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Author Topic: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto  (Read 2932 times)

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RandyT

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GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« on: May 23, 2023, 01:44:51 pm »
It looks like AMD and Intel will have an opportunity to get a bigger chunk of the GPU market, as the brunt of AI applications are designed to use Nvidia's architecture.  All they need to do is get the bang-for-buck of their products back up to a reasonable level, and either one of them could establish themselves as the new king of the strictly-gamer GPU market.  The problem is that the GPU manufacturers tend to establish their pricing based on what others in the market have set. So, AMD may be missing an opportunity while Nvidia is apparently pricing their technologies for the demand being created by the AI markets, of which AMD is not currently a significant part. 

In light of the current glut of over-priced consumer GPUs on store shelves, the AMD situation should resolve itself.  But I don't expect Nvidia to buckle significantly on their pricing, so long as demand continues on the AI front.  After all, why would they kill themselves to produce massive numbers of mid-range consumer cards with razor-thin profit margins, especially when production capacities may still be somewhat limited, and the die-hard gamer types have shown that they will spend nearly anything to get the latest high-end GPUs?

AI isn't going away any time soon, at least in my view and in the view of almost anyone else who has been paying attention, so the only thing which will eventually bring the GPU prices back to sanity will be specialized AI processing hardware, which can go head-to-head with Nvidia's technology.  But that could still be a ways off in the future.  So I guess the gamers out there with shallow pockets should be rooting for the success of AMD at the moment, because they don't appear to be getting much love recently from Nvidia.

Anyone else see the current market this way?
« Last Edit: May 23, 2023, 02:16:29 pm by RandyT »

lilshawn

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2023, 02:54:58 pm »
honestly on a consumer level, AI is not really setup for what we all have going on. chatGPT was trained on 10,000 GPU's... not even close to anything any of us can muster. even 99% of cryptofarms don't push like that...  but then, once it's training is done... it needn't that horsepower anymore.

as for AI art, sure... you need some power for rendering, but not 10k gpus worth unless you want it instantly. but your run of the mill 1600 series and up GPU's will be more than sufficient for the layperson dicking around with AI art.

AI in this case stands for "Artificial Inflation" and they are just looking for the next crypto inflation bubble so they can get 10x MSRP for cards again cause that was friggin SWEET.

my 2 cents (0.5 cents after taxes)

RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2023, 03:28:17 pm »
honestly on a consumer level, AI is not really setup for what we all have going on. chatGPT was trained on 10,000 GPU's... not even close to anything any of us can muster. even 99% of cryptofarms don't push like that...  but then, once it's training is done... it needn't that horsepower anymore.

That's correct, in theory.  However, it appears that currently, that's where the money is for AI.  For an LLM to be extremely effective, it needs to be trained on specific data for a specific application, and that data needs to be curated and a new specialized model created.  The big players have already jumped into the pool, and others will follow (or have started already.)  There are also more and more graphic (movie, static images, etc) and sound technologies which require this.  It's not uncommon for the people who do this seriously (i.e. for money) to have an AI image generation farm, similar to those which were used in mining.  I suspect the newer sound/voice technologies will need something similar.

In the age of AI customer service, a "farm" will be necessary to generate responses using the pre-trained models.  The larger the number of "virtual representatives", the larger the farm necessary to generate real-time responses with AI voice generation.

What we are seeing now is just scratching the surface of where it's going.  It wouldn't surprise me to see "AI appliances", akin to a specialized wireless router, being marketed to homes within the next 10 years.  I.e. something like an intelligent box where all the hardware lives that does the heavy lifting, sending and receiving instructions from AI-enabled devices in the home.

lilshawn

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2023, 05:22:46 pm »
something like an intelligent box where all the hardware lives that does the heavy lifting, sending and receiving instructions from AI-enabled devices in the home.


I could see in the future an ASIC processor appliance (like the antminer crypto boxes) being used as the main AI processor in the household. an antminer doe anywhere from 3 to 30 terahashes a second of  crypto... plenty to get an instant response from pre-trained data... that can continously autotrain itself on the fly in it's "off time"

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2023, 12:08:06 am »
I upgraded everyone to RX 580's a little while back.
we should be set for a while.
our last cards were gtx 960 level. lol.


RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2023, 08:49:49 am »
I could see in the future an ASIC processor appliance (like the antminer crypto boxes) being used as the main AI processor in the household. an antminer doe anywhere from 3 to 30 terahashes a second of  crypto... plenty to get an instant response from pre-trained data... that can continously autotrain itself on the fly in it's "off time"

That's exactly the kind of thing which I believe will be necessary to take the pressure off of the gaming card market.  There are companies currently working on specialized AI hardware, but unfortunately, just like with crypto, there will still be a space below the level of that specialized hardware where I feel that the smaller commercial interests, smaller academic institutions and AI enthusiasts will be acting to help keep prices elevated on cards which can be leveraged for AI.  At least for a while, until that technology becomes mainstream.

fallacy

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2023, 01:19:58 pm »
I don't really get why graphic cards are still so high. It made perfect sense with the crypto boom. I mean you could pay 3 times as much to a scalper and then through crypto still have the card pay itself off. I would stay away from the 4000 series of cards like the plague. People make it sound like there is some big generation to generation leap and there is not. More than half of the 4000 series is slower than the 3000 series and even worse they don't have any more VRAM than the 3000 series. There are enough cards floating around out there to get a good deal on a 3000 series that's still faster than 4060 through a 4070 Ti.

pbj

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2023, 05:36:32 pm »
If AI is the new crypto does that mean some idiot on this forum is going to invest his life savings in it and tell us how dumb we are?

If so, please proceed.  It's amusing.


RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2023, 07:58:44 am »
I don't really get why graphic cards are still so high. It made perfect sense with the crypto boom. I mean you could pay 3 times as much to a scalper and then through crypto still have the card pay itself off. I would stay away from the 4000 series of cards like the plague. People make it sound like there is some big generation to generation leap and there is not. More than half of the 4000 series is slower than the 3000 series and even worse they don't have any more VRAM than the 3000 series.

Like I stated, Nividia knows that there is commercial demand for what is likely limited production capacity and they have also been taught that "Billy Streamer" or "Johnny Parentscreditcard" will pay any price for the latest and greatest.  I believe that is it in a nutshell.

Quote
There are enough cards floating around out there to get a good deal on a 3000 series that's still faster than 4060 through a 4070 Ti.

The only hitch there is that the minimal performance gains of the new cards are causing the last gen to retain more value than they likely would have otherwise.  Deals can be had, but it takes some looking. The power requirement is one of the biggest differences, but since under-volting is a thing, most cards can come pretty close to the same power requirements without a performance hit, if done correctly.

I also see that AMD just dropped the price on the lower end cards, so they may be starting to make their play.

If AI is the new crypto does that mean some idiot on this forum is going to invest his life savings in it and tell us how dumb we are?

AI is moving so fast, the water never stops churning.  I'm not a Tesla fanboy, but they seem to be doing the smart thing and waiting it out a bit.  Their AI is real-world application (things with physical interaction) so they are waiting in the wings for that part to be more widely implemented.  On the data side, things could change so quickly, it could render 6 month deployed tech to become obsolete.  I wouldn't put a nickel into it until the dust starts to clear, and if I did, it would be invested in companies which specialize in tailoring models to specific applications, and/or those who are nimble enough to transition easily should the current tech get turned on it's head (<== not financial advice!)
« Last Edit: May 25, 2023, 08:15:09 am by RandyT »

schmerzkaufen

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2023, 10:57:34 am »
Me when I hear about AI:


But yeah agreed with your logic, as long as there's markets with enough buyers to pay more than before, why would they bother with keeping volumes high and margins low ?

Successive and combined global crises sort of reminded capitalism of the good old times when it had only like less than 10% or 5% of ppl rich-enough to consume by themselves everything that's beyond minimum-vital, without much consideration for whatever things cost.
Mass-consumption model was only an option, not a compulsory requirement to a working capitalist economy and society.

So IMO GPU prices - like all things tech and most products that aren't bottom-end garbage - aren't going down any significantly anymore, or maybe in a rather distant future if - I don't know by what manner of miracles - the global economic health and distribution of wealth improves to compare again to post wwII-to-early21c standards.

GPUs, good ones, have become luxury-tier (not high luxury but still).

RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2023, 01:41:46 pm »
Nvidia stock price spiked 27% yesterday based on AI, with still weak GPU sales.  Looks like others have picked up on this as well.

fallacy

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2023, 05:44:07 pm »
I have a Tec ETF that just shot up today… Nvidia is a part of it, I was like screw it I am selling the entire thing and taking my 50 grand in profit. If it drops back down 15% or so I will buy back in. It always does that, everyone is all talking about a recession around the corner so of course that means your stock is going to shoot up.

pbj

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2023, 05:57:12 pm »
I asked some AI thing to tell me a story about an aging 90s super model doing horrible things for $50….

And got a story about “Samantha” getting a gig modeling adult diapers and leaning into it.

Y’all enjoy your AI.

lilshawn

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2023, 08:03:09 pm »
That's what you get for using public trained AI. gotta hit up that private stash, ifn' ya' know what I mean.

RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2023, 11:29:14 am »
I have a Tec ETF that just shot up today… Nvidia is a part of it, I was like screw it I am selling the entire thing and taking my 50 grand in profit. If it drops back down 15% or so I will buy back in. It always does that, everyone is all talking about a recession around the corner so of course that means your stock is going to shoot up.

Some are speculating that Nvidia will become one of the biggest companies in the world, due to AI.  Personally, I have my doubts.  Increased demand means increased competition from other companies.  When you can get them, the special GPU boards from Nvidia are right around 8K retail, and much more now due to the demand.  That's a pretty shiny brass ring for other companies and investors to want to take a swipe at.  The real question at the moment is how competitive they will be able to be with their technology once the specialized AI number cruncher IC's start making their way to market and the methods advance to the point that the AI can be trained on a cell phone.

There will likely always be a market for the GPU side of things for them to fall back to, so Nvidia will try not to poop too many times in that swimming pool.  They already took the somewhat unexpected step of reducing prices on the 3000 series cards, but not really enough to make them attractive at the moment.  The only outlier might be the 3060 12gb version at ~$280, which is a decent 1080-1440p card with enough VRAM for some AI tinkering.  But I expect that value to be short lived when/if the 16gb 4000 variants get closer to that price point.  If I were to speculate, I get the impression that the stale sales of the 4000 series, and AMD barking at their heels, has them with a projected timeline for dropping the prices on the 4000 series GPUs, but before they do that, they need to clear the 3000 series stock from the shelves so as not to take a beating on them.  Regardless of what the future brings, the 3000 series price drops are an indicator that they are still concerned about their market share in gaming, as they should be given what may be a short run in the longer AI game.

fallacy

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2023, 01:50:39 pm »
The 4000 series is a complete bust, the price to performance just is not there. It Feels like the graphic card market is like buying a new car, you just need to look on the used market for a deal. You can always buy a new AMD card  :puke

schmerzkaufen

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2023, 02:36:25 pm »
B-but 'AI' frame generation  ;D

I am actually interested in that feature, but that would be for emulation if emulators would start taking advantage of it (simulated CRT motion resolution on normal flat panels? potentially awesome except maybe the lag part).

I'd love to own a 4090 but I also kinda want to keep all of my organs.

Anyway I can't even begin to imagine the landscape in 10 years, either nVidia control the bulk of the 'AI GPUs' and become the new megacorp buying countries for lunch, or most if every one of those giant businesses and all the techs we know today in the physical realm...will be gone, replaced by giant AI-corp nodes playing a sick game of WW3 with all of humanity as their pawns.

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2023, 09:03:04 am »
That's what you get for using public trained AI. gotta hit up that private stash, ifn' ya' know what I mean.

now i'm imagining all the AI's hanging out like in Altered Carbon.
the private one's in the back room doing back room things while the public ones play poker.

lilshawn

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2023, 10:43:20 am »
Some are speculating that Nvidia will become one of the biggest companies in the world, due to AI.  Personally, I have my doubts.


judged by the hardware i saw on the last LTT video i saw, (as grating as he is) it could very well be...



sems nvidia has shifted its focus a bit... which is why perhaps the development of their gpus have kind of stalled. coughcoughtiversiononly10percentbettercoughcough

RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #19 on: May 30, 2023, 03:03:34 pm »
sems nvidia has shifted its focus a bit... which is why perhaps the development of their gpus have kind of stalled. coughcoughtiversiononly10percentbettercoughcough

Nvidia has never really been a "gaming gpu" focused company.  They do it really well and it helps to fund the technology, but they have always catered first and foremost to business applications.  Gamers get the stripped down stuff, so it doesn't eat into the high dollar market significantly.  I guess they didn't want to buy ARM to make gaming GPU's, but everyone knew that.

That is an interesting offering. I guess it remains to be seen how well it's accepted in the marketplace and how many gigadollars one of those boxes will cost at the time of deployment.  But I also saw a fairly well-reasoned argument for Nvidia's climb to be short lived.  The growth and circumstances are extremely similar to what Cisco experienced at the dawn of the Internet bubble.  Everyone figured they were unstoppable because they were well established in the driving technologies of Internet.  While they had a good couple of years, their stock eventually tanked when more competition arose, and they no longer had a significant stranglehold on the technology.  This situation doesn't appear to be significantly dissimilar, unless you believe that only Nvidia is able to pull it off at scale.

« Last Edit: June 02, 2023, 08:01:04 am by RandyT »

fallacy

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2023, 11:56:07 am »
I knew that at the start of 2023 that AI was going to be the new buzz  word for the year. Kind of like .com was or Block Chain.

Does your toaster have some of that AI in it to make it better?

Just watch this funny ass video, I don't think Nvidia is going to be any kind of AI future. Sounds like they are just trying to make some money off the Buzz word this year.


RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2023, 02:23:40 pm »
Here's some of that competition I talked about earlier, which could take the pressure (and profits) off from Nvidia.  Per the company, their tech is Pytorch (Nvidia application) compatible, scalable with with no code rewrites, 50x to 200x faster, has considerably lower power consumption and has similar large-scale deployment costs.  While this won't directly impact the requirements of smaller organizations with the need for in-house solutions, the company is embarking on multiple AI data centers in the US, and the increases in efficiency could result in lower computational costs for organizations who use remote processing.  This isn't a "pie-in-the-sky" theoretical endeavor either.  Apparently their tech has already been deployed in the UAE.



nitrogen_widget

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2023, 09:27:00 pm »
So i've read AI has been using copywrited material uploaded to the internet to help itself along and now those authors are filing against it.
will that set AI back a bit should the copywrite laws be enforced?

RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2023, 01:08:06 pm »
So i've read AI has been using copywrited material uploaded to the internet to help itself along and now those authors are filing against it.
will that set AI back a bit should the copywrite laws be enforced?

IANAL, but in my view, virtually every bit of knowledge and inspiration that anyone on the planet currently possesses, is the result of exposure to the works of others who built upon the work of those before them.  AI is "standing upon the the shoulders of giants", just as we do.

If those at the copyright office have done any research, they will understand that AI models are not just an elaborate compression scheme and any works to which the AI was exposed, are not copied verbatim into the resulting models and as such, should be covered by "fair use".  If the model is "guilty" of anything, it is the act of "reading" the work a number of times and learning from it as a human might, possibly without compensating the author for doing so.  If I were on a jury, I would view the damage amount to be limited to the purchase of exactly one copy of the book, if it was a work not allowed to be freely readable on the Internet.  If that work was obtained from a public library, I'm not so sure even that wouldn't be excessive.

However, anything which it generates could have infringing elements of which the end user should be cautious.  For example, it could instruct someone on how to build a patented invention and that, in and of itself, is not infringing activity.  But if that same user does not do their due diligence to see if such a thing is already a patented invention, they would likely find themselves with a problem if they attempted to market it.  On the same note, one could describe to Stable Diffusion a painting by a specific artist, and then note that artist in the prompt to get a very similar, if not nearly identical work.  Obviously, it's likely that the artist would find that to be an infringement.  However, if I am to understand current law, after a certain percentage of change, it is no longer considered to be an infringing work, even if a layperson might incorrectly conclude it was created by the same artist, as art styles are "borrowed" regularly and often by human artists.

But given that the patent office almost regularly accepts applications which flout the laws of physics, it may be asking too much for sane thinking to prevail at similarly situated agencies. 

At the end of the day, AI on it's own is not specifically tied to any specific data.  In fact, most of what makes it attractive to corporate interests is the ability for it to expound upon private data sets relating specifically to whatever that company is looking to achieve.  Also, educational institutions have virtually free-reign when it comes to matters of copyright, so the demand from that sector would also be mostly unaffected.  And finally, with Meta releasing their models into the public domain, they have let the proverbial "genie" out of it's bottle.  So regardless of what happens next, the technology will continue to grow and become more useful to individuals.  There are literally thousands of fine-tuned derivatives in the wild and more being created (and released) every day.

Tl/dr: No matter what happens by decree, the demand for AI-capable hardware will not slow down.  Only new technology which surpasses the abilities of current GPU technology will slow the demand for graphics cards...and companies are tripping over themselves to create it.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2023, 01:46:18 pm by RandyT »

lilshawn

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2023, 01:51:09 pm »
someone has copyrighted 70 some-odd billions of note sequences. does that mean music is dead?


RandyT

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Re: GPU Prices: AI is the new Crypto
« Reply #25 on: September 25, 2023, 12:36:07 pm »
someone has copyrighted 70 some-odd billions of note sequences. does that mean music is dead?

Probably not.  In reality, this guy really did little more than waste his time and money to do it, because it doesn't prove his point given the recent ruling from the copyright office that machine generated compositions are not protected.  I.e. they say that a work must be created by a human to enjoy copyright protection.