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Author Topic: HD prices going up fast  (Read 11011 times)

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BobA

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HD prices going up fast
« on: November 10, 2011, 07:12:06 pm »
Prices on HDs seem to be skyrocketing.   I used to be able to get a 3.5 inch 500 GB sata HD for 45 dollars and now they want 70 to 90 dollars.   Hang on this is going to hurt.


vorghagen

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2011, 07:16:35 pm »
With several HDD plants being shut down due to the floods in and around Bangkok, HDD supplies will be low and prices will be high across the board. A few I was looking at last month have gone from $129 to $229. Retailers are also putting a 2 per customer limit on many drives.
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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2011, 08:10:32 pm »
Found a cheap source for HDDs for now.   Alot of retailers have not updated the prices of their USB attached drives so you can still get a 2 TB in an external enclosure for 110.   750 GB 2.5 inch in an external enclosure for 99.   Don't know if this will last but I think I will pick up a few before the price increase catches up.  In the US you still have black friday but who knows where prices will be by then.  ??? ???

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2011, 08:15:40 pm »
I remember like 10 years ago when there was a memory shortage I bought a bunch of 128 Dimms and made a very good profit.

I have 3x2TB drives just sitting here and I know I can make 30% profit off them right now.
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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2011, 09:43:08 pm »
Doesn't look like Amazon has raised all their prices yet.  I just checked the 1.5 TB drive I purchased a year ago is still the same price.  Although I would have thought it would have come down some in a year's time.

EDIT -
Nevermind that post.  I didn't notice that the drive was out of stock the first time.  I bought a 1.5 TB drive last year for $79.  The same drive in 1TB size is now $139 on Amazon's site.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2011, 09:45:58 pm by wp34 »

BobA

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2011, 10:39:56 pm »

crashwg

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2011, 12:09:13 am »
Hopefully prices come down Q2 2012 or sooner since I plan on upgrading to an HDTV and I'll surely be getting more HD content.

As for my experience, I purchased this drive for $99.99 on 1/29/2010 then again on 7/14/2011 for $84.99 and now it's $219.99!
« Last Edit: November 11, 2011, 10:14:55 pm by crashwg »
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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2011, 09:25:13 am »
Holy crap.  $227 for a WD Caviar Black 1Tb.  I remember buying a couple of those for like $80 a piece.

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2011, 10:25:52 am »
Was at Microcenter the other day and they have a sign posted limiting customers to two drives per person. But I didn't notice any ridiculous price increase with them just yet.

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2011, 11:36:48 am »
I picked up a drive for work at Microcenter and they were up a bit. It was $85 for a 500gb. I know I used to get 1tb for that price a couple months ago. It wasn't WAY out of line but they are up for sure.

Just checked....I bought a WD Black 1.0 TB last October for $79 on newegg and now they are $229!

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« Last Edit: November 11, 2011, 11:41:17 am by J_K_M_A_N »

BobA

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2011, 10:14:59 am »
Hard drive price tracker.   

Link

BadMouth

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2011, 10:27:04 am »
Holy crap.  $227 for a WD Caviar Black 1Tb.  I remember buying a couple of those for like $80 a piece.

Got one from staples last week for $89.   ;D
Somehow they missed that model when doing their price hikes.

I would have preferred a 1.5TB, but the prices were already jacked up on those.

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2011, 11:34:46 am »
I'm not currently looking for a HDD but I check SlickDeals fairly often and I see a lot of externals going for pre-flood prices.  If anyone's in the market for a HDD I'd check there, you can always take the bare drive out of the enclosure.
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SNAAKE

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2011, 03:11:55 pm »

HaRuMaN

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2011, 03:21:30 pm »

SNAAKE

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2011, 03:23:00 pm »
^ but thats sata2..isnt that half the speed? kinda defeats the purpose of buying a fast drive. my board does support sata3 drives.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2011, 03:24:33 pm by SNAAKE »

HaRuMaN

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2011, 03:24:39 pm »
^ but thats sata2..isnt that half the speed? kinda defeats the purpose of having of buying a SSD drive. my board does support sata3 drives.

Ahh missed the SATA3.  If your mobo supports it, def go for the 3

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2011, 04:54:06 am »
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820147502
ended up ordering this one. $95 is great for that drive and reviews are good too. and I wont have to buy a mounting kit :applaud:

SNAAKE

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2011, 11:58:05 pm »
yeah so on the box it says 520/mb read and I am only getting like 350ish. is this normal ???

170mb/sec difference is kinda high. doesnt really matter. its still pretty fast. just curious. attached random benchmark pic. my computer wont boot if I set the drive configuration to "ACHI".

« Last Edit: November 29, 2011, 12:00:28 am by SNAAKE »

HaRuMaN

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2011, 08:50:22 am »
I believe the 520 is an absolute maximum.  Doubtful anyone will ever get that fast.

SNAAKE

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #20 on: November 29, 2011, 12:04:46 pm »
got it thx :burgerking:

any idea what "pciide - BAD" means?

HaRuMaN

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2011, 12:09:17 pm »
Did you switch your motherboard controller to AHCI mode?

SNAAKE

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #22 on: November 29, 2011, 11:42:33 pm »
computer wont start if I switch to AHCI.

tired without other drives but no luck. not really problem. everything is working fine. I was just wondering what it means.

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2011, 12:34:14 am »
got it thx :burgerking:

any idea what "pciide - BAD" means?

Hey SNAAKE,

The "pciide - BAD" bit means you are NOT in AHCI.  Not that anything is wrong. 

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2011, 01:54:28 am »
SNAAKE, google up how to slip-stream SATA controller (AHCI) drivers into your windows installation. It'll typically require a fresh installation of Windows. You may get by with just adding the drivers into your windows installation, and then switching to AHCI mode in your BIOS, but I doubt it. For slip-streaming drivers, you'll need N-Lite, an extracted ISO of your windows disc, and text-mode drivers for your SATA controller.

Basically, when your SATA card is running in legacy mode (ATA), you can expect the speeds to be negotiable. From the couple times I've "bench marked", in windows system profiler I typically see between .5 and 1.0 performance difference on Primary Hard Disk.

Here's a pictorial of the process I suck at describing. It was the first thing that came up in google, but after a quick skim, it looks to be accurate.
http://komku.blogspot.com/2007/11/integrate-driver-into-windows.html

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #25 on: December 03, 2011, 08:40:50 am »

It's a bit sad that thousands of peoples lives have been disrupted, and people killed, but all we worry is that HD prices have gone up...


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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #26 on: December 03, 2011, 08:37:36 pm »
I think this is the right time to start phasing out magnetic hard drives and start using SSDs.

 
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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #27 on: December 04, 2011, 06:52:53 am »
I think this is the right time to start phasing out magnetic hard drives and start using SSDs.

 

1) aren't SSD's much more expensive than hard drives?

2) Wouldn't they make those in Thailand too?

As an aside, do SSD's have the same limited life span that other memory does, like in USB memory? That is, whether you use it or not, it has a lifespan? If it does, then I'd still prefer a hard drive, since those things last a very long time if not used. My backup is on a portable hard drive that is only used when plugged in to back up for instance. That should last magnitudes longer than my computer...
« Last Edit: December 04, 2011, 07:23:17 am by danny_galaga »


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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #28 on: December 04, 2011, 09:20:36 am »
1) aren't SSD's much more expensive than hard drives?

Yes, even at current spinning metal drive prices, SSDs are still ~5x more expensive per GB.  It varies widely with the quality of the SSD.  There's not a ton of price variability in the HDD land, but there is with SSDs.  The technology on SSDs isn't as mature, so there's still a lot more variability in component quality and therefore price (and performance and, to some degree, reliability).

2) Wouldn't they make those in Thailand too?

Maybe, but there's not a huge reason to do so.  Most of the chips come from Japan, Korea, the US (believe it or not, one of the biggest makers of high end flash memory is in the US), and some from Taiwan.  I'd expect support components (PCBs, casings, etc.) to come from and final assembly to happen in China, Taiwan, or Singapore.  Maybe some in Thailand, but there's not a particularly compelling reason to do it that way unlike with HDDs as many many components of HDDs are actually made in Thailand.

As an aside, do SSD's have the same limited life span that other memory does, like in USB memory? That is, whether you use it or not, it has a lifespan? If it does, then I'd still prefer a hard drive, since those things last a very long time if not used. My backup is on a portable hard drive that is only used when plugged in to back up for instance. That should last magnitudes longer than my computer...

Yes.  All flash memory has erase cycle limitations.  The endurance has been steadily going DOWN as chip geometries have gotten smaller to increase density.  Some new chips are rated for as few as 1000 erase cycles (1 million used to be common).  HOWEVER, with proper wear leveling, given the size of modern SSDs and depending on how much spare space they reserve, you can easily make this something of a non-issue.  Note that cheap SSDs and USB flash drives often have little or no hidden reserve, while expensive "enterprise" grade ones usually have lot (often as much spare as active).

As an example, if you completely re-write an entire 250GB drive daily (very, very unlikely), then even with no reserve space, you get almost 3 years lifespan out of it.  A more typical usage pattern would swap out an average of maybe 20-40GB/day at most.  That would give you a lifespan of about 17 years (at 40GB, double it for 20GB/day) if you can spread the writes out evenly (i.e. the drive has reserve and/or is not entirely full); I think that particular SSD will be totally obsolete by then, and most HDDs would be dead, too.  Adding reserve (hidden) space to do wear leveling improves things greatly.  1000 cycles is also something of a minimum spec; most devices will exceed that by 2-3x at room temp.  Larger geometry and single level devices are often spec'd for 10000 cycles or more.  Even when you do wear it out, it would be possible to essentially chuck the drive into read-only mode; you wouldn't be able to change anything (and the OS may crash as a result), but full data recovery would be easily possible, but see below.

By far the bigger concern seems to be buggy firmware.  While an SSD should generally fail gradually and cleanly as you run out of usable erase cycles, they often fail catastrophically and without warning due to some firmware bug that causes massive corruption, often at a level below where the OS interacts with it, rendering it totally useless and causing total data loss.  This isn't a fundamental problem with the technology, but it seems sadly common.  The "enterprise" grade don't seem to do this nearly as much (and they use higher endurance flash, to boot), presumably due to better QA of the firmware, but I doubt you want to pay $10k for your SSD...

The firmware bugs really irk me.  The underlying flash technology is well understood at this point.  The makers just need to QA their damned controller firmware better.  I still use spinning metal drives, though mostly for cost reasons.  I'd love to put a 320-500GB SSD in my laptop; it's well backed up, anyway, and I could use the performance when running my CAD software and large compiles.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2011, 09:22:12 am by MonMotha »

Blanka

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #29 on: December 04, 2011, 09:53:09 am »
Just wait till January. Things will be much more relaxed by then.

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #30 on: December 04, 2011, 12:16:13 pm »
As an aside, do SSD's have the same limited life span that other memory does, like in USB memory? That is, whether you use it or not, it has a lifespan? If it does, then I'd still prefer a hard drive, since those things last a very long time if not used. My backup is on a portable hard drive that is only used when plugged in to back up for instance. That should last magnitudes longer than my computer...

I just noticed that you may have been thinking of a different phenomenon with flash...

All flash has a retention time.  At room temp, it's typically spec'd as 10 years minimum and often manages more like 50-100+ years (obviously this is based on accelerated aging tests, but I do have 10+ year old flash chips that have retained their data just fine).  Higher temp drastically reduces the retention time.  70C may bring it much closer to that 10 years or even bring it a little under, but then again 70C is darned hot.  You can buy 85C rated devices, but you won't find them in consumer electronics.

However, this is just the time it'll retain data.  If you're concerned with "use it or lose it", you can always erase it and write new data, assuming the translation controller in your device can handle that phenomenon (YMMV).  You may lose data after dozens of years, though.  Flash may not be the best medium for archiving data, but archiving computer data has always been a tricky proposition for several reasons (media retention, interface standards, media formats, file formats, etc.).

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #31 on: December 04, 2011, 01:54:32 pm »
Whoa, usually office depot is way over priced. :o

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #32 on: December 05, 2011, 04:55:47 am »
As an aside, do SSD's have the same limited life span that other memory does, like in USB memory? That is, whether you use it or not, it has a lifespan? If it does, then I'd still prefer a hard drive, since those things last a very long time if not used. My backup is on a portable hard drive that is only used when plugged in to back up for instance. That should last magnitudes longer than my computer...

I just noticed that you may have been thinking of a different phenomenon with flash...

All flash has a retention time.  At room temp, it's typically spec'd as 10 years minimum and often manages more like 50-100+ years (obviously this is based on accelerated aging tests, but I do have 10+ year old flash chips that have retained their data just fine).  Higher temp drastically reduces the retention time.  70C may bring it much closer to that 10 years or even bring it a little under, but then again 70C is darned hot.  You can buy 85C rated devices, but you won't find them in consumer electronics.

However, this is just the time it'll retain data.  If you're concerned with "use it or lose it", you can always erase it and write new data, assuming the translation controller in your device can handle that phenomenon (YMMV).  You may lose data after dozens of years, though.  Flash may not be the best medium for archiving data, but archiving computer data has always been a tricky proposition for several reasons (media retention, interface standards, media formats, file formats, etc.).

That's more what I was thinking of. Temperature looks to be a biggie. I shoulda realised. I used to live in the tropics, and my Sony camera memory only lasted maybe 5 years, some of that time was when I moved to a sub-tropical climate. Same with my USB thumb drive. So I went from 35C most of the year, to a climate that varied a bit more, from say 12C to 30C, with higher summer time spikes (but only say a week here and there at 38C).

Oh, hang on. Retention time is what I meant, but my camera memory was being re-written often enough. So I guess that just ran out of cycles and reserve. Over time it could hold less and less pics.

But still, for hard drives I guess I'll stick with what I know for now (",)


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Nephasth

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #33 on: December 05, 2011, 09:58:28 am »
Check the thread I linked...

Oh I did. Problem is, here in BFE, there is only one Office Depot in a 50 mile radius and it's usually slim pickings for anything there. I also entered that product code into officedepot.com, and it comes up as $164.99. Great little score.

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #34 on: December 05, 2011, 10:34:01 pm »
That's more what I was thinking of. Temperature looks to be a biggie. I shoulda realised. I used to live in the tropics, and my Sony camera memory only lasted maybe 5 years, some of that time was when I moved to a sub-tropical climate. Same with my USB thumb drive. So I went from 35C most of the year, to a climate that varied a bit more, from say 12C to 30C, with higher summer time spikes (but only say a week here and there at 38C).

I talked to a TI rep about a year ago who was talking about certifying some of their MSP430 flash microcontrollers in fire fighting applications.  The spec was 125C.  Apparently everything was fine, but they could only guarantee the integrity of the flash for about 30 minutes.  Apparently temperature is a big deal when it comes to flash retention (also consider that 125C is darned hot).

One thing to consider when thinking about memory card/USB flash drive longevity: do you ever leave them in your car in the summer?  It can get surprisingly hot in a car.  It's possible to exceed the 70C that most consumer-grade components are spec'd for (note: full assemblies often spec'd lower, especially when operating).

I've also had major issues with dodgy flash media.  It appears to be a similar problem to the firmware glitches I mentioned above.  Sudden, catastrophic failure way before one would expect from a simple erase cycle limitation.  In every case I can think of, the failed devices were no-name cheapies.  I don't think I've ever lost a Sandisk card, for example, but I've had a couple "Super Happy Quality Media" cards die on me.

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #35 on: December 06, 2011, 08:33:51 am »
Looks like things are improving but the price chart shows that we are really being hosed by retailers.  Price increases are nowhere near what the resellers are charging.  :( :(

HD factories are comming back

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #36 on: December 07, 2011, 07:22:10 pm »
Might be a nice time to consider a SSD.
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SNAAKE

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #37 on: December 07, 2011, 07:24:26 pm »
duude!! SSDs are too pro. my computer is so fast now. all programs launch instantly and multitasking is a breeze. window7 boots in like 20 seconds.. :dizzy:
« Last Edit: December 07, 2011, 07:26:54 pm by SNAAKE »

hypernova

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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #38 on: December 07, 2011, 07:28:56 pm »
Forgot to look at the rest of the posts.  Someone already suggested the time to check SSDs.

However, I'm noticing there may be a slight issue with their longevity.  Also noticing brands that I'm not familiar with.  OCZ seems to be a major player in the market, yet never heard of them, while Intel has some products (don't recall them having any HDDs, at least not in retail).

Any experience on here with SSDs?  What brands have you heard good/bad about?

What size is recommended?  Enough for a OS and whatever large programs you frequently use?
« Last Edit: December 07, 2011, 07:32:44 pm by hypernova »
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Re: HD prices going up fast
« Reply #39 on: December 07, 2011, 07:59:46 pm »
60/64gb recommend for average users.

crucial M4s are very popular and got good reviews from every site and newegg too.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820148447 on sale 105

personally I bought this one after watching random reviews online and it was on sale.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820147133
« Last Edit: December 07, 2011, 08:16:27 pm by SNAAKE »