just a one time glitch , but the fact that the system is only monitored by 1 private company and not double checked and the fact that the machines do not PRINT a tally for each vote , really needs to be re-visited.

[RacerX]

I just don't answer when I get a call from a pollster.  It's none of their business for whom I vote.

[Mameotron]

I don't understand why anyone is surprised at the inaccuracies of the exit polls.

[DrewKaree]

...how about we make a system ( it's going computer eventully anyway ) where the voter puts their ss# in , they vote for who they want...

You think it's a good idea to have people using their SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER in order to allow them to vote?!?!?! 

If you're so trusting of your federal government, then it's time you stop complaining about the education system.  The government is working on fixing it.  Honest.  It just normally takes several decades to get this stuff worked out.  Really.

[lucindrea]

for starters , anything having to do with government is linked to your ss# anyway , drivers lic is linked to it , taxes are linked to it , anything you do with a bank is linked to it , oh ya , and you need a # to both register for the draft and to register to vote , it's one of the proofs your a citizen ( although i could just print a card on my printer , but hay , it's considered a valid id ) ..
i wasn't saying you say ss# voted for X , you make 2 databases , one just counts votes , the other says ss# has or has not voted and use the ss# to look up district ...


this is the reason i said that their needs to be more than just one agency to monitor this , at least one gov , and one private.


oh and if you want to get technical , us citizens are never mentioned in the voting process of the constitution , only the electors , and is says nothing about their vote ( and to this day it isn't ) secret.
http://www.jrotc.org/us_constution.htm

[paigeoliver]

I can tell you EXACTLY why democrats are always overstated in the exit polls.

It is the general prevailing attitudes of the party members.

The same reason why you would see more Kerry signs, and bumper stickers, and why EVERYONE online (except for a few EVIL BIGOTS), supported Kerry, yet he still lost hard.

Republican voters (largely) just quietly vote Republican, and are not nearly as evangelical about it as democrats are. There is no "Look at us, we are legitimate, really we are".

The Democratic party just isn't going to win anything until it stops trying to be all things to all people. Their numbers would be abbysmal if it wasn't for the almost 100 percent minority support (which is more welfare based than race based anyway). Of course you can say the same thing about the Republican party and the Christians, the difference is that the Republican party doesn't try to be all things to all people like the democrats do.

[iwillfearnoevil]

Republican voters (largely) just quietly vote Republican, and are not nearly as evangelical about it as democrats are. There is no "Look at us, we are legitimate, really we are".

keyed up cars and other destroyed private property chased a lot of bush signs away this election. so much for tolerance on the left.

[RacerX]

You don't have to be a citizen to get a Social Security Card.  You only have to be in the country legally.

And that's for honest people.  I could get a social security card right now by getting the birth certificate of a male baby that died roughly 35 years ago and claiming that I'm him.

[Mameotron]

For $75.00 I can "obtain" a completely legitimate social security card.

 

[mr.Curmudgeon]

Summary nutshell: There was a heavier response from Kerry supporters than Bush supporters, skewing the data, and there was not a problem with the vote tabulation.

If you're interested, here's a gentlemen that does a pretty good breakdown of the numbers as he attempts to explain why that don't seem to make sense. It's from an "evil Libruuul" blog, but the piece is mostly analytical and I can't imagine you'll find a dissection of the numbers on a conservative site anytime soon.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/1/20/141720/778

The gist of the report is that the discrepancy between the exit polls, showing a healthy lead for Kerry on election night and the actual results of a narrow Kerry loss was caused by "differential non-response" (DNR). That is, presumptively, Bush voters were more likely than Kerry voters to refuse to be interviewed by an exit pollster.

However, as I read it, this is a very unsatisfying conclusion, as there is no direct evidence presented in the report that DNR leaned one way or the other. Rather, when the measured discrepancy between the Kerry poll and actual margins, called "within precinct error" (WPE) could not be explained by any other means, DNR was simply the default explanation.

...

"So to my mind we are still left with the basic, unexplained result, that for some reason the exit polls in heavily-Bush precincts had large errors."


mrC

[mr.Curmudgeon]

This battle seems far from over.

The fight re: exit poll discrepancies is really heating up. Ohio Sectretary of State Kenneth Blackwell (R) and Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro (R) have decided to run with this Exit Poll report and use it in an attempt to "sanction" the lawyers who originally filed a FOIA request for the polling data from Ohio.

Rep. John Conyers has responded by writing a letter to the Ohio Attorney General to rebuke him and implies that the AG is filing the motion, solely to punish those looking for answers.

Rep.John Conyers also wrote the exit pollsters, Edison/Mitofsky.

I hope they have nothing to hide in Ohio, otherwise Blackwell and Petro have made a really dumb move.

mrC

[iwillfearnoevil]

yawn. some guy paid off by dean for his support blogs the election is fixed. get a new m.o. already. olbermann (shoulda stuck to sports old man) is consistently spouting bogus numbers. one of many sites refuting these false claims:
http://yalefreepress.blogspot.com/2004/11/keith-obermann-wheres-your-tin-foil.html

if there was any fraud in this election, it's way more likely to be in wisconsin and obviously pennsylvania. of course, you can make up all the half truths you want and live in candy land.

[DrewKaree]

if there was any fraud in this election, it's way more likely to be in wisconsin and obviously pennsylvania. of course, you can make up all the half truths you want and live in candy land.

I can't exactly call you prescient, this was highly anticipated before the election, and they are finding this to be highly probable after the election.  Being a resident of Wisconsin and seeing the unwillingness of the local media until a citizen with a camcorder was spotted (after which they "leapt" into action  ) in the last election to report the efforts of an out-of-town "activist", things were ESPECIALLY heightened during this election.

Not with the print and television media, mind you.....here's a link to one of only two men saying ANYTHING regarding potential voting problems, and after the election, commenting on potential problems that were in line with the problems they brought up BEFORE the election.  Here's his commentary....the link, and in case it's no longer up afterwards, I quote him.

http://www.gmtoday.com/milwaukeetoday/editorials/belling.asp

Thanks to Republican State Rep. Jeff Stone

[iwillfearnoevil]

This currently isn't a "Let's count every vote" search.

[saint]

Hey Jened - I'd like to research your perspective further. Can you point me to some of your sources?  I'm particularly interested in the dead democrats voting in Washington.

This currently isn't a "Let's count every vote" search.  This is currently a "Let's count every vote that might possibly flip this state" search.

yep. just like in 2000 when gore wanted to count every vote that was in a county he won and throw away military ballots. or how about the fraud in washington this year where the dead democrats gave a democrat the victory. yeah count every vote for a democrat even fraudulent ones and disallow as many republican votes as they can. what a bunch of hypocrites. no wonder they keep losing more and more control of the us government every election.

[iwillfearnoevil]

Hey Jened - I'd like to research your perspective further. Can you point me to some of your sources?

[saint]

Sounds a right mess. I read the articles. I didn't see where the deceased voters were shown to have voted Democratic.

I think our entire voting system needs serious attention. We're supposed to be a shining bastion of democracy but we repeatedly can't trust our voting to be untainted.

I do want to ask something however -- what's the difference between the people questioning the results in Ohio and Florida, and the people questioning the results in the Washington governor's race?

--- saint

Hey Jened - I'd like to research your perspective further. Can you point me to some of your sources?  I'm particularly interested in the dead democrats voting in Washington.

no prob. i'm surprised how little publictly this race has garnered nationwide as there are lots of suspicious things going on. here's an old article:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/206969_dead07.html

there are other counties with a higher occurrance. then there's the problem with doing a hand recount.

also found this interesting quote from a recount worker:
"If you are wondering about the accuracy of the hand count (in the Washington governor's race), think for a minute about what we are doing

[iwillfearnoevil]

I do want to ask something however -- what's the difference between the people questioning the results in Ohio and Florida, and the people questioning the results in the Washington governor's race?

--- saint

it is how you question it. most of the ohio/florida stuff is all conspiracy theory and half truths. throwing around a truth like kerry lost county x in ohio, but a dem judge won it. but not revealing the judge was a long time incumbant and judges run with no party affiliation there. name recognition is _huge_ in local elections. also by making assumptions and ignoring the results in '96 and '00 in other counties.

[mr.Curmudgeon]

it is how you question it.

Or whether it's Democracts questioning it or Republicans...if you wanted to be more honest.

[DrewKaree]

Sounds a right mess. I read the articles. I didn't see where the deceased voters were shown to have voted Democratic.

I think our entire voting system needs serious attention. We're supposed to be a shining bastion of democracy but we repeatedly can't trust our voting to be untainted.

As a matter of fact, the only name/party mentioned point to a fraudulent ballot for the Republican party. 

From what I understand, they are working on a more formal process designed to make it easier to add the newly registered, remove the dead, those who moved, and double check the process.  It is supposed to be in place for Wisconsin by next year, but it doesn't address other more glaring problems with the system which the "more formal problem" won't detect.

I do want to ask something however -- what's the difference between the people questioning the results in Ohio and Florida, and the people questioning the results in the Washington governor's race?

If the uproar, time, money, and effort thrown into Ohio and Florida can be shown to be equal to these other areas, no difference.  The difference is that the effort isn't equal.  The difference for ME is that in Wisconsin, where these things are shown as well, I would bet an entire year's salary (although you can't get a whole lot anymore with $30) that I am the reason you heard of this at all.  There are people up in arms over Ohio, but Wisconsin, which is firmly in Kerry's column, is ignored, with similar problems.

Either move for recounts STATEwide, or not at all.  Picking and choosing which (we're not even talking the STATE, for crying out loud!) precincts and counties to recount is to attempt to do that which was claimed of Bush - to "steal" an election.

If it is determined that foul play happened (which it did, by both parties) recount the entire nation, state by state.  Also, those who wish to cry foul in certain precincts and counties would have credibility in their argument if they would give some solutions to attempt in making our voting process harder to cheat in the registration process.

This state-by-state effort to "make their elections more foolproof" is crap.  Hammer this out at the federal level and have each and every state utilize the same format for voting.  That'd also open up the manufacturing of the equipment to a set standard.  We'd hear FAR less of these "this guy put his thumb over the optical sensor and gave xx votes to           . 

I wholeheartedly agree with you that our entire voting system needs attention.  I'd go with an overhaul, as well.

[iwillfearnoevil]

right, because past history has proven the democrats more likely to cheat and use dirty tactics during elections. sorry if the truth hurts.

[mr.Curmudgeon]

right, because past history has proven the democrats more likely to cheat and use dirty tactics during elections. sorry if the truth hurts.

So that makes Republicans saints? Gimme a break. Both parties need to be policed by an informed/aware public and a independent press...neither of which seems to exist anymore.

Two wrongs don't make a right.

[DrewKaree]

So that makes Republicans saints? Gimme a break. Both parties need to be policed by an informed/aware public and a independent press...neither of which seems to exist anymore.

On this, we agree.   

Two wrongs don't make a right

But three rights make a left! 

[iwillfearnoevil]

Both parties need to be policed by an informed/aware public and a independent press...neither of which seems to exist anymore.

or just read from a variety of sources and you'll be well covered if you listen and don't prefer to be ignorant.

fresh example from today's news:
Democratic activists charged in vandalism to GOP vehicles...
http://www.jsonline.com/news/metro/jan05/295825.asp?format=print

these low-life scums slashed tires on 25 cars

you really can't find half as many examples of republicans who are willing to cheat and do anything to get into office as dems.

[mr.Curmudgeon]

you really can't find half as many examples of republicans who are willing to cheat and do anything to get into office as dems.

jened, your extremist attitude isn't winning any arguments. I should know, I go off from time to time myself. Don't say you haven't been warned. I imagine most people will just start ignoring you if you can't formulate a valid argument without resorting to half-baked analogies and pointless stereo-typing.

Give it a rest already. These 25 "low-life scum" don't speak for anyone but themselves. They don't represent the democrats ideology any more than say, this guy:



...represents Republicans. Right?

[DrewKaree]

Give it a rest already. These 25 "low-life scum" don't speak for anyone but themselves. They don't represent the democrats ideology any more than say, this guy...represents Republicans. Right?

Just pointing out that it's not 25 "scums", it's just a few, with two specific examples. 

The two specific examples don't represent democratic ideology other than what they've gleaned and been taught from their parents.

BTW, one of them happens to be the son of our newly-elected Congress woman, Gwendolyn Moore.  One of the other happens to be the son of the former interim Mayor Marvin Pratt, whose wife made it a point to go on record as saying the reason her husband was given the boot was because the city is filled with racists and Republicans out to slander her husband's good name just because he found it necessary to steal tens of thousands of dollars and misuse his campaign fund for his own personal use and gain. 

While they are individuals, it probably didn't help that the people responsible for teaching them right from wrong (as in this case, what was clearly wrong) haven't had the guts to say word one that what their children did is criminally reprehensible.  In fact, our "esteemed" Congress woman, Ms Moore, had the gall to come out the day charges were filed to proselytize about how the parties need to come together, put aside the animosity, work with one another, blah blah blah.....while her kid worked to do the exact opposite on election night here. 

Oddly enough, she was part of the district where tens of thousands of ballots were in question before the election, and evidence is calling into question exactly the problems brought up before the election.

That ideology is now part of the U.S. Congress, whereas Mr God-hates----daisies--- is some kook holding up signs on a street corner or putting up his nutjob website for others to happen upon. 

[iwillfearnoevil]

poof
that is your argument disintegrating by trying to compare a sign (protected by 1st amendment - not that i agree with that speech) against vandalism and destruction of property with the goal of not allowing people who disagree with you to vote. you wouldn't also be one of those American haters rooting for Zarqawi to blow up Iraqi citizens wanting to vote next week, now are you?

[DrewKaree]

Or whether it's Democracts questioning it or Republicans...if you wanted to be more honest.

Well, here's an example of a lady who, prior to this election, carped and whined about voters in the inner city in Milwaukee being disenfranchised, but is mysteriously mum about her 32 year old kid stopping, flat out stopping, the ability of the Republican party to assisst voters in getting to the polls for - at the MINIMUM - FIVE HOURS on election day

Precincts opened up in that area at 6:30 A.M. and tires couldn't be gotten to the site until 11:00, and cars didn't start rolling out of there until 1:00.

Is that not just as long as the "long lines" and "eternal waiting to vote" spoken of as voter disenfranchisement?  The Congress woman was on television several times, held two PRESS CONFERENCES speaking out on this, and yet, when a member of her family is linked to this, NOTHING is said about this. 

Sounds kinda like she wants to enjoy her inauguration and not be bothered by the war in Milwaukee.

Oh, and so you can rest easy, our limp-wristed Sally of a D.A. in Milwaukee will ensure that at best, these "boys" (21-38, and they're "boys", yet we try children as adults in murder cases....talk about ambiguous language) will have some inane "community service" as a "punishment"

[Dexter]

you wouldn't also be one of those American haters rooting for Zarqawi to blow up Iraqi citizens wanting to vote next week, now are you?

Yep, theres nothing like having your country invaded, friends and families slaughtered and oil stolen to turn you into an 'american hater' LOL!

What really makes me laugh is the illusion of prewar Iraq filled with american hating terrorists detesting your freedoms, instead of the truth which was a country filled with hungry people who just wanted to feed their families.

As long as I live I'll never for get that Iraqi man whose house was levelled by a US bombing shouting at the camera "I don't blame americans, americans are good people, it is bush, he is the biggest criminal". We can all learn a lesson from this man.

[iwillfearnoevil]

Yep, theres nothing like having your country invaded, friends and families slaughtered and oil stolen to turn you into an 'american hater' LOL!

nice to see you've taken up the position of terrorists like Zarqawi and finally dropped the facade of caring about America! know thy enemy!

[mr.Curmudgeon]

nice to see you've taken up the position of terrorists like Zarqawi and finally dropped the facade of caring about America! know thy enemy!

I hate America too! Don't forget me jened...it'll make it that much easier for you to ignore opposing viewpoints. It's not childish at all, in fact, it's a completely valid debate tactic, yup. It's reaaaaally the sign of a superior intellect, no matter what those bullies in Special Ed tell you. Everyone is either "with you are against you" right? Isn't that what Dear Leader said? Yeaaaaaaaah!

Excuse me, I'll be back in a bit...just finished wiping my arse with an American flag and now I have to go burn it. Allah Ackbar!!!! ALLAH ACKBAR!!!!!

mrC

[DrewKaree]

I hate America too! Don't forget me jened...it'll make it that much easier for you to ignore opposing viewpoints. It's not childish at all, in fact, it's a completely valid debate tactic, yup. It's reaaaaally the sign of a superior intellect, no matter what those bullies in Special Ed tell you. Everyone is either "with you are against you" right? Isn't that what Dear Leader said? Yeaaaaaaaah!

Excuse me, I'll be back in a bit...just finished wiping my arse with an American flag and now I have to go burn it. Allah Ackbar!!!! ALLAH ACKBAR!!!!!

mrC

Always looking for attention, aren't ya, C?    Actually, after your first usage of the flag, the second step WOULD be the proper way to treat it....being as its condition would mean it should be retired from service.  Perhaps you could just lay it in front of the entrance to the house and use it as a doormat?

And to think, you prolly never thought you'd look back wistfully at the times you shared with TA Pilot 

[mr.Curmudgeon]

Always looking for attention, aren't ya, C?  Wink

Who, me?

And to think, you prolly never thought you'd look back wistfully at the times you shared with TA Pilot

No kidding. Oh, and don't mention the name that cannot be mentioned. The board isn't yet cleansed...

P.S. Thanks for the tip on the flag...I've been looking for other uses.