How 'green' are you?

[AtomSmasher]

Apparently not. 

Since most people here haven't studied Brownian motion, special relativity, aerodynamics, plastics molding, and so on, my point remains that you have assigned those probabilities via observation, not proof. Thus, it is equally valid for me to make assertions regarding the probabilities of the weather using observations too. If you found that over time the 6-side of the die was starting to wear away and thus the resulting roles were changing, would you still cling to your personal belief that the odds of every combination was 1 in 36? Or would you instead wonder what would happen if we really did roll the dice five billion times? 

Huh, that's weird. That doesn't look like a physics "proof", but I guess we just have to take your word for it.
 

Obviously a worn down die likely wouldn't have equal odds for each side, which is probably one of the reasons why casino's usually change the dice out a few times each day.  I haven't taken one side or the other in this thread either, I just thought your example was flawed.

[jbox]

(a) the game of Craps is studied via probabilities
(b) those probabilities are estimated via observation over time
(c) weather can be observed and recorded
(d) observations over time can be used to estimate probabilities
(e) climate change can be discussed using probabilities
Thus Craps and Climate can be studied in a similar fashion. QED.

I *could* actually tell you the probabilities for the weather five days from now by taking all the recorded weather observations for that day from the last X years and calculating the odds & confidence intervals for those odds.

[jbox]

And don't forget the influence that my need for money has on the dice either.  Whether or not I can easily afford to loose the money I have on the pass line usually has a distinct effect on the outcome, if I shouldn't have bet in the first place I'm sure to loose.

What?

The above exchange is darned near hysterical

I think HarumaN captured it best:

[AtomSmasher]

(a) the game of Craps is studied via probabilities
(b) those probabilities are estimated via observation over time
(c) weather can be observed and recorded
(d) observations over time can be used to estimate probabilities
(e) climate change can be discussed using probabilities
Thus Craps and Climate can be studied in a similar fashion. QED.

I *could* actually tell you the probabilities for the weather five days from now by taking all the recorded weather observations for that day from the last X years and calculating the odds & confidence intervals for those odds.

Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.  It could be a certain day has never had a drop of rain in recorded history, so your predictions would have a 0% chance of rain, but this year a fluke rainstorm came through.  Theres a reason weather men use radar, doplar, barameters, etc. in making their predictions, but all the best technology can currently do is make rough estimates.  There are so many seemly random variables in weather patterns that making close to accurate predicitions for more then a couple days is near impossible.

[jbox]

Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.

Oh Noes!!!111!11!!1 The entire field of statistics as we know it is bunk because probability intervals are not "accurate" whenever something improbable happens! 

Pity about all those meteorological groups that use historical data in their calculation. Guess they should all call it quits since your crush on me prevents you from admitting that using the past to predict the future doesn't need to be individually precisely predictable if what you are observing happens repeatedly enough to be statistically analysed. 

And forget about planting crops this year, since the hailstorms all through Summer are just gonna be devastating! Not to mention cancelling that Spring wedding - after all, the wedding might be destroyed by a TIDAL WAVE CAUSED BY A TORNADO RUNNING INTO A SUPERNOVA!!!!1111!!111!!! 

[AtomSmasher]

Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.

Oh Noes!!!111!11!!1 The entire field of statistics as we know it is bunk because probability intervals are not "accurate" whenever something improbable happens! 

Pity about all those meteorological groups that use historical data in their calculation. Guess they should all call it quits since your crush on me prevents you from admitting that using the past to predict the future doesn't need to be individually precisely predictable if what you are observing happens repeatedly enough to be statistically analysed. 

And forget about planting crops this year, since the hailstorms all through Summer are just gonna be devastating! Not to mention cancelling that Spring wedding - after all, the wedding might be destroyed by a TIDAL WAVE CAUSED BY A TORNADO RUNNING INTO A SUPERNOVA!!!!1111!!111!!! 

wtf are you going on about?  Of course historical data isn't useless, but I doubt any of those meteorological groups base their predictions soley on historical data.  Hmm, looks like rain, wait, it's never rained on this day in the past so that can't be right.  That rain must be a figment of my imagination because historically it's supposed to be sunny today.   

[jbox]

It's not my fault you rolled a 13. 

[DrewKaree]

(a) the game of Craps is studied via probabilities
(b) those probabilities are estimated via observation over time
(c) weather can be observed and recorded
(d) observations over time can be used to estimate probabilities
(e) climate change can be discussed using probabilities
Thus Craps and Climate can be studied in a similar fashion. QED.

I *could* actually tell you the probabilities for the weather five days from now by taking all the recorded weather observations for that day from the last X years and calculating the odds & confidence intervals for those odds.

Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.  It could be a certain day has never had a drop of rain in recorded history, so your predictions would have a 0% chance of rain, but this year a fluke rainstorm came through.  Theres a reason weather men use radar, doplar, barameters, etc. in making their predictions, but all the best technology can currently do is make rough estimates.  There are so many seemly random variables in weather patterns that making close to accurate predicitions for more then a couple days is near impossible.

Kinda like a die that's been rolled for days, months, years etc  

Someone should tell Mother Nature to change her "dice" every day.

I have no stake in dice rolling other than I'm following what jbox is saying, and noticing your acceptance of the worn-edge premise but not applying it in an equal comparison.

Plus I think jbox just said I'm smrt, teh kewl, suave & dead sexy

[jbox]

Oh definitely. If texasmame put that in a poll I would vote to be spanked any day. 

edit: thought you tank-drivers would love to hear about this

[AtomSmasher]

Kinda like a die that's been rolled for days, months, years etc  

Someone should tell Mother Nature to change her "dice" every day.

I have no stake in dice rolling other than I'm following what jbox is saying, and noticing your acceptance of the worn-edge premise but not applying it in an equal comparison.

JBox's original example specifically says "a fair die" is used and it takes place in a casino. As I mentioned, casino's purposely change the die out a couple times a day with die that are perfectly balanced and weighted and are "fair", so the whole point of worn down dice is moot.

[shorthair]

And don't forget the influence that my need for money has on the dice either.  Whether or not I can easily afford to loose the money I have on the pass line usually has a distinct effect on the outcome, if I shouldn't have bet in the first place I'm sure to loose.

What?

The above exchange is darned near hysterical

WHAT?

[DrewKaree]

And don't forget the influence that my need for money has on the dice either.  Whether or not I can easily afford to loose the money I have on the pass line usually has a distinct effect on the outcome, if I shouldn't have bet in the first place I'm sure to loose.

What?

The above exchange is darned near hysterical

WHAT?

Ahomosayswhat?

[shorthair]

Check this out:

Physicists SCORE for third world
31 May 2007

A curious phenomenon responsible for the "singing" made by hot glass vessels during the glass blowing process could soon provide the world's poorest communities with everyday conveniences such as a cooker, a fridge and a generator -- all combined within one unit and powered by simple biomass fuels such as wood.

Scientists have long known that sound waves can be generated by irregularly heating a pressurized gas. Now, a new £2m project called SCORE (Stove for COoking, Refrigeration and Electricity supply) is aiming to exploit this "thermoacoustic" principle to develop an affordable and versatile wood-powered generator that will be capable of both cooking and cooling food across the developing world where access to power is severely limited.


Three in one
The project is being run by leading UK and US researchers along with the charity Practical Action, industry and universities across Africa and Asia. "Though the physical principles are well-understood and the technology has been used before to provide power sources or cooling units on satellites, there has been no research into producing a combined device that can be mass-produced at a reasonable price," said SCORE researcher Mark Johnson of the University of Nottingham.

In the planned appliance, wood is burnt beneath a gas-filled pipe containing a porous "stack" of small parallel channels. As the gas heats up, it creates a temperature gradient across the stack. This causes the gas molecules to oscillate back and forth against the channel walls, exchanging heat and producing areas of high and low gas pressure, which generate intense sound waves like a singing kettle. Then, as the gas is constantly shifting to and fro between the hot and cold sections of the pipe, it begins to "rhythmically" compress and rarefy, thus enhancing the sound waves.

These sound waves can be harnessed in a linear alternator – akin to a loudspeaker operating in reverse – which converts them into electricity. However, they can also be passed to another thermoacoustic engine working backwards to generate a cooling effect. Here, the gas effectively picks up heat from one end of the pipe, transports it, and drops it off at the other. The ensuing cool part can then be used as a refrigerator. Not surprisingly, the heat from the burning wood can also be used as a conventional cooker.

 

According to SCORE project director Paul Riley, the use of thermoacoustics avoids moving parts, which will make the device far more reliable than petrol or diesel generators. Moreover, it will produce fewer pollutants and use wood far more efficiently than open fires, which are the primary cooking method for two billion people worldwide. The target is to produce the device for a mere £15 to £20 – less than a tenth of what it currently costs to supply electricity to a rural area.

Riley and his colleagues are now recruiting researchers so the technology can be refined. They hope to produce their first prototype in 18 months, with field trials and mass distribution of the devices in target communities by the end of the five-year project.