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AtomSmasher:

--- Quote from: jbox on May 28, 2007, 04:13:23 am ---Apparently not.  :laugh2:

Since most people here haven't studied Brownian motion, special relativity, aerodynamics, plastics molding, and so on, my point remains that you have assigned those probabilities via observation, not proof. Thus, it is equally valid for me to make assertions regarding the probabilities of the weather using observations too. If you found that over time the 6-side of the die was starting to wear away and thus the resulting roles were changing, would you still cling to your personal belief that the odds of every combination was 1 in 36? Or would you instead wonder what would happen if we really did roll the dice five billion times?  :dunno

--- End quote ---
Huh, that's weird. That doesn't look like a physics "proof", but I guess we just have to take your word for it.
 ;D

Obviously a worn down die likely wouldn't have equal odds for each side, which is probably one of the reasons why casino's usually change the dice out a few times each day.  I haven't taken one side or the other in this thread either, I just thought your example was flawed.

jbox:
(a) the game of Craps is studied via probabilities
(b) those probabilities are estimated via observation over time
(c) weather can be observed and recorded
(d) observations over time can be used to estimate probabilities
(e) climate change can be discussed using probabilities
Thus Craps and Climate can be studied in a similar fashion. QED.

I *could* actually tell you the probabilities for the weather five days from now by taking all the recorded weather observations for that day from the last X years and calculating the odds & confidence intervals for those odds.

jbox:

--- Quote from: DrewKaree on May 28, 2007, 03:31:02 am ---
--- Quote from: shorthair on May 28, 2007, 01:54:41 am ---
--- Quote from: bfauska on May 27, 2007, 11:03:59 pm ---And don't forget the influence that my need for money has on the dice either.  Whether or not I can easily afford to loose the money I have on the pass line usually has a distinct effect on the outcome, if I shouldn't have bet in the first place I'm sure to loose.

--- End quote ---
What?

--- End quote ---
The above exchange is darned near hysterical :laugh2: :laugh2:

--- End quote ---
I think HarumaN captured it best:

AtomSmasher:

--- Quote from: jbox on May 28, 2007, 04:43:59 am ---(a) the game of Craps is studied via probabilities
(b) those probabilities are estimated via observation over time
(c) weather can be observed and recorded
(d) observations over time can be used to estimate probabilities
(e) climate change can be discussed using probabilities
Thus Craps and Climate can be studied in a similar fashion. QED.

I *could* actually tell you the probabilities for the weather five days from now by taking all the recorded weather observations for that day from the last X years and calculating the odds & confidence intervals for those odds.

--- End quote ---
Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.  It could be a certain day has never had a drop of rain in recorded history, so your predictions would have a 0% chance of rain, but this year a fluke rainstorm came through.  Theres a reason weather men use radar, doplar, barameters, etc. in making their predictions, but all the best technology can currently do is make rough estimates.  There are so many seemly random variables in weather patterns that making close to accurate predicitions for more then a couple days is near impossible.

jbox:

--- Quote from: AtomSmasher on May 28, 2007, 12:58:46 pm ---Sure you could, but that doesn't mean they'll be in the slightest bit accurate.

--- End quote ---
Oh Noes!!!111!11!!1 The entire field of statistics as we know it is bunk because probability intervals are not "accurate" whenever something improbable happens!  :dizzy:

Pity about all those meteorological groups that use historical data in their calculation. Guess they should all call it quits since your crush on me prevents you from admitting that using the past to predict the future doesn't need to be individually precisely predictable if what you are observing happens repeatedly enough to be statistically analysed.  ;)

And forget about planting crops this year, since the hailstorms all through Summer are just gonna be devastating! Not to mention cancelling that Spring wedding - after all, the wedding might be destroyed by a TIDAL WAVE CAUSED BY A TORNADO RUNNING INTO A SUPERNOVA!!!!1111!!111!!!  :'(

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