Global Warming Effects (not causes)

[Crazy Cooter]

With New Orleans being flodded and all this talk about Global Warming... I thought it was interesting to look at the effects of it all rather than trying to come up with the cause of it.  Pretty crazy.  There's a lot of talk about shifting the jet stream, ocean currents, etc.  I've read before that a few degree increase in the ocean would cause more hurricanes, I wonder if we're "entering" that stage now?

An Alaskan villiage is falling into the sea:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3940399.stm
Tony estimates the tide moves an average of 10 feet (three metres) closer to the land every year. When he was growing up, it was roughly 300 feet (91 metres) from where it is now.

Greenland is growing potatoes where it used to be under ice:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3922579.stm
Now, amid some of the most hostile conditions anywhere on the planet, Carl Boggild and his team have recorded falls as dramatic as 10 metres a year - in places the ice is dropping at a rate of one metre a month.

[dmsuchy]

Get ready, Water World is coming! ....These results of global warming are true, yet the biggest contributing countries to GW don't want to do anything about it. Are only chance is another upcoming ice age to battle global warming

[RayB]

While I don't dispute global warming may be real (be it from man-made causes, solar cycles, or both), I wouldn't necessarily jump on your examples and start yelling "the ocean is rising!".

In some places where the weather hovers right around the freezing point, only a one or two degree change can mean the difference between ice cover and being able to plant potatoes.

Village "falling into the sea"? It's called ERROSION.

New Orleans flooded because a wall broke.

Lots of hurricanes? There are hurricanes every year. Just because this year was a record breaker doesn't mean anything. It's when we start breaking records several years in a row that you really can start saying there's a pattern.

[dmsuchy]

Okay what bout populated island in the pacific losing acres of shore line to the ocean every year. Mind you that these island have been populated  a thousand years with no loss until about the 70s.

[ChadTower]

None of the ice or erosion matters day to day for us... it is the fact that as these things happen, the Earth's climate changes.  Eventually the seasons will be so harsh that people have a hard time surviving outside for long.

[brophog]

History suggests that Earth on it's own has entered such cycles in the past. No doubt though that the weather the past 5-10 years has been rather abnormal.

[ChadTower]

The problem with that theory is that many of those cycles are near global extinction level events.

[RayB]

The problem with that theory is that many of those cycles are near global extinction level events.

A wave cycle can itself follow a wave cycle.

[Stingray]

It's always either too hot or too cold. I can't leave that damn thermostat alone.

-S

[Crazy Cooter]

Without studying geology for the next 4 years, what would happen if the average temp did rise like 5 degrees?  I can't find much info to put that 100-year time span pic into perspective.  There's no scale or anything and no info on how thick the ice was... etc.

So where are the scientific sites without all the "Stop the pollution madness!" stuff?

I know what you mean Stingray.  It's too cold upstairs but too hot downstairs.  I'd sit on the steps, but then I couldn't reach the computer  .

(New Orleans is sinking... maybe that village is too?  I dunno.  I'm not close enough to the ocean to know about that stuff.)

[PetitMorte]

 

Flying Spaghetti Monster says it's a lack of pirates that makes the globe warm.

[Sephroth57]

i dunno about global warming but this is the crazyiest winter ive ever seen in NJ. 2 days ago everyone had the windows open it was so nice outside. its hardly been under 40 here except at night

[Bones]

Without studying geology for the next 4 years, what would happen if the average temp did rise like 5 degrees?

If the average temperature rose by 5 degrees in a time span of just years, you could say goodbye to probably 1/3 of earths ecosystems, many of which are already highly stressed and ready to crumble.

[menace]

you guys should read state of fear by michael crichton--it is a fictional book but he has dropped in lots of factoids from actual scientific journals that cast some doubt on the effects of global warming.  one tidbit--there are over 165,000 glaciers and less than half have been studied--to say glaciers are retreating as a result of global warming might be a bit presumptuous.

[Bones]

It can be difficult to know where to draw the line between normal global fluctuations that are a parts of Earths cycle, and human causes.

[patrickl]

you guys should read state of fear by michael crichton--it is a fictional book but he has dropped in lots of factoids from actual scientific journals that cast some doubt on the effects of global warming.

[RayB]

i dunno about global warming but this is the crazyiest winter ive ever seen in NJ. 2 days ago everyone had the windows open it was so nice outside. its hardly been under 40 here except at night

That kind of statement is exactly the problem with "joe average" making assessments about the weather, etc. People have such SHORT memory spans. You don't remember a time EVER where you could have freezing temps one week and then mild the next?? Well I know for a fact that in some parts of North America (say, like New Jersey maybe?) it happens all the time, every year in FALL and also in SPRING. It's normal. And in summer we get heat waves and occasional cool waves. ITS NORMAL!

But people have short memories. They can only think "hurricane last month + fluctuating temperatures this month = weather system has gone crazy!!! AHHH!"

I remember clearly one Christmas eve back around 1978/79 that it was RAINING and the grass was clear of snow outside. This was in Quebec, east of Montreal where usually we trick or treated in snow suits. That was 26 years ago. I guess we should be expecting a tropical christmas in Quebec this year.

[patrickl]

That kind of statement is exactly the problem with "joe average" making assessments about the weather, etc. People have such SHORT memory spans.

I remember clearly one Christmas eve back around 1978/79 that it was RAINING and the grass was clear of snow outside. This was in Quebec, east of Montreal where usually we trick or treated in snow suits. That was 26 years ago. I guess we should be expecting a tropical christmas in Quebec this year.

You are confusing "trend" and the "peaks and troughs". The fact that there once was a high peak in the past does not mean that the average cannot be climbing.

[menace]

The size of a statisically significant testgroup is far smaller than half the "population". If that's really an argument he tries to use then he is laughable to begin with.

for my own information what is the size of a statistically significant testgroup when you are dealing with separate entities located in virtually every corner of the planet?  I'm not being facetious I really am curious.  Could you look at 100 or 1000 and say they are all retreating?  how would they be have to be ditributed to represent the planetary trend? 

As far as temperature gains/losses, some cities have also reported cooling trends--is this also due to global warming? 

[Ed_McCarron]

The problem with that theory is that many of those cycles are near global extinction level events.

Kinda like rebooting the planet.

I place my bets on the fact that weather is cyclical.  Its just politics/sensationalism blaming it ALL on my SUV.

I'll worry when Philly is oceanfront property.

[Crazy Cooter]

As far as temperature gains/losses, some cities have also reported cooling trends--is this also due to global warming? 

That's what I'm wondering.  If the planet is warming like everyone says (the cause seems to the dispute), What effects are we going to have?  If the jet stream changes, it seems reasonable that some areas will be warmer, some colder.  I'm wondering what the overall effect will be.  Does an increase in the planet temp cause more hurricanes?  How much would the sea level rise?  Should we get the last of the pirates? 

[patrickl]

The size of a statisically significant testgroup is far smaller than half the "population". If that's really an argument he tries to use then he is laughable to begin with.

for my own information what is the size of a statistically significant testgroup when you are dealing with separate entities located in virtually every corner of the planet?

[menace]

thanks for that--I should have been more clear--he wasn't saying 50% showed receeding glaciers--he said less than half have been studied--don't recall if there was a breakdown between those that are receeding and those that are growing.

[ChadTower]

common sense tells us that the glaciers receding are the ones on the edges... hence the definition of the word receding...

[RayB]

That kind of statement is exactly the problem with "joe average" making assessments about the weather, etc. People have such SHORT memory spans.

I remember clearly one Christmas eve back around 1978/79 that it was RAINING and the grass was clear of snow outside. This was in Quebec, east of Montreal where usually we trick or treated in snow suits. That was 26 years ago. I guess we should be expecting a tropical christmas in Quebec this year.

You are confusing "trend" and the "peaks and troughs". The fact that there once was a high peak in the past does not mean that the average cannot be climbing.

That's exactly my point. The fact that there's a "peak" or "trough" right now, does not mean that the average is climbing either. Freak peaks mean nothing. It's long term statistical averages that do mean something.

[menace]

common sense tells us that the glaciers receding are the ones on the edges

not sure what you mean there.

[Crazy Cooter]

I've been oddly psychic lately...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4485840.stm
Kind of goes into how there is less cold water flowing south in the Atlantic.  My guess would be... less cold water... less cooling... warmer water... more hurricanes.  But the article doesn't cover that aspect.