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AtomSmasher:

--- Quote from: jbox on May 28, 2007, 01:16:17 pm ---
--- Quote from: AtomSmasher on May 28, 2007, 12:58:46 pm ---Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.

--- End quote ---
Oh Noes!!!111!11!!1 The entire field of statistics as we know it is bunk because probability intervals are not "accurate" whenever something improbable happens!  :dizzy:

Pity about all those meteorological groups that use historical data in their calculation. Guess they should all call it quits since your crush on me prevents you from admitting that using the past to predict the future doesn't need to be individually precisely predictable if what you are observing happens repeatedly enough to be statistically analysed.  ;)

And forget about planting crops this year, since the hailstorms all through Summer are just gonna be devastating! Not to mention cancelling that Spring wedding - after all, the wedding might be destroyed by a TIDAL WAVE CAUSED BY A TORNADO RUNNING INTO A SUPERNOVA!!!!1111!!111!!!  :'(

--- End quote ---
wtf are you going on about?  Of course historical data isn't useless, but I doubt any of those meteorological groups base their predictions soley on historical data.  Hmm, looks like rain, wait, it's never rained on this day in the past so that can't be right.  That rain must be a figment of my imagination because historically it's supposed to be sunny today.   ::)

jbox:
It's not my fault you rolled a 13.  :cheers:

DrewKaree:

--- Quote from: AtomSmasher on May 28, 2007, 12:58:46 pm ---
--- Quote from: jbox on May 28, 2007, 04:43:59 am ---(a) the game of Craps is studied via probabilities
(b) those probabilities are estimated via observation over time
(c) weather can be observed and recorded
(d) observations over time can be used to estimate probabilities
(e) climate change can be discussed using probabilities
Thus Craps and Climate can be studied in a similar fashion. QED.

I *could* actually tell you the probabilities for the weather five days from now by taking all the recorded weather observations for that day from the last X years and calculating the odds & confidence intervals for those odds.

--- End quote ---
Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.  It could be a certain day has never had a drop of rain in recorded history, so your predictions would have a 0% chance of rain, but this year a fluke rainstorm came through.  Theres a reason weather men use radar, doplar, barameters, etc. in making their predictions, but all the best technology can currently do is make rough estimates.  There are so many seemly random variables in weather patterns that making close to accurate predicitions for more then a couple days is near impossible.
--- End quote ---

Kinda like a die that's been rolled for days, months, years etc ;D 

Someone should tell Mother Nature to change her "dice" every day.

I have no stake in dice rolling other than I'm following what jbox is saying, and noticing your acceptance of the worn-edge premise but not applying it in an equal comparison.

Plus I think jbox just said I'm smrt, teh kewl, suave & dead sexy

jbox:
Oh definitely. If texasmame put that in a poll I would vote to be spanked any day.  >:D

edit: thought you tank-drivers would love to hear about this

AtomSmasher:

--- Quote from: DrewKaree on May 28, 2007, 01:43:20 pm ---Kinda like a die that's been rolled for days, months, years etc ;D 

Someone should tell Mother Nature to change her "dice" every day.

I have no stake in dice rolling other than I'm following what jbox is saying, and noticing your acceptance of the worn-edge premise but not applying it in an equal comparison.

--- End quote ---
JBox's original example specifically says "a fair die" is used and it takes place in a casino. As I mentioned, casino's purposely change the die out a couple times a day with die that are perfectly balanced and weighted and are "fair", so the whole point of worn down dice is moot.

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