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| fallacy:
Noob, if he thought that way he would have already sold long ago. He will sell when he can think of a better investment to put that money into. |
| Zebidee:
--- Quote from: fallacy on May 10, 2021, 10:49:23 am ---Noob, if he thought that way he would have already sold long ago. He will sell when he can think of a better investment to put that money into. --- End quote --- That's not how it works if you actually want to make money from investing. I'm not saying that "long-term hold" isn't a valid strategy, but it isn't one to apply to highly speculative stocks like bitcoin. Risk management: A good strategy would be to minimise future risk and to lock in gains already made by selling a portion at either a pre-determined profit level, or once it has fallen a certain level from a peak (tip: you can do both with provisional stop-loss orders!). Managing your risk is the most important thing when investing, and once you have made a paper-profit you are at risk of losing it. So lock it in by selling some. If you still believe in bitcoin, you can buy back in later when you think the price has fallen enough and an upward trend is starting. Another reason to sell some is that highly speculative stocks should make up a quite small proportion of your portfolio. The exact proportion is up to you, but my point is that if Bitcoin has gone up dramatically, an initially small proportion is now a relatively large proportion of your total portfolio. If something happens to it, you'll be hit hard. So again, de-risk yourself by selling some to bring your portfolio balance back into line. If you don't care about portfolio balancing then you don't care about risk, and you are just gambling. May as well head off to Vegas. In general you shouldn't sell something just so that you can buy something else. That's because the best times to sell and buy rarely coincide. Rising tides lift all boats, and rising markets lift all stocks. The time to sell is usually when the markets are up, and the time to buy is usually when they are down. It is therefore good practice to be disciplined with your buying and selling decisions, don't link them directly together because you set yourself up for selling and buying at the wrong times for the wrong reasons. Might sound funny but when the GFC hit, my first thought wasn't "OMG my stocks have lost all their value!", it was "damn, I don't have enough cash to take advantage of the bargains". If only I'd sold some stuff earlier at "fair value", made some more cash available, I could've made a killing on undervalued stocks. But selling into a depressed market to get money to buy stuff with is crazy. The best times to buy and sell rarely align. |
| Grasshopper:
Bitcoin is somewhat similar to a Ponzi scheme in that it's not backed up by any tangible revenue generating assets. Bitcoin's value is based simply on what investors think it's worth, and if they suddenly decide it's worthless, then a lot of people will get burned. |
| fallacy:
Holding investments long term regardless of short term outcome is the opposite of gambeling. Yes, diversifying your investment is a must. I’m never going to buy single stocks because the risk that any company can go to zero at some point is too high (I learned that the hard way in the 90’s with MCI). Then you have something like Cisco system stock which still is used but never recovered from its crash in 2001 which makes no sense just from an inflationary stand point. No the time to buy and sell never align that's why you should just buy and hold. For every win you have trying to day trade you will have a = loss. The worse thing is when you get a few small wins in a row then you grow confidence and go bigger just to watch yourself go straight into the red. Real Estate is a good example of moving your investment to something else. Because of the upfront price that makes a barrier to entry to start that investment. The point is why sell your investment just to hold on to cash long term? |
| fallacy:
--- Quote ---Bitcoin is somewhat similar to a Ponzi scheme in that it's not backed up by any tangible revenue generating assets. Bitcoin's value is based simply on what investors think it's worth, and if they suddenly decide it's worthless, then a lot of people will get burned. --- End quote --- I thought that on its first run up a few years ago but I don't think that anymore. There is this smart youtuber named Barnacules on one of his podcasts he was talking about crypto and Bitcoin. He was saying anyone can start their own cryptocurrency (Why Dogecoin exists) He even started his own Barnacules coin. The problem is to get it seeded with miners, then most of the coins come from the creator himself, when he sells it will kill any value the coin might have gained. He was saying not only was Bitcoin the first but it had the time to be seeded across the world, so much so that not even China cannot take it over with the majority of mining machines at this point and manipulate the code. I feel like Bitcoin is here to stay. I don't believe in any of the altcoins… I get that Etherum is like silver to Bitcoins gold it is like the moon to bitcoins earth. I guess it is alright. Dogecoin this is the most dangerous one. Made successful because of the meme also because it was a joke the creator himself said he does not own any of the coins somehow giving it more legitimacy and trust. The problem is unlike bitcoin there is no cap to how many coins can be mind… any value the coin has will deflate on its own as more and more coins are created. Some companies and Elon Musk are trying to capitalize on the meme by legitimizing it; fundamentally it is not a legit coin to begin with. |
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