So I've been building an ultralight

[Zebidee]

Have I mentioned the right hand toggle switch?

I do have a vague memory about chem trails, or was it a dream? Am too old to know the difference.

One would assume the "chem" tanks are loaded with something socially responsible like mustard gas.

[danny_galaga]

Of course! What could be more natural than mustard 😀

[danny_galaga]

I'm making a little duct for the cowl.I wanted to attach some pics but they failed a 'security check'.

Rest assured they were the most amazing pictures ever taken 

[Zebidee]

Don't be this guy - maiden flight of his home-made light plane:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-05/bunbury-airport-plane-crash-pilot-dies-in-hospital/103545882

[danny_galaga]

Yes..very sad. For some reason he was trying to fly it in some pretty ordinary conditions. First flights- dead calm or nothing. There was a bit of a kerfuffle on a flying forum I'm on. This crash was being discussed and somehow someone had latched onto a name and pretty soon it was assumed he was the deceased. The guy, joined up just to say the reports of his death were greatly exaggerated.

[danny_galaga]

Great, I've taken so long to build it, the factory has gone bust.

[pbj]

There’s your sign.

Also, watch the Simon Riggs crash footage.  The little rescue parachute deploying after his plane has exploded will give you great insight to the indifference of the universe.

[danny_galaga]

There’s your sign.

Also, watch the Simon Riggs crash footage.  The little rescue parachute deploying after his plane has exploded will give you great insight to the indifference of the universe.

 I dont know what I'm looking at on youtube. Link?

[pbj]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kSRcmjLllHY

[Howard_Casto]

Great, I've taken so long to build it, the factory has gone bust.

I'm no expert but when an airplane factory goes out of business there's probably a reason.  Probably best to throw it away and consider it a learning experience. 

[danny_galaga]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kSRcmjLllHY

That would be comical if it weren't for the fact we probably just watched someone die. Looks like a spin. Pilot error. Cirrus is a very safe, but very expensive light aircraft. Those chutes have arguably saved a number of lives. I think just searching Cirrus parachute on YouTube should net some results

Howard, people can have great products and still go broke. I've had my issues with them but the aircraft itself isa sound design.

It happens in the aircraft world from time to time. Unfortunately, me and Mr Murphy Law are close friends 😄

[Zebidee]

To put things into better perspective, in Queensland during 2022:

- 72 Motorcycle riders died due to transport accidents
- 12 Aircraft occupants died due to powered aircraft accidents

Maybe flying is the safer option.

[Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3303.0 Causes of Death, Queensland, 2022, V20-29, V95]

[danny_galaga]

To put things into better perspective, in Queensland during 2022:

- 72 Motorcycle riders died due to transport accidents
- 12 Aircraft occupants died due to powered aircraft accidents

Maybe flying is the safer option.

[Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3303.0 Causes of Death, Queensland, 2022, V20-29, V95]

Yes, they used to say its safer than driving a car. But I dont think thats the case anymore. But, I was thinking the other day that its much safer than riding a motorbike, since you don't have drunk drivers and geriatrics gunning for you when you're in a plane

[danny_galaga]

I've been diligently double checking everything by starting from page 1 in the build manual, methodically checking every bolt and cable etc. I found a loose bolt 😲. Dismaying there was one, but good to know the methodical check picked it up. I'm just over half way through the manual now. I bought a cheap borescope to get to the hard to see places. Definitely worth buying even if it just gets used once a year.

[RandyT]

To put things into better perspective, in Queensland during 2022:

- 72 Motorcycle riders died due to transport accidents
- 12 Aircraft occupants died due to powered aircraft accidents

Maybe flying is the safer option.

[Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3303.0 Causes of Death, Queensland, 2022, V20-29, V95]

Yes, they used to say its safer than driving a car. But I dont think thats the case anymore. But, I was thinking the other day that its much safer than riding a motorbike, since you don't have drunk drivers and geriatrics gunning for you when you're in a plane

I've had a couple of close calls on a cycle with drivers pulling right in front of me.  One time with a passenger and I had to take the bike sideways and still stopped only inches from the vehicle.  Caused me to keep my eyes glued on vehicles stopped at on-roads from then on.

But statistics will be statistics.  It's not the total number of fatalities which are important, but the overall percentage of fatalities for the number of active operators.  I would suspect that there are a LOT more cycles on the roads than hobbyists buzzing around the skies. 

This discussion reminds me of a saying about the old days on the autobahn where there was no speed-limit.  As a whole, you were very unlikely to get in an accident on the Autobahn.  But if you did, it would almost certainly mean that someone was going to die in the most gruesome of ways.  This is how I view personal aircraft, except maybe with an increased chance of something bad happening.

Everyone has to go at some point.  It might as well be while doing what you love.

[Zebidee]

But statistics will be statistics.  It's not the total number of fatalities which are important, but the overall percentage of fatalities for the number of active operators.  I would suspect that there are a LOT more cycles on the roads than hobbyists buzzing around the skies. 

You are correct to point this out. However, those statistics compare JUST motorcycle rider fatalities with ALL power aircraft occupant fatalities - which means it includes everything from large commercial aircraft to things like helicopters and light planes and ultralights (but not gliders). There is no further breakdown, and that category covers a lot of people doing a lot of stuff, not just ultralight hobbyists. Queensland is BIG, people fly there a lot and for many reasons.

No doubt, motorcycles can be quite dangerous even if you are careful. A lot of what makes them dangerous is other drivers with poor awareness.

For the curious, there were a total of 324 transport accident related deaths in Queensland for 2022 (V01-V99).

Interestingly 11 people died due to "Sleep disorders (G47)"   Even sleeping is dangerous. A further 4 people died from falling off chairs (W07), so sitting can be dangerous too.

Life is short, don't worry too much, do what makes you happy, just please try to be as safe as reasonably possible.

[danny_galaga]

2.6 times the size of Texas

[RandyT]

That is pretty large.  Land mass really isn't that much if an indicator though.  People don't travel on long trips like they used to before Skype, Covid, etc. But people do still commute, go to the store and visit friends locally.

If you really want to know how safe an activity is, you have to do what insurance companies attempt to do, which is determine the number of hours on the road/ in the sky and compare that to the fatality record.  Good luck coming up with accurate numbers though.  Flight logs probably make this easy for aircraft, but there are no accurate records of that nature for cycles.

[danny_galaga]

Actuaries have their methods. And it's reflected in the premiums- a light plane costs a lot more to insure than a motorbike, so I guess really riding a bike is safer. But PERSONALLY I feel safer in the air than on a motorbike.
Incidentally, what type of plane it is effects your premium too. Mines not quite ready to insure but I know that because my plane is a tail dragger, the premium is roughly $1000 a year ON TOP of premium. If I had built the tricycle version of my kit, I'd save $1000 a year on insurance. Why?They fly exactly the same. But tail draggers are more likely to have accidents on the ground when taking off or landing. Usually a ground loop. Not normally resulting in any injury, but can cause damage to the plane.

[RandyT]

Trying not to sound too grim here, but caskets are a lot cheaper than extended medical stays.  And aircraft are much more costly than cycles.  Two things which probably get factored into the premiums in a substantial way.  So insurance costs probably aren't really great indicators of safety either, regardless of how good their estimations of use happen to be. 

IOW, insurance companies are MUCH more concerned with the fiscal aspects than human life and limb. You'd probably need to get ahold of some of those closely guarded internal numbers to get a real feel for what they believe with regard to actual safety of the activity.

[danny_galaga]

Trying not to sound too grim here, but caskets are a lot cheaper than extended medical stays.  And aircraft are much more costly than cycles.  Two things which probably get factored into the premiums in a substantial way.  So insurance costs probably aren't really great indicators of safety either, regardless of how good their estimations of use happen to be. 

IOW, insurance companies are MUCH more concerned with the fiscal aspects than human life and limb. You'd probably need to get ahold of some of those closely guarded internal numbers to get a real feel for what they believe with regard to actual safety of the activity.

Agreed. Insurance companies use very complicated math to come to their conclusions. In fact, if you are an actuary, high level physics is no big deal. Certainly is interesting that my insurance will cost about $1000 more than the exact same plane that has a wheel at the front, instead of the back. Makes sense of course, had I thought harder about it when buying the kit, I might have gone tricycle. But tail draggers just LOOK cooler 😀 . And of course have a little less drag. And keep your rudder skills sharp.

[Zebidee]

You're right about death being cheaper in general. Say you accidentally hit someone with your car. Often you'd be better off killing the person than causing a major injury like spinal damage, for which you could be liable for a lot more (medical & recuperation, pain & suffering, etc).

Insurance companies know this.

But yeah, Queensland is bigger than it looks on a map and has a lot of remote areas that are (realistically) only accessible by plane or helicopter. Especially in the far north and west, but coastal regions too (there are many islands). It takes about 3 days driving to get from Brisbane to Cairns, 2 days only if you really push it. In addition to going from A to B, people use helicopters to herd cattle and track crocodiles, visit islands and perform rescues, and hundreds of other things.

There was a famous crocodile wrangler that died in a helicopter accident in 2022, has a court case attached, but unfortunately and inconveniently for us, that happened in the Northern Territory (next door).

Most of the data actuaries use is in public domain if you care to look for it (in one of my hats I am a data analyst, but have better things to do unless someone wants to pay me). But going on my gut feeling, as I also grew up in Queensland and know motorbikes, is that ultralights seem a lot safer. Even tail-draggers.

[danny_galaga]

But going on my gut feeling, as I also grew up in Queensland and know motorbikes, is that ultralights seem a lot safer. Even tail-draggers.

😁

As an aside, I grew up in the Northern Territory. Even in the NT, we looked on at QLD like you were all rednecks 😂. Once Joh was gone, a lot of us realised 'Hey, its a nice place, and not EVERYONE from QLD is a fascist ' 😀

[Zebidee]

Unfortunately I know exactly what you mean lol. Yeah it is true. Lots of "rednecks", at least in Central Qld. Far from everyone obviously, many great folks too and I have some good friends from those days, but yeah.

I lived in Qld from roughly ages 9 to 17 - before that I was riding motorbikes n other stuff around a farm in NSW. We only went there because my old man got a great job at Rocky Grammar (Central Qld). Even though I'd come from a rural area already, Queenslanders were a shock to my innocent nine year-old southern self. Bullying at the schools was rife, so I survived by joining a nerd gang (played D&D). Luckily I eventually escaped by getting into Uni in Canberra. Was like breathing fresh air again.

Nowadays, I'd maybe like it there again but maybe a bit closer to Brisvegas. Rocky is too hot & humid, so somewhere south from there.

[danny_galaga]

Just so happens the latest issue of Sport Pilot Magazine has safety stats for dec23-mar24. So these stats are only for aircraft in my category, which is ultralight/LSA

3 fatal accidents
4 aircraft destroyed
14 aircraft damaged
7 injuries
17 flight training occurrences
30 private operation occurrences

Not actually sure what they mean by 'occurences', unless it's the same as 'incidents'.

Sadly one of those fatal accidents was at my airfield, in January. Two deaths, my flying instructor and a new owner of an aircraft that my instructor was giving conversion training to.

[Zebidee]

Are those stats for Australia or just for Queensland?

Sorry to hear about the fatalities. Deaths are never good

[danny_galaga]

That's the whole of Australia. RA-AUS, which is a licensing organisation for ultralights, LSA etc. I have a regular licence, but it was a hassle to keep it current. The RA-AUS license is easier to maintain, but has some limitations. Weight limit is the big one. My GA (general aviation ) licence allows up to 5400kg mtow. A DC3 is roughly twice that, so some pretty big planes. My rpc (recreational pilot certificate) has a maximum of 600kg mtow. Also only one passenger,no aerobatics, no night flying. It's a good compromise if you just want to fly for fun 🙂

[danny_galaga]

.

[Zebidee]

Beautiful

[RandyT]

If she flies as good as she looks, you'll be the envy of the airfield.  Great work!

[danny_galaga]

Instrument panel is finally completely installed.it was just hanging on one bolt and some tape for the longest time, just in case I had to take it out to modify etc. now it's in, it's never coming out again as it will be a PITA to remove.

It looks great, but apparently the photo failed security checks 🤷‍♂️

[Zebidee]

Might be just the pic is too large - try resizing it, save as a jpg etc

[danny_galaga]

.

[bobbyb13]

WOW is that impressive.
Beautiful even if it never left the ground.

The prop alone looks like a work of art.

 

[danny_galaga]

.

[Zebidee]

Lol

Do the cute little pictograms actually mean anything, or are they just for decoration? The graph has two obvious axes (age, death probability), so is there a third dataset? I guess not, no attribution either. I'm being too fussy.

Must be just for fun as I see two cyclists in very different spots (and both seem to be wearing helmets too)! Looking at it in a different way, seems to suggest that people over 100 must like skydiving a lot   

How is the plane coming along?

[danny_galaga]

Yeah, unfortunately it's part of a bigger 'picture", the age context doesn't make much sense there does it  😄

Basically, it was showing your chances of dying in the next 1000 hours of continuing with a particular activity. Baseline is commercial jet airline travel, 0.01%. driving a car is four times more deadly at 0.04% but clearly still pretty safe . I think motorcycling was something like 0.6%, which is over a magnitude higher than cars. Flying light aircraft gets you into the 'climby' part of the graph at something like 1.6%. looks a small number, but 160 times more dangerous than airline travel!

The top dude is climbing Mt Everest! The two bikes are regular cycling and downhill mountain biking.

Way off the charts is basejumping and F1 racing. I think base jumping had you at 94% change of dying in the next 1000 hours of activity which made it 9400 times as dangerous as airline travel 😄. F1 racing was only about half as dangerous as base jumping!

[Zebidee]

The top dude is climbing Mt Everest! The two bikes are regular cycling and downhill mountain biking.

Oh, that makes sense! You can see the difference between the bikes if you look closely (road bike vs offroad).



 

[PL1]

Way off the charts is basejumping and F1 racing. I think base jumping had you at 94% change of dying in the next 1000 hours of activity which made it 9400 times as dangerous as airline travel 😄. F1 racing was only about half as dangerous as base jumping!

The important context here is "the next 1000 hours of activity".

Pretty sure there are many F1 drivers who have racked up over 1000 hours of racing time.

Assuming that the average BASE jump lasts less than one minute from jump to touchdown, it would take over 60,000 jumps to rack up 1000 hours of actual jump time.  AFAIK the record number of BASE jumps is 4008 by Miles Daisher.  (ref)

Even if the chart makers assumed an average jump took 15 minutes to pack the chute, 4 minutes to gear up, 10 minutes to climb/move into position, and 1 minute of jump time, it would take 2000 jumps to rack up 1000 hours of activity.

Short duration + severe consequences for mistakes is what makes the numerical rating for BASE jumping so insanely high on this chart.

Two parting thoughts:






Scott

[danny_galaga]

I think this might go a long way to explaining why base jumpers have a shorter life expectancy (clue, the term is 'self entitlement' 😄 )

Language warning

https://youtu.be/TLsf7PjW11A?si=i4TJeUF8NuTETahw