Tried that suite of resolutions again, no luck. Still stretching. I also count more like ~50 per inch. That would basically be spot on to 1024x768.
Went back and stared at that some more... I'm convinced now, more than ever, that it really is 1024x768. I think it was tricking my eyes at 1600x1200 by doing some pretty good subpixel rendering. Anything with 768 vertical has perfectly even lines. I also forgot to turn off autostretch in my prior testing... with it off, x768 generates perfectly even scanlines at integer scale. Nothing else has.
Interestingly, however, that still generates some slight uneven stretching on the x axis. Not really noticeable outside of a test pattern/ArcadeOSD, but it's there. That may come from the apparent mismatch between the controller firmware (what it thinks the AR/res are) and the actual panel resolution.
I think it's time for me to come to peace with the fact that it is, almost certainly, merely a 1024x768 panel (or it certainly only has 768 vertical lines and some oddball X resolution). That keeps lines even for HLSL, even though it (of course) means a lot less resolution than desired to do a really good simulation. I may fiddle with creating some x768 super resolutions for it next to see how that looks, since the sub-pixel rendering seems good.