The only true way to tell is to use a multimeter set to continuity test. Look at the Dreamcast AV port pin layout, then you must REVERSE that when looking at the DC-VGA plug end and find pin 7, then use the multimeter to see which wire that corresponds to on the pcb.
Since there are only 15 wires, you could just guess which is wire 7 and cut it (50/50 chance) and see. If it doesn't work, then just splice/twist it back together, and cut the 7th wire counting from the other end.
Good luck!
(If you do not have an arcade monitor to test with immediately, just try hooking it to a VGA monitor...if it still works in VGA you know you cut the wrong one...if it doesn't sync anymore with the computer monitor you did it correctly. You can optionally install a toggle switch if you want backward compatibility with vga.)