The NEW Build Your Own Arcade Controls
Main => Consoles => Topic started by: shmokes on July 30, 2005, 01:21:12 pm
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First Ken Kutaragi (guy in charge of PS3) says that PS3 is going to be really expensive but he hopes people will want it so badly that they will decide that they will work more hours to be able to afford it. Now he just said,
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(http://cubemedia.ign.com/cube/image/article/637/637492/ps3admockup_1122587943.jpg)
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(http://cubemedia.ign.com/cube/image/article/637/637492/ps3admockup_1122587943.jpg)
For that kinda money I better not need that paddle! It should be able to read my mind! :)
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For that kind of money, it had better be made by Nintendo instead.
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i have a feeling that is not a real promo or accurate quote. if you do the math, that is nearly 4500-5000 bucks. there is no way that the new PS3 is goin to cost more than most computers. even the 360 is being marketed as a home PC and it costs less than a normal computer. the odds of that are "3,724 to 1.... but he has been known to make mistakes... from time to time".
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i have a feeling that is not a real promo or accurate quote.
Nope. Just some good-natured mocking of actual Kutaragi statements(the 2 large-print statements are actual quotes from actual interviews). The man's a comic genius.
the odds of that are "3,724 to 1.... but he has been known to make mistakes... from time to time".
And congratulations. You've won the geek of the year award with that sentence.
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i have a feeling that is not a real promo or accurate quote. if you do the math, that is nearly 4500-5000 bucks. there is no way that the new PS3 is goin to cost more than most computers. even the 360 is being marketed as a home PC and it costs less than a normal computer. the odds of that are "3,724 to 1.... but he has been known to make mistakes... from time to time".
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Yeah that image is from an editorial on ign. Kutaragi has said some wild things in interview lately. I don't know if his statments are being mistranslated or what the deal is. I have a feeling despite what he said, the ps3 will cost about the same as the 360.
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whats worse is we are looking at the very real likelyhood of 100.00$ games.
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i have heard it will cost between
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i have heard it will cost between
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And congratulations. You've won the geek of the year award with that sentence.
he he he... finally... someone who appreciates humor based on completely nerdly topics.
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Yeah that image is from an editorial on ign. Kutaragi has said some wild things in interview lately. I don't know if his statments are being mistranslated or what the deal is. I have a feeling despite what he said, the ps3 will cost about the same as the 360.
I think Kutaragi's just gone of the deep end. These things are too widespread to be mistranslations.
But he's got power so he's eccentric, not crazy.
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It will now make more sense to buy the arcade kits new rather than a console :o
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I'm guessing a $400 - $500 system. I really want one so I hope they aren't more than that.
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Yeah....PS3 holds top spot in my mind right now. I really hope Ken is blabbing nonsense cos I want one too. This is coming from someone who currently owns a Gamecube and Xbox but still doesn't have a PS2 (and don't plan to ever get one -- especially if I get a PS3).
I don't think Nintendo is going to be a real competitor in the next gen. I get the impression that they agree. I hope I'm wrong, cos that's who I would most like to win it. I have always considered myself a Nintendo guy first, but I think this will be the first generation of videogames where I buy someone else's system before Nintendo's (Atari doesn't count cos I was so young I had nothing to do with getting that system). And I doubt I will buy any system until all three are on the market and have come down in price a bit because I have so little time now (a status that is unlikely to change within the next four years) and so many games already.
$400-$500 is too much. If it is more than $400 ($399 to be more precise) it will fail. I suspect that Sony will realize that maybe they overshot the specs and will have to take an extra big loss, but that's better than losing the number one spot altogether. To this end they will make it $349 and just take an enormous loss on each piece of hardware. They can't afford to lose the number one spot. Look at PS2. It's nearing 100 million sold while the nearest competitior wallows at less than 20 million. PS2 represents by far the bulk of Sony's profits. We're talking about one of the biggest consumer electronics manufacturers in the world. The inventor of the Walkman and Discman. And the Playstation represents over half the company's profits.
um....okay...i'm done. Maybe I'll edit this tomorrow and cut it down. I've had a lot of wine tonight. I think I'm running off at the mouth.
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you can whine however much you want about the price, but just remember a pc with similar specs would cost around
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you can whine however much you want about the price, but just remember a pc with similar specs would cost around
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you can whine however much you want about the price, but just remember a pc with similar specs would cost around
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consoles may not be getting any more unreliable, but they are becoming more and more like pcs, and pcs are becoming more and more easier to use, i mean, compare the home computers of the megadrive's and NES's era, they were alot harder to use.
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nintendo's console isnt going to be very revolutionary at all, it only has a single core processor, infact the only good thing about it is the price... which reinforces my idea that nintendo have given up trying to go for "mature gamers" (is there such a thing?) and aiming at younger children.
they have always been that way... sure there are those few "adult games" but c'mon we gotta be realistic here...
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consoles may not be getting any more unreliable, but they are becoming more and more like pcs, and pcs are becoming more and more easier to use, i mean, compare the home computers of the megadrive's and NES's era, they were alot harder to use.
That has next to zero impact on the console gaming industry. Gaming sees three main camps.... PC gamers, Console gamers, and gamers who play both. Finding "easier" ways to use a PC will not convert console gamers to PCs. Making console more "PC-like" will not convert PC gamers, and those who play both will continute to play both.
Consoles are becoming more and more like PCs simply because the technology behind them. They may be similarly spec'd out when compared to a PC, but they are very VERY different beasts. Even teh Xbox, which is admittedly a PC in a console suit, is not an actual PC. There are very distinct differences between the two that will not change anytime soon.
PCs will survive, Consoles will survive.... I'll put up my MAME machine on that bet.
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consoles may not be getting any more unreliable, but they are becoming more and more like pcs, and pcs are becoming more and more easier to use, i mean, compare the home computers of the megadrive's and NES's era, they were alot harder to use.
Not really.
Consoles are certainly more technically advanced, but they are still light years ahead of PC when it comes to ease of use. PC's will NEVER attain that ease. Being that they are comprised of any parts a user wishes to put into them, from whatever brand/manufacturer, to do any number of tasks for different people... The amount of customization there will always mean that there will be extra steps in running games, which is still what gaming consoles are primarily about, and will always be.
PC's are were no harder to use back then. You had command line vs mouse click, but there is so many other things that make PC's just as difficult today. What with security issues that arise from simple browsing of the internet (I have seen countless computers crippled by malicious cookies, and the problems they bring) to viruses, trojan horses, and other things that make PC's MUCH more complicated then they were back in the day.
Maybe configuring hardware is easier today, but configuring software has easily tipped the scales the other way.
Even with the expandability that is looking to show up in the next generation consoles, we are not going to see any rise in complication to the user.
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I'm not sure I understand this at all.. how exactly will the PS3 or 360 be as easy to mess up as a PC? It is still a dedicated console. At its heart, you put in a disc, and the game plays. Sure it has other functions, but it is a game machine. How have you screwed up your PS2 or Xbox? I know I haven't. Consoles will remain MUCH simpler than PCs this coming generation.
it is very easy to do, especially with the ability to mod current systems to run OS's like Linux, etc. i can probably do a search within the forums and turn up who knows how many reports of modding gone bad and a ruined system. and in principle, yes they will remain simple, but compare the way that a PS2 works with, say, a SNES. how simple was SNES... insert cartridge, turn on power. wah lah. gaming. now you can do so many things with PS2. Wanna watch a movie? put in a disc. wanna edit that memory card? make sure there are no discs in the system, select which feature you want to go to (memory card manager), wait for loading of memory card..... etc. much much more complicated than even 10 years ago.
anyway... I am done ranting.... i think i haved pissed enough people off now. ;D (if I did... please dont hurt me. Hey... you wouldn't hit a guy with glasses, would ya?)
you aren't seriously going to use that logic are you??
You aren't supposed to mod your systems. I have a modded Xbox and PS2 and yes that would be easy to mess up... but that isn't the point. Ultramangus said consoles are getting harder to use or more like PCs or whatever... no they aren't.
Out of the box, you put in a game and it loads. Forget loading linux and modding systems... that is not supposed to happen. If you buy a car and drop a twin turbo setup in it and crank it to 800HP then blow the thing up, will you say cars are getting unreliable? Of course not... you did it yourself.
and seriously... editing a memory card is hard? Harder than an SNES? It's a simple GUI. It's a click or two to get where you want to go. Playing DVDs on a PS2 or Xbox is no harder than using a DVD player... do you have trouble with that? This is not complicated stuff folks... especially when in the same paragraph you talk about modding a system and loading an unsupported OS on it... but then say its hard to delete your Metal Gear Solid game save from your PS2
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You know what just occurrred to me...
We all know that the console manufacturers (with the possible exception of Nintendo) are going to lose A LOT of money on the machines, especially when they are first released.
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I think you American kiddies should be thankful how cheap your consoles have been for so long.
Here in Australia we have low population density and high shipping costs. We have always paid 20-80% more than you guys on all hardware and software since time began.
In the US it's not uncommon for companies to sell consoles at a considerable loss and make the profits back on games.
Consider for a moment the hardware we are talking about in these consoles. The XBox360 is talking about three PowerPC970 processors, and the PS3 similarly specced/performance Cell processors (based on the PowerPC design with a few modifications). That's starting to get into the processing power of midrage professional 3D workstations and powermacs. It's not uncommon for these to retail at US$1000+, so seeing a console with thise sort of power going for $US 300-400 is a steal, when you think about it.
And outside of that, consumers are the ones who have started this "who's got the most bling factor" contest among consoles. It seems people care far more about how many billions of polygons a system can push, or what final resultion or shader level it supports rather than the quality of the games bundled. And as long as that happens, console makers will sacrifice a price-point to make sure they have the most whiz-bang system on paper.
But no matter how great consoles seem to be, it doesn't stop the fact that one in ten console games are utter tripe with no playability or replay factor. Perhaps online gaming will fix that, but you sure as hell don't need 3GHz of processing power for that. :)
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I can completely envision a time when the PC becomes more like the game console and the game console will be more like the PC. I envision instant-on capability and instant games, but also instant web browsing and productivity software all from one device. In my head I have a picture of a Pocket PC, but with far superior specs that could handle anything thrown at it.
I can totally see PC's being replaced with set-top boxes. And while you're at it, why not throw the games onto it? TV resolutions are only getting better. It won't happen with the coming generation of consoles. It won't come the with generation following it, either. But 3 generations from now, I think we're going to see a mass convergence.
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I think were all forgetting about the "boom to bust" cycle of video games. Right now there is an incredible boom in video games, but there will be a bust. I try not to think three or four generations ahead in console gaming. It is very possible that we could see next generation consoles that not enough people want. I still remember buying Atari and Intellivision carts from the clearance bin for .99 cents. It was a long dry spell before people were willing to shell out big dollars for a new console.
Geo
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It's not a matter of whether the consoles are worth $500. It's a matter of whether people will pay that much money for them in large numbers (they won't, by the way). A particular yaught might be an absolute steal at $3.5 million dollars but that won't have many people lining up to buy it.
It's stupid for a manufacturer of any product to price their product out of the range of their target audience.
And there will be no bust for videogames. Sure they will have good years and bad years, good quarters and bad quarters, but videogames have reached a critical mass that ensures their permanency. Atari didn't sell 100 million consoles worldwide. The average age of an Atari player wasn't well into adulthood. Videogames rival Hollywood now in terms of revenue and consider that technologically they are still in their infancy, with unrealistic graphics, physics, AI and downright primitive control interfaces. Movies have practically peaked technologically. Movies like the Lord of the Rings and the new Star Wars Movies show that we can now show anything we want on film and make it look completely real, as if that object or creature actually exists in the real world and was being shot on film. Movies can't really move much further technologically without becoming something completely different.
Videogames are only going to continue to grow and as they develop more sophisticated, intuitive interfaces more and more non-traditional gamers will be attracted to the medium. Videogames will eventually supplant movies in the same way movies supplanted books (which is to say Movies will be around in a big way for a long time, but won't be nearly as popular or relevant as videogames).
There's my forcast. And I'm god.
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I think were all forgetting about the "boom to bust" cycle of video games. Right now there is an incredible boom in video games, but there will be a bust. I try not to think three or four generations ahead in console gaming. It is very possible that we could see next generation consoles that not enough people want. I still remember buying Atari and Intellivision carts from the clearance bin for .99 cents. It was a long dry spell before people were willing to shell out big dollars for a new console.
Geo
Very good points. I consider the last console bust to be just at the end of the SNES/Genesis (MegaDrive) era. 2D consoles were starting to die, and 3D consoles were creeping in. We had the 3DO, Sega Saturn and Nintendo N64 all come along and do pretty poorly (N64 being the only one that actually survived, I think).
The boom just before that was MASSIVE. Consider the sheer volume of games in the SNES and Genesis/MegaDrive libraries... they were staggering! Before that NES/Master-System games were big also thanks to the sudden advent of cheap home electronics.
The next rise post Satrun/N64 didn't really get moving until the PSX/Dreamcast, and even that wasn't as huge as the PS2 and XBox.
The PS3 and XBox360 don't yet represent anything better than what the PS2 and XBox offer. Hi-res is all nice and peachy, but 99.99% of the market still play games on SD resolution TVs. 7.1 sound is cool, but I'm still playing my games through a stereo television.
I'm curious as all buggery as to who will buy the new consoles. Of course there will be the rich kids and have-to-haves who camp outside the stores and buy them at midnight. But I really don't think (a) the original PS2 and Xbox will die qucikly (unless imposed by their makers) and (b) if given the choice of a $100 PS2/Xbox or $300-400 PS3 or Xbox360 that a casual gamer will take the more expensive option.
I'm sure Microsoft and Sony are both well aware that neither are offering anything mind-blowingly new to the market (can you really ever beat the 2D->3D jump in terms of wow factor?).
Interesting times ahead.
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Very good points. I consider the last console bust to be just at the end of the SNES/Genesis (MegaDrive) era. 2D consoles were starting to die, and 3D consoles were creeping in. We had the 3DO, Sega Saturn and Nintendo N64 all come along and do pretty poorly (N64 being the only one that actually survived, I think).
The boom just before that was MASSIVE. Consider the sheer volume of games in the SNES and Genesis/MegaDrive libraries... they were staggering! Before that NES/Master-System games were big also thanks to the sudden advent of cheap home electronics.
The next rise post Satrun/N64 didn't really get moving until the PSX/Dreamcast, and even that wasn't as huge as the PS2 and XBox.
The PS3 and XBox360 don't yet represent anything better than what the PS2 and XBox offer. Hi-res is all nice and peachy, but 99.99% of the market still play games on SD resolution TVs. 7.1 sound is cool, but I'm still playing my games through a stereo television.
I'm curious as all buggery as to who will buy the new consoles. Of course there will be the rich kids and have-to-haves who camp outside the stores and buy them at midnight. But I really don't think (a) the original PS2 and Xbox will die qucikly (unless imposed by their makers) and (b) if given the choice of a $100 PS2/Xbox or $300-400 PS3 or Xbox360 that a casual gamer will take the more expensive option.
I'm sure Microsoft and Sony are both well aware that neither are offering anything mind-blowingly new to the market (can you really ever beat the 2D->3D jump in terms of wow factor?).
Interesting times ahead.
Your accounting of history is quite other worldly.
There was most certainly no bust after the SNES/Genesis days. Sega messed up with the Saturn, because they lost a lot of trust with their lack of support for the Sega CD & 32X. Playstation was released right after saturn, long before N64 even hit, and is one of the most successful consoles of all time. As for 3DO... That thing was destined to fail, because of the ridiculous price tag it carried.
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Ditto
There ain't no bust coming. Someone was talking about convergence and there's a lot of truth to that. The PC is going to regress back to a productivity tool. It's great that it is a veritable swiss army knife and can do so bloody much, but in the end, people don't want to listen to their music on their PC. They don't want to watch movies in their office. Consoles, as well as convergence in other home electronics, such as adding hard drives to CD players so you can just rip your music right to your home stereo, are going to drive many of the computing tasks that occupy our current CPUs out into the living room.
The next gen consoles (Nintendo excluded) are obviously gearing up for this paradigm shift in consumer behavior. Sony and MS know that this stuff is going to be huge, and they're right. I've been using Xbox Media Center for a couple years now and it is just light years beyond what other people are doing with DVDs and CDs and stuff. It's a total revolution in the way media is handled, but it's completely intuitive and easy to use. I have modded 5 Xboxes in the last 2 months for friends and family and 2 of those are for people who have never had any interest in videogames and have no intention of playing videogames on it. I don't sell them on it. They just come to my house one day and see me browsing through all my media on my TV screen and say, "Hey.....what are you doing?" And that's that. I've got two more brothers that are going to get one within the next few months and neither of them have any interest in games.
So anyway....yeah, there's no bust around the corner. The videogame industry has never been larger or healthier and it is only set to grow and mature. We've got a long way until we have hollodecks. :)
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Analyst: Sony could wait till '07 to launch PS3
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/08/02/news_6129862.html?tag=lastword_all_headline
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Your accounting of history is quite other worldly.
There was most certainly no bust after the SNES/Genesis days. Sega messed up with the Saturn, because they lost a lot of trust with their lack of support for the Sega CD & 32X. Playstation was released right after saturn, long before N64 even hit, and is one of the most successful consoles of all time. As for 3DO... That thing was destined to fail, because of the ridiculous price tag it carried.
My account is based on Austalian release dates and sales, which are obviously typically and totally arse about thanks to the standard console marketing techniques from Japan and the US.
And then they all get cranky at us for grey importing consoles instead of being good little consumers and waiting 6-12 months for an official release. Hello? Simultaneous worldwide release anyone? Welcome to the global market.
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My account is based on Austalian release dates and sales, which are obviously typically and totally arse about thanks to the standard console marketing techniques from Japan and the US.
And then they all get cranky at us for grey importing consoles instead of being good little consumers and waiting 6-12 months for an official release. Hello? Simultaneous worldwide release anyone? Welcome to the global market.
Ahhhhh
Yes.
Please excuse the moronic, "I am American, and so the rest of the internet world is as well" brain farts I tend to suffer from occasionally. :)
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Ahhhhh
Yes.
Please excuse the moronic, "I am American, and so the rest of the internet world is as well" brain farts I tend to suffer from occasionally. :)
Nah, all good. (a) It's an American board, so no foul and (b) it really sucks to be a gamer outside of the US or Japan.
Everything's screwey, expensive and late over here. You guys really do have it so much better over there. Just spare a thought for us poor little "middle-of-nowhere" type folks who have to wait 6 months for hardware and then pay 20% more than you did at release, despite titles already appearing in your local bargain bins. :(
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Ahhhhh
Yes.
Please excuse the moronic, "I am American, and so the rest of the internet world is as well" brain farts I tend to suffer from occasionally. :)
Nah, all good. (a) It's an American board, so no foul and (b) it really sucks to be a gamer outside of the US or Japan.
Everything's screwey, expensive and late over here. You guys really do have it so much better over there. Just spare a thought for us poor little "middle-of-nowhere" type folks who have to wait 6 months for hardware and then pay 20% more than you did at release, despite titles already appearing in your local bargain bins. :(
wow man, that sucks.
Sorry :) I'll have a moment of silence for you guys when I'm playing my new consoles :P
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I just beg to differ with most of you. There is likely to be a bust. All it takes is one generation of kids to find something other than video games to bust the market. Don't believe me? Go to the Arcade at the mall and play some video games...wait there is no Arcade at the mall. I'm not saying video games will die. Just that there will be periods of little or no new development, caused by lack of interest or by lack of money. Leisure spending is the first to go in tough times. Health insurance premiums have risen 60% over the last three years on average, gas and food prices are on the rise etc... If it continues and revenue increases do not keep up, Leisure products will suffer. It happens over and over historically. Also, market saturation is a factor. The PC industry just recovered from a "bust" that they predicted would never happen. This was mostly due to market saturation.
Just my opinion
Geo
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I believe the bust will come when the games that come out don't innovate enough to catch the attention of your average gamer.
I hope this never occurs but it's bound to happen. Also, more and more companies are taking less risks and are releasing sequels. Now I will play sequels and be happy but if this trend continues I think people will eventually become starved for a new creative game.
I can't wait for the future to see who guessed the correct price for the PS3. . .
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I just beg to differ with most of you. There is likely to be a bust. All it takes is one generation of kids to find something other than video games to bust the market. Don't believe me? Go to the Arcade at the mall and play some video games...wait there is no Arcade at the mall. I'm not saying video games will die. Just that there will be periods of little or no new development, caused by lack of interest or by lack of money. Leisure spending is the first to go in tough times. Health insurance premiums have risen 60% over the last three years on average, gas and food prices are on the rise etc... If it continues and revenue increases do not keep up, Leisure products will suffer. It happens over and over historically. Also, market saturation is a factor. The PC industry just recovered from a "bust" that they predicted would never happen. This was mostly due to market saturation.
Just my opinion
Geo
Video gamers span several generations now though, and that will continue to be the case for now and evermore.
Arcades did not die because kids stopped gaming. They died, because kids could get arcade quality gaming at home (or at least close enough to).
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Arcades did not die because kids stopped gaming. They died, because kids could get arcade quality gaming at home (or at least close enough to).
Couldn't be more wrong about that!
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Arcades did not die because kids stopped gaming. They died, because kids could get arcade quality gaming at home (or at least close enough to).
Couldn't be more wrong about that!
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I so called this. Katarugi's statements appear to be factoring in to Microsoft's pricing strategy. I just pulled this snippet from Xbox-Scene:
Xbox 360 to launch in Europe on November 25 for 430EUR ?
>> From GamesIndustry.biz:
Highly placed sources in the UK industry have told GamesIndustry.biz that the Xbox 360 is set to launch in Europe on November 25th, with the US launch preceding a few days earlier.
According to our sources, speaking under conditions of strict anonymity, the official announcement of the European date will be made by Microsoft to its trade partners on the 15th of this month, two days before a public announcement at Game Convention in Leipzig.
The price of the system remains less certain - with our sources indicating that Microsoft itself may not have made up its mind on the matter as yet.
"The original plan was UKP 249 (358EUR/442USD)), but now that Sony is talking about the PS3 being expensive, UKP 299 (430EUR/530USD) is looking more likely," according to one source - although it was admitted that this pricing is a "best guess" based on information from Microsoft, not an official figure by any means.
In a way, it's seems like indirect price fixing. The companies don't have to officially collude with each other. They both now that each stands to lose hundreds of millions on hardware. Sony sends out a public message to MS (but disguises it as being directed to consumers) saying, "Look, don't go nuts trying to undercut us. Our box is going to be REALLY expensive. We're hearing rumors about a $299 pricepoint and we know that's going to cost you A LOT of money. You don't need to go there just to beat us on price. You can accomplish that at a much higher pricepoint."
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Multiple generations of people listen to music, but the music industry is in decline right now, as well as the movie industry. Markets ebb and flow period.
And I agreed already that the industry will have good years/bad years, good quarters/bad quarters. There's just no bust coming any more than you would say that the movie industry is in a bust right now, just because ticket sales are "down".
If the whole economy goes seriously south that ain't some game-industry specific boom/bust cycle manifesting itself. That's just people having less money to spend on non-essentials that will affect all nonessentials including the game industry.
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And I agreed already that the industry will have good years/bad years, good quarters/bad quarters. There's just no bust coming any more than you would say that the movie industry is in a bust right now, just because ticket sales are "down".
If the whole economy goes seriously south that ain't some game-industry specific boom/bust cycle manifesting itself. That's just people having less money to spend on non-essentials that will affect all nonessentials including the game industry.
Basically...thanks for agreeing with me. You're just using different terminology. Bad years are Bust years. Also Microsoft and Sony are public corporations that answer to shareholders. If they build a console that is so expensive that they have to sell it at a loss, it can only be maintained for so long before the shareholders force them to make a profit or drop the product line. They can afford to do it now because game sales are brisk and they make it up in licensing fees to developers. But if they have a couple bad quarters in game sales you could see dramatically longer periods between hardware upgrades i.e. new consoles. To illustrate my point, I would like to mention that Toys'R'Us is now considering dropping toys from the stores and just selling baby clothes and furniture. All it takes is shareholders getting pissed because of saggy sales. Also my point about arcades dying was to illustrate that Arcades and the home console market died at the same time. Arcades didn't die because of better systems at home, the home market died at the same time, kids just stopped playing period. Better systems at home are what brought the industry back, and what is keeping the arcades from coming back. It did almost become extinct though, and that is incontrovertable. I can also say that I have two teenage boys, neither of which has even mentioned the new Sony PSP. It's not because of price, they ask for outrageous stuff all the time, they just seem to have no interest in it. I haven't heard any of their friends mention it either. They are also struggling to find new games that catch their interest. I take them to the store when they get their allowance, they look at the games for a good twenty minutes, find nothing different enough to warrant a purchase and go buy something else. The last game they got excited about was Halo 2.
Geo
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Basically...thanks for agreeing with me. You're just using different terminology. Bad years are Bust years. Also Microsoft and Sony are public corporations that answer to shareholders. If they build a console that is so expensive that they have to sell it at a loss, it can only be maintained for so long before the shareholders force them to make a profit or drop the product line. They can afford to do it now because game sales are brisk and they make it up in licensing fees to developers. But if they have a couple bad quarters in game sales you could see dramatically longer periods between hardware upgrades i.e. new consoles. To illustrate my point, I would like to mention that Toys'R'Us is now considering dropping toys from the stores and just selling baby clothes and furniture. All it takes is shareholders getting pissed because of saggy sales. Also my point about arcades dying was to illustrate that Arcades and the home console market died at the same time. Arcades didn't die because of better systems at home, the home market died at the same time, kids just stopped playing period. Better systems at home are what brought the industry back, and what is keeping the arcades from coming back. It did almost become extinct though, and that is incontrovertable. I can also say that I have two teenage boys, neither of which has even mentioned the new Sony PSP. It's not because of price, they ask for outrageous stuff all the time, they just seem to have no interest in it. I haven't heard any of their friends mention it either. They are also struggling to find new games that catch their interest. I take them to the store when they get their allowance, they look at the games for a good twenty minutes, find nothing different enough to warrant a purchase and go buy something else. The last game they got excited about was Halo 2.
Geo
Ok, I have to really disagree here.
BAD years are NOT bust years. A bad quarter and an industry bust is completely different. Gaming could have a slow and steady decline for multiple years at this point and the industry still wouldn't bust. The gaming industry holds more financial weight than movies do currently. Short of a Great Depression-sized economic disaster, you will NOT see a gaming bust of the magnitude seen in ~1982. It'll happen the same day that movies and music go out of style.
Second, Microsoft is STILL losing money on their consoles. I understand that you are saying that it would be frowned upon if they were losing game sales WHILE losing money to hardware sales, but the two are intertwined. I forget the number exactly, but I believe the loss is absorbed if a consumer buys something like 4 games when liscensing, game profits, etc are taken into account. You will NEVER see a time where a game company will see sharply declining game sales, yet a boom in hardware sales. If they aren't selling as many games, they aren't selling as many systems.. thus, their losses are proportionate. Stockholders do need to be answered to, but if the PERCENTAGES remain constant or similar, they won't be such a factor. What scenario can you think of where Microsoft would sell millions of game consoles at a loss, yet not sell an average of 4 games per system?? Stockholders care about proportionate company successes.
Third, Toys R Us is a terrible example. The company was recently sold, and is undergoing a complete corporate retructuring. They HAVE to do something different to dig themselves out of the hole they are in. New blood bring in changes in busines, it's normal. Also, toys take up the bulk of TRU floorspace, not games, so I don't see how that is even relevant. TRU was almost destroyed thanks to the Targets and WalMarts of the world... it had nothing to do with changes in consumer preference. There hasn't been a "toy bust" has there??
your sons may not want a PSP, but I don't see how that is a foreshadowing of the "unavoidable" gaming demise that you see on the horizon.
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The Toys R Us example was to show how drastically companies sometimes have to change when Shareholders see sustained losses. To show that a company with Toys in their name would consider not selling Toys to satisfy shareholders. I am also saying that a bust will eventually come, based on the past history of luxury items in the economy. It might very well take another Great Depression, but who's to say that isn't on the horizon. The US Economy is highly leveraged in the global market place. Some very large countries whose economies could very well overrun ours are holding vast amounts of US debt, i.e. China, Arab oil cartels, etc. Most of us here on this board are very familiar with the growing trend in the outsourcing of US technology and manufacturing jobs. We are all also very familiar with the rising cost associated with fuel, food, housing, insurance, and taxation. All I'm saying is that these factors should affect Sony and Microsofts ability to charge $400 for hardware that does not show dramatic improvement over the last model. I'm just trying to be realistic. I love games as much as anyone around here, but I remember when you could not go to a mini-mart, gas station, restraunt, or mall without hearing or seeing coinop video games. They were very much main stream then, and they disappeared. Right now most people in this country live beyond their means. Eventually the bill will come due and luxury spending will take the first hit. The housing market in California is outrageous. Median priced homes are selling at an average $500,000 plus. Most people get into these using interest only loans. In the next 5 years the interest will start getting tacked on to these loans and people's house payments will rise dramatically. The banking and real estate industry is openly speculating on the coming boom to their industry when all the foreclosures hit. Credit Card companies see it coming and are frantic to get lawmakers in this country to pass legislation preventing bankruptcy, much of which has already passed. Maybe I'm just being too much of a big picture person, paranoid or what not, but I got off the credit bandwagon a decade ago and it terrifies me to see the amount of debt being carried by the average person in this country. I've worked in manufacturing since I was 14 years old, my father owned a machine shop. I've been an R&D machinist for almost 15 years, and I've watched very large segments of manufacturing in this country disappear, and we should all be very afraid. It will be hard to sustain the empire if we get everything we buy from other countries. I try to buy American, but it is very difficult these days. My last Ford was Heche en Mexico. At this point I guess I've gone off the deep end and have no understanding of basic economics. I will get up Monday morning, put bread in my Chinese toaster, coffee in my Taiwanese coffee pot, put on my made in Mexico clothes, drive to work in my made in Mexico car, sit in front of my made in Japan CNC machine, and dream of $400 dollar game consoles while I wait for someone to ask me to make something. At this point I'm dependent on our governments seemingly endless need for new ways to put holes in s#%t to keep my machine running.
Geo
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I hate to go off topic, but I just have to say one thing...
<rant>
I'm not reading these loooooooong posts that don't have carriage returns. It could be great words of wisdom, but if it's not broken into logical units, I'm not going to waste my time figuring it out.
The paragraph is a wonderlful invention. It's existed for hundreds of years. Please use it.
</rant>
We now return to our regularly scheduled game-related argument.
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My humblest apoligies for the long rant.
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i'm guessing 399 USD MAX
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There will be no videogame bust.
Why?
Because I said so!
And $399USD will be the US release date price of the PS3...also because I said so...
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http://specialreserve.co.uk/n_3517-news.html?af=ur120805&afset=1
intresting
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http://specialreserve.co.uk/n_3517-news.html?af=ur120805&afset=1
intresting
I'd put Mac OS on there before you could even say the word "Tiger".
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http://specialreserve.co.uk/n_3517-news.html?af=ur120805&afset=1
intresting
I'd put Mac OS on there before you could even say the word "Tiger".
If it can really accept the MacOS fully, the PS3 could be the cheapest way to get into the Mac scene.....
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yeah, well theoretically it can anyhow, seeing how the PS3 (well actually so do the 360 and revolution) use the PPC arcitecture, it would probabally just require drivers.
hmm, come to think about it, dont modern amigas use the PPC arcitecture?
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So Sony wants to make a Console that is more like a PC ??? Maybe Nintendo is onto something. Make a console that plays games. They may just price themselves out of the market by trying to do everything, i.e. music player, home computer, internet browser, etc...instead of concentrating on games. They could run into trouble at $400 if the next generation Nintendo comes in at $200 and fufills the main purpose of playing games.
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I spoke with a guy I know working for GameStop.
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Its very odd that the Sony rep said it would be out thanksgiving since everything I read about the PS3 says that's almost impossible due to the Cell not being ready in the numbers needed.
PS3 was supposed to be out Spring 2006 or even pushed to 2007 according to some. I really doubt we'll see a PS3 in 2005.
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Again, everyone can take this info with a grain of salt and listen to whatever you want to, I was just giving my update here.
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heh I saw the disclaimer. You'll notice I didn't say you were wrong, I just think it is very unlikely.
None of us will know the deal until it comes from teh horse's mouth... until then we're all guessing, even the "reps" Sony or MS can change whatever they want at a moment's notice.
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That said, your friends is feeding you a line. He either wasn't really there, and "heard" it from coworkers, or he's lying to you. There's no way in Hell that Sony reps are telling Gamestop employees that the PS3 will be out in November. If there was even a possibility that it would be out by then they'd be singing it from the hilltops to steal thunder away from MS and their supposed head start.
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whoa whoa whoa!!!!! this is why i am usually so worried to post comments like these. I stated that this was hearsay already... no need to get so wound up about it. I implied that it could be false, I am not going to accuse him of lying and maybe he did misunderstand something. Geez.
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I didn't mean to scare you toyfiend, but it's a message board. You can't really expect a disclaimer to preclude discussion on a topic. If I make a post that says, "My friend works for NASA and claims that we have just found intelligent aliens living in giant pyramids on the Moon -- of course, different people say and believe different things, so take this with a grain of salt," people are still going to discuss whether the claim has any merit.
I'm not wound up about it. I'm just telling you that it ain't true. Not just that the release date is inaccurate, but that Sony reps did not make that claim. They would get fired.
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There could have been a break in the chain when the info got passed along. It's very possible they meant Thansgiving 2006. I think that's a date that falls into the range of most industry expectations as well as Sony's own statements.
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hey guys i was at EB games today talking to the manager & he told me that EB games had just received final pricing & the starting price would be $499.99, guess i wont be getting one of these for while, way to high
divemaster127
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Yeah, it needs a reduction in price to the tune of $150. For a handheld system $150 is the early-adopter price. Mass market doesn't come until it hits $99. It's mostly hardcores who own a DS right now. $250 isn't close to a reasonable expectation for Sony.
I'll echo that the device is damned cool. But...
P.S. It's the "but" that's important, cos that's how everybody feels. It's not that people don't want one.
Schmokes direct quote on the Sony PSP. I assume that $499 will get the same reaction on a console. That said, I would believe slow sales are in store for Sony. If sales are slow, new games will likely come at a slower pace. Just a little mental gymnastics and you can see a possible slowdown coming.
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Heh....Nintendo made some big mistakes too. They cost Nintendo its market-leader position. Where was the bust?
Sony has competitors, ya know. Xbox will probably retail at $399, possibly even $349. Nintendo will probably release at something totally reasonable like $249.
Look, I'll admit that a bust in the videogame industry is within the realm of possibility. It just ain't that damned likely. There comes a time when a product reaches a critical mass and there's no turning back. It's like suggesting that there's going to be a bust in the TV industry just because when TV's were first introduced they went though a period where they were struggling to catch on.
The nature of hardware generations in the console industry does create a cycle that includes a slowdown in sales running up to a new console launch, but it's nothing like the bust that occurred between Atari and Nintendo. Society is just extremely damned unlikely, at this point, to up and decide that videogames aren't fun anymore. They're too entrenched. Once again, it's like suggesting that the same thing could happen to the television.
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As sure as I am that $499 is a possibility for PS3, I just don't think it will ever happen. Sony is too smart for that... they know that at that price, they are WAY too far from the average consumer price tolerance.
I'd put money down on the PS3 being delayed to 2007 before you see it at $499, but that's just my opinion.
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The nature of hardware generations in the console industry does create a cycle that includes a slowdown in sales running up to a new console launch, but it's nothing like the bust that occurred between Atari and Nintendo. Society is just extremely damned unlikely, at this point, to up and decide that videogames aren't fun anymore. They're too entrenched. Once again, it's like suggesting that the same thing could happen to the television.
I see what you are saying. I just think that unless there is some fantastic improvement from one generation console to the next, the game console will end up exactly like the TV. Likely to be replaced only when the old one breaks as opposed to as soon as next years model comes out. There will come a point of diminishing returns on new hardware development. That would be the most likely time for a bust. At this point everyone is assuming that new advancements in gaming technology are endless and that they will continually be able to roll out new and improved systems year after year. That's not likely. When that occurs how many editions of Madden are you going to buy for the same system before you've had enough?
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Now I could buy into that theory. But not yet. I still consider videogames to be in their infancy. Control systems are especially primative. I'm still waiting for a Holodeck.
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So, get a load of this. MS releases the final pricing for the Xbox 360 and looky what immediately pops up on Amazon.com:
Playstation 3=$299 (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B0009VXAM0/ref=ord_cart_shr/103-2629761-2252620?_encoding=UTF8&m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&v=glance)
This is by no means an official announcement, but it carries weight. I had a feeling that Ken Kutaragi was just trying to goad MS into releasing at a higher price with all his yammering about how expensive Playstation 3 was.
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So, get a load of this.
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I'm not wound up about it.
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So how exactly would it be that Sony reps would get fired, but it would be okay for M$ reps to not get fired? that makes no sense. and it makes perfect sense for Sony to do what they always do and play the market until the very last minute. they have always been pretty secretive about their "stuff". And if the 360 were to come out in November, it would make PERFECT sense for the PS3 to hit around there as well so as to keep up with the 360 and not lose any lead that they may already have.
No offense, but have you been reading about PS3 at all??
The PS3 will NOT be out this fall.... Sony doesn't even have the capabilities currently to provide enough dev units to studios.... let alone mass produce the system in the numbers needed for release. The Cell chip is EXTREMELY new, and they are not ready to produce it yet.
Sony can play the game all they want and use clever marketing, but stop saying the PS3 will be out this fall like the 360... it won't be. People are saying it's increasingly possible that we won't see PS3 until 2007.... how the heck are they going to make it out for Xmas '05??
They're not, that's how.
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So how exactly would it be that Sony reps would get fired, but it would be okay for M$ reps to not get fired? that makes no sense. and it makes perfect sense for Sony to do what they always do and play the market until the very last minute. they have always been pretty secretive about their "stuff". And if the 360 were to come out in November, it would make PERFECT sense for the PS3 to hit around there as well so as to keep up with the 360 and not lose any lead that they may already have.
Heh....how exactly.....LMAO. MS reps wouldn't get fired because the Xbox 360 IS[/i] going to be out in November. Playstation 3 will not be out until Spring '06 at the absolute earliest. Sony has already suggested that if the Xbox 360 isn't flying off the shelves they might just push the PS3 laungh to 2007. It might make sense to release at the same time as MS, but they can't just magically do it. They have to first mass produce millions of units. Not to mention that developers have to have development kits in order to actually make games for the system. Just how successful do you think their system would be if they actually were somehow able to produce enough units for retail by November and it released with no finished software. If they just said, "Okay everybody, buy the Playstation 3! We'll have some games ready for you within the next six months. Until then it will look great on your shelf.