Responding to responses.
#1. Yes the blueray players can be combo drives, that is a given, but hddvd players don't need two lasers to play dvds as it is an expasion of the format. In other words, when you buy a blueray combo drive, you pay not only for the expensive blue laser, but the traditional red one as well. On top of that combo drives are expensive to begin with. So I'll repeat what I said in more clearer terms.... stand alone hddvd players are backwards compatable, while blueray players are not.
#2. Sony did not make cd or dvd formats, nor did they "help" to make them. I'm not talking about what they USED, I'm talking about what they MADE. Any format that sony designs is doomed to failure. I don't know why, maybe they are cursed, but they've never made a successful, universal format. Yes schmokes as crazy as it sounds, the fact that sony made it could doom the format. It has nothing to do with my dislike of sony though, they just tend to produce bad technology, or technology that isn't cost-effective ect.... At least when it comes to storage formats, they make great televisions.
#3. DRM is a non issue.. if anything the format with the weaker drm is going to be the most popular.
#4. pointdablame you just ranted off without reading anything I said. I already stated that I expected porn to arrive on the blueray player, just to a lesser degree. Some other points you misintrepreted too, but they aren't major enough to bring up. And no I didn't come out acting like I know which one is going to win, I said right in my post that a curve ball could come around and change the tide, BUT as is it's all hddvd.
#5. Storage capacity is a non issue at least when you are talking about dual/quad layer discs. Yes I heard about the quad blue ray player too, I also heard it costs 2k atm. Regardless hddvd can do multi-layer discs as well.... any format based on the compact disc can. Theoretically hddvd can't go beyond around 60 gb, but dvd's weren't supposed to go over 4 gigs either so I'm not sure how accurate those numbers are. Regardless, I'm not sure if blueray can get a leg in on the computer market, at least not yet because m$ is kinda stone walling them. There seems to be some unknown reason that keeps m$ from certifiying buleray player drivers. Again it's that m$ factor I talked about. Nobody ever said they play fair.
#6. Blueray is not out-selling hddvd, I'm not sure where you got that info. If you got it from a sony fansite remember that they tend to skew things. Remember there are currently more blueray titles than hddvd, so if you look at sheer sales blueray is probably going to be on top simply because there are so few films released in either format atm that an early adopter is going to snatch up as many discs for their player as they can. Also you have to be careful to look at only US sales. Japan will support any format sony spews out... at least initially.
#7. I know this sounds insaine but how many movie companies support a format, at least this early on doesn't matter at all. When vhs vs betamax was going on, initially betamax had more backers. Once both players were widely available though, it became apparent that the consumer wanted vhs and they all quickly jumped ship. I intentionally didn't mention studio support in my reply for that reason.
#8. I had no doubt that the ps3 effected blueray disc sales because it is pretty much the only hi def player out there atm. And certainly you aren't going to be playing any games on the thing as there is only one that is playable.
Now that ps3 sales are at a halt though, this will end up being a short lived boost, unless sony somehow turns around the ps3 and saves it.
#9. I share everyone's indifference to a degree. I even stated in my reply that there is a decent chance neither format wins because we get all of our content digitally. However I need to point out that schmokes's point about dvd vs hd content makes absolutely no sense. Dvd's are written at a resolution of 720x480, which IS sd broadcast quality. If you have digital cable or satellite (and hopefully everyone does at this point) then the digital channels should look identical to your dvds. Well that is assuming you aen't dumb enough to use the coaxial output on your cable box and use component or svid instead. (Most coaxial signals are interlaced.) I appreciate your enthuasim man, but you really need to understand the formats if you are going to make a valid argument. I see your point, but it should be noted that if you have a hi def set and cable.... even if you aren't getting hd channels you are seeing things at 480p. Don't get confused... 480p is 720x480(ntsc non interlaced)... 720p is 1280x720 and the hi def formats are at 1080p, which is 1920 x 1080, which is a buttload beyond the puny 480p. Yes if your tv is less than 30 inches then you won't see a difference, but you sure will on a larger set. Heck on a lcd tv a standard def signal, even a dvd is pretty much unwatchable without some upconversion. With upconversion though, a dvd is prefectly presentable and crisp, it just lacks detail. I threw some 720p imax films on my modded xbox the other day (it can't handle 1080) and it blew me away. I can only imagine how good true hd would look.
So wrapping things up, except for the things I corrected good points all around. And I agree most likely neither will be adopted. Myself I'm in no hurry, that is not until I'm offered more films than the latest box-office flop, 20 year old films that couldn't possibly have good enough special effects to merit such a hi transfer and "gems" that were born for hddvd like Rick Bobby. All I was saying is IF there is to be a winner it'll be hddvd.