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Author Topic: Stock Market  (Read 16152 times)

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Gilrock

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #40 on: May 13, 2021, 09:37:32 am »
I'm limited in my 401K so I can only buy indexes, mutual funds, and ETFs.  I've tried many different things and the best strategy always seems to come down to I would have made the most money by just sticking it all in the S&P500 and quit watching the market.  I deviated from that for awhile and thought I was doing better because I was 5% above the S&P after 6 months and then last few months things swung the other way.  I feel like people add a lot of stress to their like watching the market every day and then most of them can't even beat the S&P500 including a lot of the financial experts.  I know some of you will claim you do but for every one that beats it there are a 100 that don't.

Zebidee

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #41 on: May 13, 2021, 02:09:44 pm »
I'm limited in my 401K so I can only buy indexes, mutual funds, and ETFs.  I've tried many different things and the best strategy always seems to come down to I would have made the most money by just sticking it all in the S&P500 and quit watching the market.  I deviated from that for awhile and thought I was doing better because I was 5% above the S&P after 6 months and then last few months things swung the other way.  I feel like people add a lot of stress to their like watching the market every day and then most of them can't even beat the S&P500 including a lot of the financial experts.  I know some of you will claim you do but for every one that beats it there are a 100 that don't.

Given your restrictions, I can see why you found it hard to make any money. Indexes, mutual funds and ETFs are not going to perform much differently to the S&P500 (which is itself an index).

I have made good money on stock markets before, but only by being active, investing in undervalued companies and treating it like a part time job. I've invested in a bunch of speculative stuff, but every time I've made real money, like double/triple/quadruple my money within 2-3 years, it has always been with mid to top tier companies that were boring but undervalued. An oil refiner. A miner. A fruit cannery. A grocery retailer. Nothing fancy. Researching and doing due-diligence on these guys, then waiting for right opportunities to buy in, can take months or longer.

I've lost money too of course, but the trick with losing stocks is to establish strict rules, where you get out fast once they prove themselves to be mongrels. Bite the bullet, wear the pain, sell and limit your losses. I actually set the sell (stop-loss) orders to execute automatically if price drops too much, so I don't even have to think about it.

However, if they turn out to be greyhounds, let them run and watch for opportunities to buy in some more. If they go up a lot (past the target you set originally) then sell some to lock in profits. Now you have cash in pocket. If the price then goes down later but you still believe in the fundamentals, look for the right chance to buy back in at the cheaper price. Or look for some other opportunity.

Having said all that, I haven't been active trading for some time now. It is hard work and and time consuming. I haven't bought or sold anything since sometime well before COVID, too busy tinkering with my arcade and greenantz stuff to give it the attention it deserves (demands). All my current investments are parked in blue-chip buy-hold stocks so no need to worry about them on a daily basis.

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Gilrock

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #42 on: May 13, 2021, 03:11:08 pm »
I basically made bad decisions in my early years and found myself at 44 with nothing for retirement.  Since then I've gone from $0 to $700K in 11 years.  I've been very aggressive putting usually 100% in stocks.  Now I'm about to turn 55 so I'm wanting to know where to shift some of that money to reduce the risk but not totally destroy it earning anything.  From my 401K restrictions a friend suggested one called TIP.  I believe its a Treasury bond ETF.

Mike A

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #43 on: May 13, 2021, 03:18:14 pm »
You guys should invest in this hot stock tip.

MIKE.

I can give you the PayPal information to invest.
It is a very exclusive invitation.

Gilrock

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #44 on: May 13, 2021, 03:25:56 pm »
Can we review MIKE's business plan? :)

Mike A

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #45 on: May 13, 2021, 03:38:51 pm »
It will all go into my arcade room and shop which I always offer to our community here for free.

It is a charitable organization.

yotsuya

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #46 on: May 13, 2021, 03:54:53 pm »



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Zebidee

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #47 on: May 14, 2021, 12:27:44 am »
I basically made bad decisions in my early years and found myself at 44 with nothing for retirement.  Since then I've gone from $0 to $700K in 11 years.  I've been very aggressive putting usually 100% in stocks.  Now I'm about to turn 55 so I'm wanting to know where to shift some of that money to reduce the risk but not totally destroy it earning anything.  From my 401K restrictions a friend suggested one called TIP.  I believe its a Treasury bond ETF.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Bonds that have their value linked to inflation. Not a bad idea if you want to hedge against inflation (a very real possibility given all the unanticipated economic growth/activity going on while supply chains are stretched thin and many inputs are still scarce) and stock markets crashing, but you won't get any "growth".

All eyes are on wages growth as a leading indicator for inflation, which will then flow on to rising interest rates, which would then choke investment capital off and make a lot of people worry about their investments (e.g. companies that carry a lot of debt) and return on capital. Wages will have to go up sooner or later because wages growth has been very slow for long time. Caveat here is that unemployment is now being driven to new lows so that might keep wages in check for a bit longer by pumping more supply into the labour market.
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danny_galaga

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #48 on: May 14, 2021, 05:13:17 am »
Definitely no derivatives of any sort for me. And no leveraging. Just what I can put away. Mind you, I am thinking of buying a bit of Bitcoin and etherium, which for all intents and purposes is a derivative- that is, not a commodity. A friend has been trading for a number of years so aim getting learned up from him.

Safer.

Don't learn just from your friend, even if they are wise. While I'm sure you'll learn things from them, you'll also pickup their bad habits (we all have them). Grab a few good books on share trading and investing, and if you want to be an active trader get at least one on trading to charting signals. Charting is a good way to pick up on short-medium term price trends, though there are a few caveats to that. You can mostly ignore charting if you are a longer term fundamentals buy-and-hold investor.

Whatever you do, develop an investment strategy and trading plan that works for you *and follow it*. It is your precious money so protect your capital by diversifying your investments across different sectors and markets. Decide what proportion you want to actively "play" with for short-term & speculative trading and stick to it (I would keep this relatively quite small). Continuously adapt your trading plan as needed but follow the plan, let it tell you what to do. Avoid making decisions "on the fly", while the numbers are whooshing past you - it doesn't work as emotions will override good sense.

Oh I've been buying and selling shares for about twenty years. I think I may have even introduced my Bitcoin buying friend to share trading in the first place  ;D

He's a lot smarter than me so I trust his advice.


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Zebidee

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #49 on: May 14, 2021, 07:16:34 am »
Bitcoin transactions burn heaps of power, globally equivalent to a not-so-small country. There are much more energy-efficient alternatives. Something to think about as we strive to save the planet.
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danny_galaga

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #50 on: May 17, 2021, 06:45:24 pm »
Bitcoin transactions burn heaps of power, globally equivalent to a not-so-small country. There are much more energy-efficient alternatives. Something to think about as we strive to save the planet.

That is a good point. I guess I can rationalise by thinking about the fact if I invest, is a secondary market. Most of the movements are for Bitcoins that have already been mined.


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bobbyb13

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #51 on: May 17, 2021, 07:43:54 pm »
Bitcoin transactions burn heaps of power, globally equivalent to a not-so-small country. There are much more energy-efficient alternatives. Something to think about as we strive to save the planet.

Now if one could use solar power to charge a hydrogen cell and then set up a mining operation around that...
 :lol
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Zebidee

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #52 on: May 17, 2021, 08:45:47 pm »
Bitcoin transactions burn heaps of power, globally equivalent to a not-so-small country. There are much more energy-efficient alternatives. Something to think about as we strive to save the planet.

Now if one could use solar power to charge a hydrogen cell and then set up a mining operation around that...
 :lol

Mining creates bitcoins by processing transactions, so it is all the same thing. Mining increases the money supply meaning more transactions, and the bitcoin you mine today is traded tomorrow on a random mining operation that may be powered by non-renewables. So there is no escape unless the whole planet moves to renewables. Even then it doesn't address the fact that bitcoin transactions are very energy inefficient compared to other digital currencies like dogecoin even. All that power costs real money.

Elon Musk has been making headlines recently for refusing to trade/accept bitcoin anymore. According to the blurb, Dogecoin in particular uses less energy per transaction than bitcoin because the calculations used to mine coins are less complex. The difference is enormous, with bitcoin requiring a staggering 707 kilowatt hours for each payment and Dogecoin requiring just 0.12

Can't ignore numbers like that, good reason to think twice or more about bitcoin and save the planet.
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bobbyb13

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #53 on: May 18, 2021, 02:44:03 am »
Holy crap!

Wasn't aware of that differential.

Yeesh....

Apart from arcade machinery I'm leaning toward full Luddite myself lately.
I've had enough of all this crap.

I want to trade eggs and tilapia for avocados and beef
 :laugh2:
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fallacy

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #54 on: May 18, 2021, 08:42:12 am »
bitcoins not going anywhere because it is bitcoin. It might be crashing right now. If it drops below 35,000 I would say start buying with any money you can afford. Feel like 30,000 is going to be its new hold price. Since I said 30,000 is its new hold price it probably wont go below 33,000 or something because the market never wants to be predictable like that.

Mike A

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #55 on: May 19, 2021, 08:18:21 am »
Not one payment to my fund yet...disappointing.

Maybe I need Elon Musk to fart and mention my fund.

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #56 on: May 19, 2021, 10:09:29 am »
I think this freefall was caused by the news yesterday that the pipeline hackers supposedly received 90 million in bitcoin ransoms.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/colonial-pipeline-hackers-darkside-received-90-million-in-bitcoin.html

Think of it what you will, but the inability to control the currency and identify it's owner is the excuse needed to put bitcoin in government crosshairs, which I would say is bitcoin's biggest existential threat, being bureaucrated to death.

fallacy

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #57 on: May 19, 2021, 10:29:15 am »
That was my quickest prediction turnaround it was hovering around 44,000 when i posted that looked this morning and now bitcoin is already at 35,500

Gilrock

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #58 on: May 19, 2021, 10:30:59 am »
I think this freefall was caused by the news yesterday that the pipeline hackers supposedly received 90 million in bitcoin ransoms.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/colonial-pipeline-hackers-darkside-received-90-million-in-bitcoin.html

Think of it what you will, but the inability to control the currency and identify it's owner is the excuse needed to put bitcoin in government crosshairs, which I would say is bitcoin's biggest existential threat, being bureaucrated to death.

Funny this is exactly the storyline in a show called "Startup" I've been watching on Netflix.

Zebidee

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #59 on: May 19, 2021, 06:41:35 pm »
Funny this is exactly the storyline in a show called "Startup" I've been watching on Netflix.

I'll look for it. Always interested in these things. 

EDIT: Seen preview, looks more like a crime thriller than how to make a business work. Stars Hobbit guy, looks like fun.
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danny_galaga

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #60 on: May 19, 2021, 09:17:09 pm »
Just saw the news about Chinese central bank statement. Sometimes it pays for me to drag my feet 😂


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Gilrock

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #61 on: May 20, 2021, 08:58:24 am »
Funny this is exactly the storyline in a show called "Startup" I've been watching on Netflix.

I'll look for it. Always interested in these things. 

EDIT: Seen preview, looks more like a crime thriller than how to make a business work. Stars Hobbit guy, looks like fun.

Yep you're right.  It just sounded familiar to what we were talking about.  Season 1 they create a cryptocurrency.  Season 2 they create a network to facilitate privacy in business transactions.  Then the NSA gets involved and wants visibility into the system to combat crime which goes against their whole principle of being a neutral network with ultimate privacy.  Don't watch around the kids there is a ton of sex although they really don't show much skin.

fallacy

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #62 on: May 23, 2021, 11:15:41 am »
Well I just put 5 grand in bitcoin at 34,000. I feel comfortable investing into crypto at the price. I don't feel in my heart it will go lower than 30,000 at least not for long.

Zebidee

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #63 on: May 23, 2021, 01:13:34 pm »
You were prudent to wait for price to drop to old support levels. Good luck I hope it works out.

I'm always wary of buying into something if even the taxi drivers are talking about it.
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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #64 on: May 23, 2021, 02:25:09 pm »
Thanks!

More awareness, more future growth and support! Can you imagine the day the first few women can wrap their head around crypto currency and invest into it! To the moon! Just kidding… but not really.

Mike A

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #65 on: February 17, 2022, 11:24:37 am »
If you can't pour kerosene on 10 grand and burn it, then you shouldn't bother.

You would be better off doing something else with your money.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2022, 11:41:10 am by Mike A »

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #66 on: April 16, 2022, 05:46:49 am »
I've been using shares for over 20 years. Not an expert by any means, or even rich from it, but I'm comfortable with buying and selling ordinary shares


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Zebidee

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #67 on: April 16, 2022, 01:35:21 pm »
x.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2022, 01:57:39 pm by Zebidee »
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fallacy

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #68 on: April 29, 2022, 12:47:31 pm »
Today was S&P 500 ETF buying day. What had happened is that I had an old 401k with around 300k sitting in my Fidelity account invested into the S&P 500 that came with that account . For whatever reason they decided to move this account to another firm without telling me so that really pissed me off. I wanted it back in Fidelity so I called the other place and gave them my account number to my Rollover IRA and my Roth IRA with Fidelity. For some reason they said you had to wait a week before they could initiate the trade, the reason why I called them that day was because it was at a high. So I waited a week, sure enough the stock dropped, now my 300k is about 282k if I were to sell it then to bring it over to Fidelity. I was just going to have to wait and let it get to at least 300k again before I sold. Few more weeks later it got back up, I called them back and had them sell it at 302k.

Now usually I would say never try to time the market, you never know the good buying and selling days and you usually end up losing money half the time. This time as I was waiting for my money to get to Fidelity something seemed wrong with the market, the sentiment seemed bearish. So I was like there is no rush to buy back in, let me see how this plays out. I waited a few weeks watched the stock prices drop by a few points here and there, this last week it took a massive dip. Checking the charts the S&P is now where it was at mid 2021. I will take my 23% on 300k win and bought back into the  S&P 500.

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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #69 on: April 29, 2022, 10:34:23 pm »
Congratulations on having a careful eye on the market.

Trends and market sentiments are real things, and with some knowledge you can pick them. Especially for market indices like S&P500 where it is more difficult to get shaken out by pro day-traders. It will always have dips and peaks, but they will rarely go beyond certain predicable limits. There is a whole charting pseudo-science to help you pick these, and although is sometimes seems like hocus-pocus it actually works because of the human psychology factor.

Over longer period S&P500 will continue to trend upwards, so in a way it doesn't matter when you buy in, but I say to hell with that. If you can save yourself $20k by buying smarter then do it :D
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Re: Stock Market
« Reply #70 on: April 30, 2022, 12:41:09 am »
Thanks I think I locked in closer to $35k on that play.